1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, after the festival, the NMP price rose significantly. The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the week was 26566 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 27666 yuan/ton, up 4.14%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation in the domestic electronic NMP market was 28500-30000 yuan/ton. It is understood that due to tight supply, some factories stopped reporting. It was discussed that due to road transportation obstruction, the arrival of NMP raw materials was limited, resulting in insufficient NMP operation in some regions. The supply was tightened, the NMP price and goods were tightened, and the downstream inquiry was active. Under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the demand increased.

After the festival, the BDO market was mainly on the sidelines. Although the manufacturers had a strong intention to set prices, and the published auction prices were mostly high and stable, the market prices in the middle and late weeks had a slight upward trend, the range was not about 200 yuan/ton, but the downstream receiving intention was not strong, it was difficult to make a deal at high prices, and the buying and selling atmosphere was light.

3、 Future market forecast

The NMP analysts of the business agency believe that the raw materials are still at a high level, the cost support is obvious, and the downstream procurement is active. It is expected that the NMP market will operate at a high level in the near future, and the price may continue to rise.

Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the PC market rose in September, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of September 30, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of the business community was about 19000 yuan/ton, up or down by+10.14% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic market of bisphenol A rose sharply in September. At the beginning of the month, the market accepted the market of more overhaul devices last month. The domestic supply declined, the supply of imported goods was generally supplemented, the price of the external market rose, and business confidence was strengthened. Before the Mid Autumn Festival, phenolics and ketones continued to rise, which came from increased cost pressure. After the festival, factories returned to the market increased. The factory mainly supplies contract users. After a sharp rise in bisphenol A, the downstream follow-up at the end of the month was weakened, and the actual orders were seriously insufficient. From the downstream perspective, the rising trend has slowed down, the overall demand enthusiasm is not high, the high level negotiation is insufficient, and the short-term bisphenol A offer maintains a strong operation.

Bisphenol A market rose significantly in September, and PC cost side support continued to strengthen. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises changed slightly this month, and was generally stable at more than 60%. At present, the supply of goods on the site is still abundant, and the supply side pressure is limited. Some enterprises have parking plans in the middle of the month, and the supply is expected to be tightened. The production restriction policies of downstream enterprises, such as high level power restriction, have been gradually lifted, but the actual demand has not improved significantly. After the rise of superimposed PC, the acceptance declined, and the terminal enterprise’s stock operation stopped at the end of the month. This month, PC enterprises were forced by the cost pressure to keep the ex factory price rising. After the rise, the merchants shipped with the profit plate at the end of the month, which caused a drag on the spot price center, and the price stagnated.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the domestic PC market rose in September, the upstream bisphenol A market rose significantly, and the cost side continued to exert pressure on PC. In terms of supply, there are abundant goods on the market, while in terms of demand, the goods are weak, and the stock before the festival is not as expected. The buyer’s acceptance of the price after the rise is not good, and the market is limited in the atmosphere of pursuing the rise. The real deal is mainly scattered small orders. Although the increase at the end of the month was hindered, due to the support of the cost side, it is expected that the spot price of PC will be strong after the festival.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the domestic market of PA6 rose first and then fell in September, and the spot prices of various brands were adjusted in an overall shock. As of September 30, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of the sample enterprise for China Bond was about 14000 yuan/ton, up or down by+1.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: In terms of upstream, caprolactam market rose first and then fell in September, pure benzene as raw material rose in shock, and caprolactam cost support was average. At the beginning of this month, caprolactam undertook the increase in the prices of equipment maintenance enterprises of production enterprises, and the supply pressure was fair. Downstream enterprises purchased caprolactam on demand, and the mid month turnover gradually improved. In the second half of the month after the increase, buyers gradually resisted and purchased at lower prices. In addition, the supply of caprolactam in the field has increased due to the restart of some manufacturers’ devices. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by the weak situation in the short term.

Upstream caprolactam market trend rose and fell back, and PA6 cost end support fluctuated in September. Within the month, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants had a limited change and remained above 60% on the whole. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of aggregation enterprises is poor. The production and consumption of terminal enterprises in this month are in the traditional peak season. The quantity of goods shipped in the first half of the month has gradually increased, but the buyer’s wait-and-see atmosphere has increased after the spot price has risen. The operating rate of the terminal enterprises is fair, and the demand release is less than that of previous years. It is reported that a new PA6 unit will be put into operation next month, which will affect the atmosphere of goods preparation before the end of the month. The speed of goods delivery in the yard will decrease, resulting in a narrow increase in inventory. At present, the operators are bearish about the future market. Traders often offer profit concessions when they go along with the market. Buyers buy up but not down. They are cautious in preparing goods.

