According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable and advanced this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2400.00 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2400.00 yuan/ton, indicating an overall stable and advanced trend.

As the end of the year approaches, the overall trading volume of the domestic sodium metabisulfite market has turned weak. This week, the price of the domestic sodium metabisulfite market has remained stable and moving forward. The price range of the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market this week is 2400-2450 yuan/ton. The company’s inventory is about 30%, mainly completing orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to the quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been reported are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

This week, domestic soda ash prices slightly declined, falling by 2.46% within the week, while sulfur prices rebounded slightly, rising by 1.83% within the week. Raw material prices fluctuated, and the overall fluctuation of domestic sodium metabisulfite market prices was limited.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that raw material costs fluctuate, and market trading has turned weak at the end of the year. In the short term, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to consolidate and operate.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have dropped significantly this week. The price of sulfuric acid has dropped from 232.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 207.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 10.75%, and the weekend price has dropped by 23.62% year-on-year.

The upstream market has dropped significantly, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have fluctuated this week, with manufacturers operating at low levels and average inventory levels.

From the upstream market perspective, the sulfur market in the upstream has slightly declined, with sulfur prices dropping from 936.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 910.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 2.85%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.66% over the weekend. At present, the price of sulfur at the port continues to decline, which has a negative impact on the spot market. There is a clear bearish sentiment on the market. In order to stimulate shipments, some refineries have lowered their sulfur prices.

From the perspective of downstream market conditions, the market price of monoammonium phosphate in the downstream market has slightly declined, dropping from 3253.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3220 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.02%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.10% over the weekend. Recently, there has been a decrease in inquiries and weak trading in the ammonium phosphate market. The decrease in pending orders, coupled with the weakening of the raw material market, has led to a continued decline in the price of ammonium phosphate.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late January, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream sulfur market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate and titanium dioxide has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.

Since January 11th, the domestic MIBK market has experienced a significant decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market reported 15333 yuan/ton on January 11th and 14500 yuan/ton on January 19th, a cumulative decrease of 5.43%

This week, the acetone market saw a narrow increase. As of now, the negotiated price for acetone in the East China region is between 6850-6900 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the market was average this week. At the beginning of the week, with the arrival of port supplies, domestic factories are still in a loss making state. Traders are firm in their offers, with low prices remaining. Petrochemical companies are maintaining stability and shipping according to plan, and downstream demand is following up. Purchasing sentiment is average, and transactions are flat.

From a terminal perspective, the intention to purchase large orders has decreased, and the demand is mostly for small orders to follow up. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and tend to operate targeted contracts, but traders are holding onto the market and reluctant to sell, resulting in a significant increase in small order prices.

At present, the operating rate of the domestic MIBK industry is maintained near Liucheng, and the seller lacks confidence in the future market. Low price goods are frequently available, and the intention to make concessions has increased. Business Society predicts a weak performance in the short-term MIBK market.

In 2023, the domestic sulfuric acid market saw a sharp rise and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market will experience a sharp rise and fall in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 286.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 274 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.42% for the whole year. From the trend chart of sulfuric acid prices, it can be seen that the highest price of sulfuric acid in 2023 was 316 yuan/ton in mid September, and the lowest price was 152 yuan/ton in late July, with a maximum annual amplitude of 107.89%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of sulfuric acid has fallen more or risen less, and the market situation has experienced significant ups and downs. The highest increase was 83.75% in August, and the highest decrease was 19.19% in January. In January, the downward trend at the end of 2022 continued, with sulfuric acid prices continuing to decline by 19.19%. The use of spring plowing fertilizers in March provided support for the price of sulfuric acid, with an increase of 15.82%. With the end of spring plowing, the production of phosphate fertilizer enterprises continues to decline, coupled with a significant drop in upstream sulfur prices, sulfuric acid prices continue to decline. In April, the price of sulfuric acid decreased by 9.03%, and in May, the price of sulfuric acid plummeted by 16.64%. In June, the export orders for sulfuric acid increased, and the price of sulfuric acid increased by 7.69%. Entering the third quarter, the demand for autumn fertilizer market began to increase, and the price of sulfuric acid market rapidly increased. The price increased from 152 yuan/ton at the end of July to 306 yuan/ton at the end of September, an increase of 101.32%. Entering the fourth quarter, the price of sulfuric acid fluctuated widely with the rise and fall of upstream sulfur. In October, sulfur prices fell by 8.52%, while sulfuric acid prices fell by 15.69%. In November, sulfur prices surged by 13.07% and sulfuric acid prices surged by 17.05%. Downstream demand weakened in December, and sulfuric acid prices began to decline again.

How will the sulfuric acid market develop in 2024?

