1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, this week’s soda ash market was stable and small. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price was about 1902 yuan / ton, up 49.37% over the same period last year. On July 11, the commodity index of light soda ash was 97.54, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.24% compared with 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 54.46% compared with 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the price in East China is stable and small, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly high.

Upstream and demand: the turnover of upstream raw salt is good, the market price is slightly up, and it is expected that the finishing market of raw salt will mainly run in the later stage. The price of downstream glass rose slightly this week. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of glass rose slightly this week. The average price of glass was 35.35 yuan / square meter last Friday and 35.59 yuan / square meter this Friday. The price of glass rose within the week by 0.68%. In terms of different regions, in Shahe of North China, the recent situation of enterprises leaving the warehouse is better, the inventory of manufacturers is low, the supply of traders is not much, and the spot market price is rising. The overall trend of the market in South China is acceptable, with the focus of transaction moving up. Central China is in a good situation of outbound, and downstream rigid demand procurement is more active.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 27th week of 2021 (7.5-7.9), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling, and 3 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were caustic soda (0.95%) and PVC (0.14%); The average rise and fall this week was 0.22%.

Business analysts believe that: the domestic soda price is stable, the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable, and manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. The price of downstream glass is strong, but the high price of soda is still in a wait-and-see state. Overall, soda late market consolidation operation based, specific to the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate at the beginning of the week was 7090.00 yuan / ton, while the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate at the end of the week was 7190.00 yuan / ton, up 1.41%. The current price is up 6.68% month on month, and the current price is up 15.73% year on year.

Recently, the domestic potash market is rising. The supply of potash in the market is tight, and the price keeps rising. Most of the supply is concentrated in the hands of large-scale traders, who are reluctant to sell. Large domestic manufacturers resume production, but mainly deliver early orders. Potash continues to rise. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6650-7500 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers fluctuated: on July 9, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2450 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On July 9, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. did not offer potassium chloride for the time being. Recent potassium chloride market remains high consolidation, inventory tension, is expected to be high strong later.

Potash analysts from business news agency believe that the domestic potash fertilizer market is recovering production in the near future. Most of the imported potash sources are concentrated in the hands of traders, and the market supply is still tight. It is expected that the price of potash will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see（ The above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

Entering July, the propane market welcomed the rising market and made a good start at the beginning of the month. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of propane in Shandong was 4543.25 yuan / ton on July 1 and 4838.25 yuan / ton on July 6, with an increase of 6.49% during the period and 66.55% compared with the same period last year.

As of July 6, the mainstream propane prices in different regions of China are as follows:

region Specifications July 6th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4650-4800 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4550-4870 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4700-4900 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4640-4740 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4450-4906 yuan / ton

After entering July, Shandong propane market prices continued to rise. After the introduction of CP in July, propane and butane all rose sharply, and the high import cost brought obvious boost to the domestic market. The sharp rise of the international crude oil market has also brought good support to the market. Markets in the north and the South all rose to varying degrees. As of June 6, North China in the north market continued to push up, while Shandong remained stable in general and rose sporadically, while Northeast China mainly kept stable prices. In the South China market, prices have been rising steadily, and most of them are at a high level.

Saudi Aramco CP announced in July that propane and butane all rose. Propane was 620 US dollars / ton, up 90 US dollars / ton from last month; Butane is 620 US dollars / ton, up 95 US dollars / ton from last month.

On July 5, international oil prices rose. The US futures market was closed during the Independence Day holiday. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was 77.16 US dollars / barrel, up 0.99 US dollars or 1.3%. The negotiations between the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) reached a deadlock again, and the meeting was suddenly called to a halt. As soon as the news came out, oil prices rose sharply.

At present, although the northern market continues to rise, the increase is obviously narrower than that in the earlier stage. The inventory of refineries is mostly at a low level. In addition, the port price is high and firm, so the market is still good. The enthusiasm for entering the market is better under the fear of rising in the downstream. However, due to the influence of seasonal factors, the current propane market demand is weak, which brings some constraints to the rising market. It is expected that the propane market will rise first and then fall.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, in the first half of 2021, the price of domestic refined oil rose all the way. The price of domestic 92% gasoline reached 7981 yuan / ton, up 39.85%, up 61.32% year on year; The domestic 0 ᦇ diesel price was 6327 yuan / ton, up 30.08%, up 32.95% year on year. The main reason is that on the one hand, the international crude oil price has risen sharply, on the other hand, the domestic consumer demand has increased, and finally, the domestic policy is favorable for the price of refined oil, and the domestic refined oil price has risen sharply in the first half of the year.

