Commodity index: on April 29, the BPI of commodity price index was 710 points, down 1 point from yesterday, 30.32% from the highest point 1019 (2012-04-10), and 7.58% higher than the lowest point 660 on February 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million), the market mainstream price on April 2, 2020 is about 15090 yuan / ton, and the market mainstream price on April 30 is about 14820 yuan / ton, 1.19% lower than the price on the second day.

Industrial chain:

Upstream: from January to March 2020, the mainstream price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market continued to decrease. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times; in the middle of the year, the quotation continued to decline slightly, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton for three times; by the end of the decade, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a fluctuation of about 20%; on February 21, the mainstream price was about 9500 yuan / ton, decreased by 200 yuan / ton on 24, decreased by 300 yuan / ton on 27, and decreased by 150 yuan / ton to 8850 yuan / ton on 28 , 1750-1800 yuan / ton lower than before, about 17% lower than before; in March, acrylonitrile continued to decrease, with a range of 1000 yuan / ton. In April, the price of acrylonitrile first fell and then stabilized. On the first day, the quotation was 7450 yuan / ton, with a decrease of over 17.9% in the first ten days and 1400 yuan / ton. On the 14th day in the middle of the year, the price rose by about 250 yuan / ton and was 6650 yuan / ton. Then, the price fell by about 250 yuan / ton in succession, to 6350 yuan / ton, and finally stabilized. In the last ten days, the quotation was relatively stable. Downstream: at present, it is difficult for downstream water treatment engineering construction enterprises to survive, some demand enterprises have been shut down, and the demand for raw materials is not good, which makes the business of polyacrylamide manufacturers more difficult than in previous years.

Manufacturer: return to work and production is in good condition, inventory is being consumed in succession, current downstream demand is limited, and raw material cost has been reduced. At present, the main specifications of Polyacrylamide in Henan Province are as follows: cation: molecular weight 12 million; quotation 14000-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million; quotation 8000-9000 yuan / ton; quotation 8800-9500 yuan / ton; quotation 9400-10000 yuan / ton; quotation 9800-10500 yuan / ton; quotation 18 million yuan / ton; quotation 8800-9500 yuan / ton; quotation 14 million yuan / ton; quotation 16 million yuan / ton Price: 10400-11000 yuan / ton; molecular weight: 18-20 million yuan / ton; price: 12000-12500 yuan / ton; price: 12000-13000 yuan / ton.

Industry: during the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work, and the logistics returned to normal in March, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the partial reduction of raw material cost and the weak demand led to the high inventory of the manufacturer; the latest notice said that the national high-speed will resume charging on May 6, and the ex factory price of polyacrylamide may be increased.

Future market forecast: according to the analysis of business community, the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile will stabilize after the price is nearly 2000 yuan / ton this month, the current demand for polyacrylamide is still weak, and the manufacturer’s delivery price will be slightly reduced. In the future, with the recovery of high-speed charging and the stop of raw materials falling, the downward trend of polyacrylic acid is unlikely, and the larger probability is stable, medium and small upward trend. Limited by demand, the possibility of large upward trend is unlikely.