3、 Future market forecast:

Analysts from the business community believe that: in September, the spot price of PA6 fell back after rising, the price of caprolactam fluctuated, and the cost of PA6 supported fluctuations. As the industry worried about the news of capacity expansion next month, the market momentum decreased. It is expected that the market of PA6 will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market was corrected after the rise in September, and the spot prices of all wire drawing brands rose and fell. As of September 30, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8158.33 yuan/ton, up or down by+1.24% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, propylene market rose this month. In the middle of the month, the supply side contracted periodically, and some enterprises restarted and overhauled. Affected by this, spot goods on the market decreased, supporting the price rise. The demand of downstream enterprises is higher due to the removal of power and production restriction, traditional peak demand season and other factors. Although the fluctuation of crude oil in September superimposed on the impact of macroeconomic pessimism, the supply and demand of propylene market were weak. At the same time, the export data in July and August showed that propylene imports decreased, import resources decreased, domestic propylene capacity utilization increased, and the market rose on support.

The price of propylene rose, the price of crude oil at the far end fluctuated, and the PP cost in September was generally supported. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises was adjusted by a narrow margin in September, and the overall load of the domestic industry was more than 70%. In terms of inventory, due to the rise of PP price in the middle of the month, buyers have limited acceptance of the high offer. In the middle of the month, there is a certain amount of accumulated inventory, while the domestic inventory at the end of the month has decreased significantly, so the pressure on spot is fair. In terms of terminal enterprises, the load of terminal enterprises is generally higher in the peak demand season. Plastic weaving enterprises and BOPP enterprises had a relatively significant demand, but the consumption growth in the second half of the month was less than expected, the merchants’ mentality weakened, and the offer fell back.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 30, the spot price of domestic fiber PP had risen in a narrow range. The mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is about 8200 yuan/ton, which is+2.29% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month, and -10.05% lower than the same period last year. In this month, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, was stable, the offer of spunbonded non-woven fabrics was stable, and the demand of terminal enterprises was operating in a narrow range. The digestion speed of nonwoven terminal products is acceptable, and the enterprise prefers to just take the goods for fiber PP replenishment. The delivery and investment of fiber materials on the site are general, and the fiber material market is firmly supported by the cost side, which may still maintain a stable operation in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market fell by a narrow margin in September. As of September 30, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 9100 yuan/ton, up or down by -0.73% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and down by – 4.21% year-on-year. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic, and neighboring Japan has witnessed explosive development recently. There is rebound in some areas of China, but the overall epidemic prevention pressure is not strong, and the pulling effect on medical melt blown fabric materials is limited. The domestic and foreign demand has not significantly helped, and the support for spot prices is poor. The inventory of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP will still run sideways.

Future market forecast

PP analysts from the business community believed that the overall polypropylene market rose slightly in September, the raw propylene market continued to rise, the far upstream crude oil fluctuated, and the PP cost side support was fair. Terminal enterprises just need to support the spot, but the support has weakened after the price rise. The social inventory position at the end of the month was not high, and the buyer and seller were cautious in their operation. The traditional peak season demand volume is lower than expected, and PP market is expected to be adjusted after the festival.

In September, the domestic methanol market rose unilaterally. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic methanol market in East China in early September was 2528 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3012 yuan/ton. The price increased by 19.17% in the month, with the maximum amplitude of 20.35%, down 16.61% year on year.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have risen month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls in August 2022, including 5 kinds of commodities that have risen more than 5%, accounting for 38.5% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were diesel (12.09%), gasoline (10.91%) and dimethyl ether (7.04%). There were 4 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities that declined by more than 5%, accounting for 23.1% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three decline products were LNG (-9.63%), WTI crude oil (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-5.90%). The average rise and fall this month was 1.84%.

Summary of methanol market prices by regions as of September 30:

Region, price

Qinghai region, no quotation

In Shanxi Province, the mainstream ex factory price refers to 2560 yuan/ton factory cash

Liaoning, about 2740-2760 yuan/ton

Fujian Province, 2820-2860 yuan/ton

Two Lakes region, about 2900-2915 yuan/ton

Anhui Province, about 2840-2900 yuan/ton

Henan, 2950 yuan/ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market rose in shock. The main reasons are the short term shortage of supply and the short term rise in demand. The downstream receiving price has risen significantly. There is a demand for goods in stock. The traders’ mentality is stable and improving. The quotations of major manufacturers at ports and in the mainland have been continuously raised. Some manufacturers have been bidding well, mainly at a premium starting price. However, the rise in freight has restrained the growth of the internal real estate area.