In more than half of 2021, the retail price of refined oil in China experienced nine increases in the first half of the year, one decrease and two stalls. After offsetting the rise and fall, the domestic gasoline price increased by 1355 yuan / ton and the diesel price increased by 1405 yuan / ton. The domestic supply and demand situation is relatively stable, and the start-up of the local refining industry remains at a high level. Even though some units are overhauled one after another in the second quarter, the temperature is moderate, and the domestic travel situation is increasing, which supports the price of gasoline. In addition, the demand for agricultural summer harvest and outdoor infrastructure is high, so the price of diesel also rises correspondingly. The price trend of raw crude oil market rose sharply, supporting the sharp rise of domestic oil product prices.

Crude oil: international crude oil prices rose sharply in the first half of the year, with the closing price of WTI US crude oil at 72.98 at the end of June, reaching a two-year high. The favorable situation at both sides of supply and demand has become the main factor supporting the rise of international crude oil futures price. In the first quarter of 2021, while the scale of OPEC + production reduction remained basically unchanged, Saudi Arabia implemented additional production reduction again. In addition, the global epidemic situation was better controlled, the international vaccination was accelerated, and the demand for crude oil increased. In addition, during the period, the United States was affected by the cold wave, Saudi oil town was attacked and other special factors supported the international oil price, and the crude oil market price continued to rise. Although OPEC + reached an agreement to gradually increase production in the later stage, crude oil prices suffered a certain blow, OPEC and IEA both raised their crude oil demand expectations, which was good for supporting international oil prices. After that, as the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States relaxed the blockade, the peak of oil consumption in the United States in summer came, and the demand for crude oil increased significantly, which boosted the optimism of the market. Finally, the negotiations between the United States and Iran have not yet been reached, the increase of Iran’s crude oil export is expected to be further delayed, all kinds of favorable factors are superimposed to support the international oil price, the crude oil market price rises sharply, the domestic oil product market is supported, and the price rises sharply in the first half of the year.

The first quarter coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, and the domestic gasoline demand increased. In addition, the domestic epidemic situation was well controlled, which was good for the demand of diesel oil. The major refineries gradually increased the start-up of diesel oil, and the output increased relatively; In the second quarter, the overhaul and restart of some atmospheric and vacuum distillation units coexisted, but in the later period, the operation rate of the refinery rose, the supply side increased from where it was located, but the demand also increased correspondingly. In terms of gasoline demand, the domestic temperature is appropriate, the travel radius of the public has increased, and there is a certain demand for goods preparation and storage in the market. In terms of diesel oil, the summer harvest in northern China has started one after another, the agricultural oil consumption may increase gradually, the demand for diesel oil in engineering infrastructure, logistics and transportation industries continues to pick up, and the terminal demand for diesel oil has strong support. Positive demand superimposed, domestic oil prices continued to rise.

On the policy side: on the one hand, the increasing frequency of domestic tax inspection has led to the shortage of ticket carrying resources, and the difficulty and cost of main overseas procurement are high. On the other hand, on June 12, China imposed a consumption tax on imported light cycle, mixed aromatics and other oil blending raw materials, which has a huge impact on domestic low-cost invisible resources, and has formed a strong support for domestic diesel prices, which is affected by the favorable domestic policies, The market price of refined oil is rising.

In the first half of the year, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in domestic main refineries was about 78%. As of June 2021, the cumulative output of gasoline was 71.4262 million tons, up 4.44% year on year; The cumulative output of diesel oil was 92.2779 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.89%. In addition, the gasoline inventory of Shandong independent refineries has always maintained a low level, so the gasoline prices of various manufacturers continue to climb to the highest level in recent years.

