According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 25th to August 1st, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8685 yuan/ton to 8400 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.29% during the period, a month on month drop of 3.84%, and a year-on-year drop of 5.92%. The domestic BDO prices have dropped significantly, leading to a decrease in supply, while the main downstream industries have experienced a decline in production, resulting in a reduction in raw material digestion and a continuation of the supply-demand imbalance. Holders actively offer discounts for shipments, causing the market center of gravity to fluctuate downward.
On the supply side, the maintenance status of the Lanshantun River Phase II and III facilities continues, while other facilities are operating stably. The industry supply has decreased, and there is no favorable support from the supply side. BDO supply and sales are affected by negative factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to decline at a low level, and the export of supporting calcium carbide is impacting the market. Some enterprises are accelerating shipments, making flexible transactions, actively shipping, and continuously increasing low-priced sources of goods.. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market has rebounded, and as of 10:00 am on August 1st, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2395 yuan/ton. The weak consolidation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol, as well as the negative impact of BDO cost factors.
On the demand side, the downstream PTMEG and PBT industries have seen a decrease in load, while other industries are operating stably. The overall production on the demand side has declined, resulting in a decrease in the amount of raw material digestion, and the industry’s supply and demand pressure still exists. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, the supply of BDO market will decrease while the demand will increase, but the industry inventory will accumulate and the supply-demand contradiction will intensify. The BDO analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly be dominated by weak consolidation.