In terms of production capacity, as of September 2023, China’s sulfuric acid production capacity is about 139 million tons, with a growth rate of 4%, and the scale of production capacity is steadily expanding. According to data statistics, a total of 30.4 million tons/year of newly built and planned sulfuric acid production capacity will be built in China from 2023 to 2025. From January to October 2023, 5.35 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity will be put into operation, of which 3.4 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity will be commercial, and 1.95 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity will be self used. In 2024, a total of 10.55 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity is planned to be put into operation, of which 7.33 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity is planned for commercial use, and 3.22 million tons/year of sulfuric acid production capacity is planned for self use. The trend of overcapacity in sulfuric acid production is becoming more severe.

From a supply perspective, as of November 2023, the national sulfuric acid production reached 86.802 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. It is expected that in 2024, driven by the steady expansion of production capacity, sulfuric acid production will gradually increase, and supply pressure will further increase.

From the perspective of market demand, the top three downstream consumption proportions of sulfuric acid are diammonium phosphate accounting for 30%, monoammonium phosphate accounting for 21%, and titanium dioxide accounting for 12%. The production capacity utilization rate of downstream products such as phosphate compound fertilizer and titanium dioxide is showing a downward trend, and various downstream market trends are showing a sluggish trend.

From the perspective of imports and exports, the cumulative export volume of sulfuric acid in China from January to November 2023 was 2.2419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.73%. The cumulative import volume of sulfuric acid in China from January to November was 310600 tons, an increase of 16.46% year-on-year. At present, there are 7 domestic sulfuric acid export enterprises, and the pressure on sulfuric acid supply is increasing. The number of sulfuric acid export enterprises may continue to increase in 2024.

Overall, the sulfuric acid market will continue to face downward pressure from oversupply in 2024.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 12th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 131000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95% compared to the beginning of the month and a decrease of 76.04% compared to the same period last year.

Since January, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has been operating weakly. In recent times, the upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate market has been operating weakly, with prices of upstream spodumene concentrate falling and insufficient cost support. Downstream demand for high nickel materials has followed slowly, and market transactions are mainly based on long-term cooperative orders, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Upstream lithium carbonate: Recently, industrial grade lithium carbonate has maintained a downward trend. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic mixed average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 91600 yuan/ton on January 11, 2024, which is 1.93% lower than the average price of 93400 yuan/ton on January 7, providing weak support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, the current market is still lacking in positive support and the trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may experience weak consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 14th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6360 yuan/ton, which is 6510 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on January 8th. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid decreased by 2.30%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 14th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6316 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.56% compared to the reference average price of 6416 yuan/ton on January 8th.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has fallen this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has slightly increased this week, with increased cost support. However, the phosphoric acid market remains sluggish, and the demand side has not improved yet. At present, the shipment of phosphoric acid in the market is not smooth, and downstream procurement intentions are weak. Manufacturers and distributors have lowered their prices steadily. As of January 14th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 5800-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5300-6950 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been on the rise, and the overall market trading situation is relatively active. The market is driving steadily, with traders and downstream buyers showing good enthusiasm, and yellow phosphorus manufacturers collectively increasing prices. The focus of new transactions has shifted upwards. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 23800-24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. In terms of raw material phosphate ore. The domestic phosphate ore market has been operating steadily this week. At present, the supply of phosphate ore in the field is still tight, with some areas experiencing tight spot prices. The downstream of phosphate ore is mainly for procurement of essential goods. As of January 14th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton, with some regions offering higher prices around 1150 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has continued to weaken in recent days. Although the raw material yellow phosphorus market is improving, the demand in the phosphoric acid market is not good, and downstream replenishment willingness is weak. The market is still bearish, and it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will be weak and consolidating. It is recommended to observe the trend of raw materials and changes in demand.

Domestic sodium metabisulfite price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite continued to decline this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2433.33 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% during the week.

Due to the continued weakness in raw material prices, some enterprises have slightly lowered the factory price of sodium metabisulfite this week, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to continue to decline. This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range is between 2200-2450 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to quotes from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some companies that have not been quoted are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturer. For more details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