On the whole, the global economy and demand are still expected to improve in the second half of the year. There is still room for international oil prices to rise. The recovery of major economies such as China, Europe and the United States supports crude oil prices. However, there are also great uncertainties in international crude oil prices, and the US Iraq talks are still concerned. In terms of domestic demand, the domestic economy is improving, and the impact of “golden nine silver ten”, domestic demand may be at a high level, but the average operating rate in the second half of the year will remain at a high level as a whole, so the supply side is expected to perform well. Analysts from business news agency believe that domestic refined oil prices will still be adjusted upward in the second half of the year, supported by high international crude oil prices and superimposed positive demand.

The market of MTBE fluctuated in a narrow range, and the transaction turned light. According to business news agency data, as of July 5, the price of MTBE was 6196 yuan / ton, up 4.15% month on month and 58.21% year on year.

After the price rose to a high level, it encountered downstream conflict. In addition, the prices of other raw materials such as alkylation and mixed aromatics were 400-600 yuan / ton lower than those of MTBE, which put some pressure on the MTBE market. With the end of the month approaching, and the traffic restrictions in various places this week, the demand was low, so the merchants considered shipping and sold in advance.

In terms of external market, as of July 2, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by US $7.5/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $799.5-801.5/t. The closing price of European MTBE market increased by US $7.75/t compared with the previous trading day, while FOB ara closed at US $832.5-833/t. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States increased by US $11.43/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf offshore price closed at US $821.33-821.68/t (231.36-231.46 cents / gal).

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Singapore 799.5-801.5 USD / T US $7.5/t

U.S.A FOB Bay USD 821.33-821.68/t US $11.43/t

Europe FOB ARA 832.5-833 USD / T US $7.75/t

Recently, with the start-up of some devices in the north, the supply has increased significantly. Both Minghao chemical and daze chemical have plans to start construction. If the construction starts on schedule, the supply of northern China will increase again. In addition, the price of other raw materials is 400-600 yuan / ton lower than that of MTBE, so the pressure of MTBE sales still exists. Business community MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market will still be downward consolidation.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose in June. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3480 yuan / ton, 4.5% higher than the price of 3330 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 48.72% higher than the same period last year.

The price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose in June. The domestic ammonium nitrate plants operated stably. In the near future, the supply of goods on the site was normal, the goods on the site were in general, the manufacturers’ inventory was not high, the price of coal on the upstream of the terminal was high, and the price of raw material liquid ammonia continued to rise, so the price of ammonium nitrate rose. In the near future, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still many production stops in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start to work normally. Affected by the cost support, the price of ammonium nitrate market rises. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2800-3000 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 4100-4300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose in June. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2316.67 yuan / ton, up 3.73% from 2233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Shanxi Xinghua quoted 2300 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2350 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2500 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market is general. In June, the price trend of nitric acid market rises, and the price of raw nitric acid rises, which forms a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate continues to rise.

The price of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream market rose slightly in June. By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4433.33 yuan / ton, up 4.31% from 4250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price has broken through the 4000 mark, reaching a five-year high. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the dual effects of higher cost and tight supply and demand. On the one hand, after the May Day holiday, with the support of inflation expectations, domestic commodities ushered in a new round of rising cycle, especially the upstream products of liquid ammonia, such as coal and methanol, rose sharply. In addition, the urea market has soared recently, and most of the low-level ammonia enterprises have concentrated on producing urea, which exacerbates the shortage of liquid ammonia. Jiangsu Hengsheng produces all the urea, and it is difficult to ease the shortage of market supply. The price of upstream liquid ammonia continued to rise, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rose sharply.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal. However, the high price of raw material market has a certain supporting role for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain high in the later period.

Since June, the domestic cocoon and silk market is still in a high shock adjustment, but all the gains have narrowed. According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of June 28, the average price of domestic raw silk was 423000 yuan / ton, up 0.95% from the beginning of the month and 47.13% from the same period last year. The average market price of dried cocoons was 139000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 47.87%.

Recently, the purchase of spring cocoons at major cocoon stations in Qilin District, Qujing City, Yunnan Province is coming to an end. The average price of fresh spring cocoons this year is 65.75 yuan / kg, 24.52 yuan higher than 41.23 yuan / kg in the same period last year, with an increase of 59.4%, a record high. A total of 11700 spring silkworms were planted in the region, with an estimated output of 520000 kg and an output value of 33.9881 million yuan, which could increase the income of silkworm farmers by 12.75 million yuan.