In the first ten days of this month, the domestic methanol market rose sharply and fell back. In the early stage, the methanol price rose significantly. Recently, the rise slowed down, and prices in some regions fell back. The international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, while the coal price supported at a high level. At present, the main reasons that affect the methanol price are supply and demand. Most of the early maintenance devices have been restarted, and new devices such as Jiutai and Kunpeng have been put into operation. The supply has increased. However, the demand is general, most of them are rigid, and there is no sign of increase in the short term. Traders are mainly wait-and-see, and the international demand is poor. The rise of methanol market has slowed down, and the market is mainly volatile.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic methanol market in East China rose in shock, and some traders had no offers. Although the international crude oil fluctuates downward, the coal price is firm, the raw materials support the methanol market, and there is a strong intention to stock up downstream before the festival. There is a slight difference between regions. Some regions are short of supply and have strong demand. Some regions have sufficient supply and general demand. The trend of the methanol market is slightly different between regions.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in August 2022, there were 5 kinds of rising commodities, 3 kinds of falling commodities, and 0 kinds of zero rising and falling commodities in the methanol industry price list. The main commodities that rose were dimethyl ether (7.04%), chloroform (4.63%) and formaldehyde (3.87%); The main commodities falling were acetic acid (-9.25%), DMF (-5.56%) and methanol (-0.59%). The average rise and fall this month was 0.4%.

In terms of external market, as of September 29, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 366.00-367.00 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. The US Gulf methanol market closed at 105.75-106.75 cents/gallon, down 1 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 350.00-351.00 euros/ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 366.00-367.00 USD/ton, 2 USD/ton

Europe and America, Gulf of America, 105.75-106.75 cents/gallon, – 1 cents/gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 350.00-351.00 euro/ton, 0 euro/ton

The firm coal price supports the production cost of enterprises. Methanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be strong.

According to the data monitored by the business community, at the beginning of the month, the price of the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 6800.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 6425.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.51%. The current price rose 17.89% year on year.

potassium nitrate

In September, the domestic potassium nitrate market showed a downward trend. It can be seen from the figure above that the potassium nitrate market has declined for three consecutive months since 2022. This is mainly because the global potash fertilizer market is still sluggish and liquidity is low. The supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the price has fallen more than once. The supply of goods in the market is still sufficient. Downstream procurement remained just in demand, the market transaction was relatively cold, and the potassium nitrate market fell in shock. According to the statistics of the business community, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 6200-6500 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation varies according to the procurement situation.

The domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell in September. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 3900-4200 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3900-4200 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3800-4000 yuan/ton. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a high level, and there may be a downward adjustment plan in October.

The domestic supply of potassium chloride is sufficient, the price continues to fall, and the cost support is average. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of September 28, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11266.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of last Friday (September 23), 4.25% lower than that of August 28, and 39.43% lower than that of last three months.

Recent (9.23-9.28) epichlorohydrin market is stable and weak. Recently, the price of raw propylene has risen slightly, and the cost has been supported to some extent. Some factories have high inventories, and the enterprises give way to profits and reduce the inventory. They are mainly active in shipping. Downstream stock preparation is gradually approaching the end. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the focus of negotiations is mainly on stability, with narrow fluctuations.

On September 27, the benchmark price of upstream propylene was 7530.60 yuan/ton, up 6.06% compared with 7100.60 yuan/ton on September 1.

The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 20500.00 on September 27, an increase of 5.13% compared with September 1 (19500.00).

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, at present, the cost support still exists, the supply side is abundant, the demand side is insufficient, and the market trading rhythm slows down near the holidays. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will operate weakly and stably in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 27, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products this week was 16100.00 yuan/ton, down 1.83% compared with the same period last week. The PMMA price is narrow and weak, and the overall market price fluctuation range is small. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16100 yuan/ton. The PMMA market price is mainly stable, the focus of negotiation is narrow and weak, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced, The operating rate is stable.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16100.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable, with a slight downward trend in prices. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16100 yuan/ton. The merchants actively shipped goods and took orders with profits. Compared with last week, the price fell 1.83%. The PMMA price was stable, with the overall supply and demand balance at present, and the downstream just needed to purchase. At present, the focus of negotiations is weak, and the supply side is normal, The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 16600 yuan/ton.

Upstream phenol: As of September 26, the phenol market has risen slightly. The ex factory price of phenol products of Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has risen by 200 yuan/ton to 11100 yuan/ton. As the supply of goods is tight, people are reluctant to sell, and the price remains high in the short term.

