1、 Price trend
In March 2020, the market center of domestic BDO market fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, the BDO price at the beginning of the month is 9680 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month is 9440 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.48% in the month. The price is 4.53% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
Product: the focus of domestic BDO market fell this month. In the early stage, the start-up of the factory was stable, while in February, the start-up of the downstream was low, and BDO inventory accumulated. After the outbreak and spread of foreign epidemic and crude oil plummeted, the terminal demand was restrained and continued to be depressed, the downstream industries had no support to increase the burden, and the actual consumption capacity of raw materials was limited. Therefore, the strategy of “limiting production and ensuring price” runs through the whole March. Many main factories, such as Merck, Dongyuan, Kaixiang and hecian, stop or reduce the load, and the overall start-up is maintained at about 40%. However, the downstream industries, especially the main downstream PBT factories, are tired of internal and external demand, and the inventory is out of stock. At the same time, on March 25, BDO held an industry meeting to continue the price protection strategy and slow down the price decline. On March 26, Henan energy, Meike, Shannxi chemical and Dongyuan announced the settlement in March and listing in April, all of which decreased by 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous month, aggravating the market bearish mentality. At the same time, the downstream has strong resistance to the high price. Under the pressure of shipment, the space for the carrier to handle the market has increased, and many times the narrow margin has been negotiated. In view of the current high inventory and the difficulty and expectation of the downstream short-term start-up recovery, the export volume is reduced, and the low price supply continues to impact, and the supply and demand game continues.
In terms of devices, Henan hecian 100000 t / a device was put into operation on March 5, and all devices were shut down for maintenance on March 27, and the restart time was not determined; Henan Kaixiang 110000 T / a device was shut down for maintenance on March 15, and the restart time was not determined; the first phase 100000 t / a device load of Lanshan Tunhe was 50%, and the second phase 100000 t / a device was shut down before the Spring Festival, but not restarted; Xinjiang Xinye 60000 T / a device was shut down on March 25, evening In case of maintenance, the restart time is not determined; in case of restart on March 12, the overall load will be maintained at 50%. The operation of 30000 tons of Tianye phase I is stable, and the restart time of other devices is uncertain. The overall load of Ningxia Sinopec Great Wall energy plant is maintained at 50-60%; the 100000 ton / year plant of Shaanxi Shaanxi Chemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance on March 27, with an estimated 7-10 days; the 60000 ton plant of Shaanxi black cat will be restarted in the first ten days of March, with the load maintained at about 50%; the shutdown for maintenance on March 5, Inner Mongolia Dongyuan, with the restart time to be determined.
| EDTA |
Industrial chain: raw materials: methanol: the overall methanol market is weak this month, with a large drop in price. At the beginning of the month, freight rates in all regions fell. The factory took advantage of the trend to hold the price. Some traders filled the gap, and the main factory shipped goods smoothly and stopped selling more. In the middle of June, the international crude oil plummeted, the downstream and traders panicked again, and the overall pricing in the northwest regions was difficult. The main outsourcing area of Ningxia olefin factory turned to Xinjiang and Ningxia, and the negotiation atmosphere was stalemate; the new orders in Guanzhong region were rarely traded, and the factory mostly implemented the pre contract volume. In the late ten days, with the price gradually approaching the downstream psychological price, coupled with the shutdown of methanol plants such as Xianyang chemical, the price gradually stopped falling and stabilized.
Calcium carbide: the price of domestic calcium carbide Market in this month shows a downward trend. The main factory price in Wuhai district is reduced by 200 yuan / ton. Up to now, the factory price in Wuhai district is 2450-2550 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of calcium carbide in Northwest China is still at a high level, the enterprise’s shipment is positive, and it still shows a weak downward trend in the near future. And the support of raw material surface is also insufficient. The third round of price reduction of Lancan carbon falls after the year, and the whole Lancan carbon plant is in a state of loss. The biggest impact on the calcium carbide industry is its main downstream PVC. PVC prices have been weak in recent years, and its operating rate also shows a downward trend. It is expected that the overall operation and maintenance of PVC industry will increase in April, and the operating rate will decrease, resulting in weak demand for calcium carbide.
In the downstream, PTMEG: more than 60-70% of BDO supporting PTMEG units were started. In BDO plant of outsourcing: Hangzhou Sanlong was restarted in the first ten days of March, with low negative operation; the load of Xiaoxing chemical industry was 50-60%, with maintenance plan in April. PBT: BDO supporting downstream PBT: Tunhe River load about 50%; Meizhou Bay load about 70%; Kaixiang parking, restart time is not determined. BDO factory: Yizheng Chemical fiber load is maintained at 60-70%; Nantong Xingchen normal operation; Kanghui one line operation; Changshu Changchun load is 50%; Wuxi Xingsheng low load; other devices are in shutdown state. The PBT industry as a whole started less than 50%, and its consumption capacity is limited. The overall load of GBL plant is 50%. TPU load is about 60%; PU slurry load is about 5-60%..
| povidone Iodine |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.
3、 Future forecast
Although the main factories maintain low negative operation, but the initial inventory is still overstocked, and terminal demand is weak, the downstream industries follow up to reduce negative production, maintain the just need to enter the market, with a strong atmosphere of price pressure. At present, there is no sign of improvement in the international epidemic situation. It is difficult and expected to resume construction in the downstream of the terminal in a short time. At the same time, the low price supply continues to impact, and the supply and demand game continues. BDO analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will continue to decline in a weak way, focusing on the changes in the mentality and fundamentals of the supplier and the demander.
| Melamine |