This week, domestic soda ash prices fell by 3.42%, while sulfur prices increased by 1.08%. Overall, upstream raw material prices continue to show a downward trend, and the continuous decline in raw material costs will further suppress the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society analysts believe that raw material costs continue to decline, and in the short term, the overall price of sodium metabisulfite in the domestic market is weak and difficult to improve.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 7th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6416 yuan/ton, which is 0.52% lower than the reference average price of 6450 yuan/ton on January 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 7th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6510 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.06% compared to the reference average price of 6580 yuan/ton on January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has fallen this week. The weak operation of raw material yellow phosphorus results in insufficient cost support. After the holiday, the phosphoric acid market continued to be sluggish, with fewer inquiries and relatively quiet transactions. Phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors have lowered prices for shipments, leading to bearish sentiment in the market. As of January 7th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 5850-6600 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5500-7150 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the domestic yellow phosphorus market has remained stable, and the overall market trading situation is relatively light. This week, the market has been driving steadily, with weak downstream demand. Traders and downstream buyers have average enthusiasm for purchasing goods, and downstream purchases are mostly cautious. New orders have limited transactions, and demand is mainly in demand. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. The domestic phosphate ore market has risen this week. After the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market was mild, and downstream demand for procurement and stocking was high. After the holiday, some mining enterprises in certain regions of Sichuan and Guangxi in China will implement new prices for new orders, increasing the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by about 10-30 yuan/ton. The phosphate ore market in Guizhou and Yunnan regions is operating steadily. At present, there is a tight supply of phosphate ore in some regions, and the on-site spot circulation is tight. As of January 7th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been continuously weakening in recent days. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is poor, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Downstream on-demand procurement, weak demand, and limited market trading. The short-term market situation is difficult to improve, and it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will continue to operate weakly.

Domestic sodium metabisulfite price trend chart

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite slightly declined this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2500.00 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.67% during the week.

After the holiday, the prices of upstream raw materials such as soda ash and sulfur continued to decline weakly, and the cost of raw materials remained low. In January, manufacturers lowered the factory price of sodium metabisulfite, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite back down. This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range is between 2300-2500 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to quotes from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some companies that have not been quoted are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturer. For more details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

This week, domestic soda ash prices fell by 5.02%, sulfur prices fell by 5%, and the continued decline in raw material costs will exert certain pressure on the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that as costs continue to decline, the overall price of sodium metabisulfite in the domestic market will be under pressure.

On December 28th, the crude benzene commodity index was 101.65, an increase of 1.13 points from yesterday, a decrease of 22.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and an increase of 232.84% from the lowest point of 30.54 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the crude benzene market fell first and then rose in December 2023. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 6216.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6491.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.42%.

Crude oil prices: International crude oil futures plummeted by over 3% on December 28th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.77 per barrel, a decrease of $2.34 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $77.15 per barrel, a decrease of $2.39 or 3.0%. Red Sea shipping has gradually resumed, geopolitical risks have eased, and oil prices are under pressure. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the current sustained rebound in oil prices is mainly affected by geopolitical tensions. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand game remains the main logic of transactions: on the supply side, OPEC+deepens production cuts, and the expected increase in US production will show a trade-off. On the demand side, the depreciation of the US dollar and the expectation of a Fed rate cut will boost oil prices. Overall, the short-term impact of the geopolitical situation on oil prices will continue to explore upward space, while the medium – and long-term supply and demand will exacerbate the broad fluctuations in the oil market

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has fluctuated, with recent declines followed by gains.

In December 2023, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was lowered twice and raised twice, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan/ton. Currently, it is being implemented at 7250 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7063 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of pure benzene slightly decreased at the beginning of this month, and has been rising since mid month. On December 1st, the price was 6692 yuan/ton; On December 29th, the price was at 7230 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.03% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.68% from the same period last year.

In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market in December basically followed the overall trend of crude oil, falling first and then rising. In the first half of the month, it continued to decline, and in the second half, it steadily rose and recovered the month’s decline, ultimately closing up 8.03%. Sinopec’s listed price first fell and then rose, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuated, and by the end of the month, mainstream manufacturers in the main production areas were executing 7200 yuan/ton, indicating a strong overall operation of the industrial chain.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has had relatively small fluctuations since entering October, with mixed ups and downs.

Although crude benzene belongs to coal chemical commodities, the downstream commodity of crude benzene, hydrogenated benzene, as a substitute for pure benzene, follows the fluctuations of the pure benzene market. Therefore, the trend of the crude benzene market is mainly influenced by the pure benzene industry chain. In December, the pure benzene market first fell and then rose, and the trend of crude benzene was basically the same. At the beginning of the month, it was dragged down by the decline of crude oil, and the mainstream market auction prices continued to decline. At the end of the month, it was boosted by the continuous rise of crude oil, and auction prices rose for three consecutive weeks. In terms of supply, as the cost of coke enterprises entering the furnace decreases, their enthusiasm for starting production has rebounded, and the operating rate of coking enterprises has steadily increased. Currently, the overall supply of crude benzene is relatively stable. In terms of demand, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has not changed much recently, and they are maintaining on-demand replenishment of crude benzene, while there is still support for rigid demand. In the future, as crude oil prices approach the end of the month, the styrene market is falling, which has a certain drag on the pure benzene market. The spot market is following the downward trend. In addition, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have recently started operating lower, and the market expects a slight decline in future production due to profit influence. The demand for crude benzene is slightly weakened, and some bearish factors are affecting the continued upward resistance of the crude benzene market in the future, which is likely to be weak and volatile.