The silkworm farmers in Chaotian District of Guangyuan City, Sichuan province welcomed the spring silkworm harvest season, raising 5400 silkworms and producing 216000 kg cocoons, which led to a direct income increase of 9.72 million yuan. The average purchase price of cocoons this year is 45 yuan / kg, an increase of 10-12 yuan compared with last year. Silkworm farmers are very satisfied with the price of cocoons, which further enhances their confidence and determination in breeding and rearing silkworms.

In Yuexi County, Anhui Province, this year’s spring silkworm production is 28223, cocoon production is 1623 tons, the average market purchase price is 52 yuan / kg, and the output value of fresh cocoons is 84.39 million yuan. The unit price of spring cocoon reached a record high, 57.6% higher than that of the same period last year. The average income of 16700 silkworm farmers in the county exceeded 5000 yuan per season.

Downstream textile weaving off-season, raw material procurement to buy with the main. Shengze area of Jiangsu Province is still limited in production and other factors, so the start-up load is at a low level. The export orders are less affected by the exchange rate and the shortage of port shipping containers than in the same period of previous years, and the production enthusiasm of mainstream weaving mills is not high; In terms of domestic trade, some fabric traders have moderate inquiry enthusiasm, mainly aiming at the early purchase of some best-selling autumn fabrics. Therefore, under the relatively low starting load, the orders of traders are slightly warmer.

Business analysts believe that the current downstream demand is still unclear, wait-and-see sentiment is strong. In the context of macro-control, the second half of the market to grasp the increase in many uncertainties, is expected to be high consolidation in the short term.

As of June 28, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 89666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Monday, increased by 2.67% compared with May 28 and 64.02% compared with the same period last year, according to the data of business club’s block list. This week, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was stable at a high level. At present, the spot supply side of the market continues to be tight, the downstream demand is growing steadily, and the market offer is firm.

Output data of lithium hydroxide: in May 2021, the output of lithium hydroxide of major manufacturers in China was 13800 tons, a month on month decrease of 2.13%.

According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on June 28 was 86600 yuan / ton, down 0.46% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. On June 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90400 yuan / ton, down 0.44% compared with the price at the beginning of the month.

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business news agency, on the whole, under the support of tight market supply and demand, it is expected that the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may rise steadily in the short term, and the specific trend needs more attention to the market information guidance.

1、 Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas this week was 2300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2316 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.72%.

2、 Market analysis

On June 22, Anhui Jinhe quoted about 2350 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / ton for concentrated nitric acid and 1150 yuan / ton for dilute nitric acid, which was the same as last time; Shandong helitainong nitric acid quoted 2400 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time; Anhui Aodeli concentrated nitric acid quoted 2300 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time. The local supply of nitric acid is tight, the shipment is good, and the manufacturer raises the quotation. In some areas, the nitric acid delivery is general, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable.

Upstream liquid ammonia, domestic liquid ammonia Shandong production price rose 0.38% this week. The domestic market price of aniline rose 6.21% this week. The downstream TDI market price in East China rose 2.72% this week.

3、 Future forecast

The price of raw material liquid ammonia is relatively high, and nitric acid analysts of business community expect that nitric acid may continue to be strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam on June 14 was 14000 yuan / ton, and that of domestic liquid caprolactam on June 20 was 13950 yuan / ton. Caprolactam prices are stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of June 20, Nanjing Oriental caprolactam liquid price was RMB 14400 / T, the 400000 T / a unit was normally started and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid of Sinopec is 14100 yuan / ton. The liquid price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam is 14100 yuan / ton, and the 450000 T / a unit is normally started and accepted to be delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is RMB 14100 / T, and the 300000 t / a unit is normally started and accepted to be delivered.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene rose and then vibrated and consolidated. The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was stable, with the price of 7750 yuan / ton. Domestic pure benzene prices continued to rise, boosted by the continuous rise of crude oil and low pure benzene port inventory. Within the week, the inventory of pure benzene in the main port of East China dropped to below 80000 tons. But at present, most of the downstream products are at a loss, and the follow-up of pure benzene slows down, limiting the rise.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of caprolactam in business society believe that due to the overhaul of some enterprises’ equipment, the source of goods is relatively tight. Downstream enterprises have reduced demand and cost prices are strong. It is expected that the stable finishing operation of caprolactam will be the main in the short term.