Rubber and plastic index: On September 26, the rubber and plastic index was 705 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 33.49% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 33.52% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the PMMA analysts of the business community, the PMMA price is mainly stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations, and the mainstream price is about 16100 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the trend of the rare earth price index has continued to rise recently, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry has improved. On September 26, the rare earth index was 648 points, up 19 points from yesterday, down 35.65% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 139.11% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of the domestic light rare earth market has risen. The prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all risen in different ways. On the 26th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium rose by 22500 yuan/ton to 785000 yuan/ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 15000 yuan/ton to 650000 yuan/ton, and the price of neodymium oxide rose by 40000 yuan/ton to 745000 yuan/ton, The price of neodymium metal rose by 15000 yuan/ton to 875000 yuan/ton, the price of praseodymium metal rose by 30000 yuan/ton to 875000 yuan/ton, and the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 20000 yuan/ton to 745000 yuan/ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market has risen.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market rose. The downstream magnetic material factories continued to replenish their stocks before the National Day holiday. In addition, the rare earth industry gradually entered the peak season, and some downstream businesses started to stock up. The demand increased, and the price of rare earth market rose. Due to the impact on the production of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some epidemic areas, the supply is tight, and the market price continues to rise. Recently, the sales of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles have increased month on month, and the demand for spot purchases has risen, supporting the rise of rare earth market. Downstream demand improved, replenishment increased, traders offered actively, and the domestic light rare earth market rose.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has improved. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.395 million and 2.383 million respectively in August 2022, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 32.1%, both higher than last month. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August were 691000 and 666000, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2 times and 1 time, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record high. The production and sales of automobiles rose significantly, and the demand in the new energy field was still supported. The price of light rare earth in the domestic market was favorable, and the price of rare earth rose.

The heavy rare earth market trend rose. On the 26th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.275 million yuan/ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.26 million yuan/ton, and the price of dysprosium metal was 2.975 million yuan/ton. The heavy rare earth price trend rose. The production enterprises gradually started construction, and the rare earth market atmosphere improved. In addition, the export of Myanmar was limited. The global supply of rare earth was relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth on the market has risen.

In addition, the first batch of rare earth total amount control indicators in 2022 met expectations, and the industry pattern continued to optimize. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the total control index for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022. In 2022, the total control indicators of the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 109200 tons and 104800 tons respectively. The total control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in the first two batches in 2022 are 210000 tons and 202000 tons respectively, up sharply year on year. However, the demand gap for rare earth still exists, and the situation of oversupply has not improved.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, downstream procurement is limited. However, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have increased recently, and some enterprises have gradually started replenishment. In addition, with the start of rare earth peak season, business community analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market to rise.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the early price of 9000 yuan/ton, up 26.76% year on year.

Recently, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, the domestic PX operation rate is about 70%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical is operating stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical is operating stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical is operating stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical is operating normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical is operating stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong is operating at full load, the unit of Qilu Petrochemical is operating stably, and the unit of Urumqi Petrochemical is operating at about 50%, The domestic supply of paraxylene is relatively normal. Recently, the supply of overseas devices is relatively normal. The crude oil price has declined slightly this week, and the domestic price of paraxylene is temporarily stable. This week, the price of PX external market fell slightly. As of the 22nd, the closing price in Asia was 1054-1056 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea and 1072-1074 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has not changed much. The closing price of PX external market declined slightly, and the price of domestic paraxylene market has temporarily stabilized.

The crude oil price fell slightly this week. As of the 22nd of this week, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States had reached 83.49 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures had reached 90.46 dollars/barrel. The boots of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase landed at 75 basis points. In addition, the repeated outbreaks depressed the demand for crude oil, and the trend of international oil prices declined. As of the week ended September 16, US crude oil inventory increased by 1.1 million barrels to 4307.7 million barrels, and analysts expected an increase of 2.2 million barrels. According to EIA report, the inventory of Cushing crude oil in Oklahoma, the delivery place of NYMEX crude oil futures, increased by 343000 barrels, and the international oil price closed down slightly, which affected the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market temporarily.

The downstream PTA market price fell slightly this week, and the average PTA market price was 6550-6650 yuan/ton as of the 23rd. The PTA maintenance device was restarted, and the industry started to rise to about 73.5%. In addition, the terminal weaving has been gradually relieved with the high-temperature weather recently, and the starting load has continued to rise. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is more than 71%. However, the willingness of weaving to stock up raw materials is difficult to reach the level of previous years even in the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” stock level. Therefore, the demand side of polyester remained flat, which led to the increased pressure on polyester factories to go to the warehouse, and it was difficult to effectively improve the commencement. On the whole, the downstream PTA price fell slightly, and the domestic paraxylene market price trend was temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst of the business community, believes that the current crude oil price is still supported, and the downstream construction of the terminal has risen slightly. Although the overall demand is expected to be good, the actual demand of the downstream has not risen much. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will be stable in the later period, and there is no lack of a small upward trend.