Commodity index: on November 27, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.23, unchanged with yesterday, 17.64% lower than 107.13 (2019-05-08), and 6.44% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note:

cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data, from November 20 to 27, 2020, the polyacrylamide in Henan Province was slightly increased. This week, the domestic mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (PAM, cation, molecular weight: 12 million) was raised from 14300 yuan / ton to about 14400 yuan / ton, with an increase rate of only about 1%; however, in fact, the manufacturers restricted by acrylonitrile procurement cost this month delivered polyacrylamide The price increase range is about 500 yuan / ton. For manufacturers with sufficient supply, the price change is not so urgent; in the heating season, the price of acrylonitrile, which is added to environmental protection inspection and raw material, rises sharply, which leads to the price rise of polyacrylamide. The supply situation determines whether the price rises or not. However, the downstream demand plays a general role. However, due to the sharp increase of cost pressure, the price of polyacrylamide is still rising sharply Inevitably, the pressure is beginning to show up this week.

Industrial chain: upstream: acrylonitrile rose sharply this month. According to the business agency, at the end of October, the mainstream quotation of domestic acrylonitrile was 9300 yuan / ton. This month, the price of acrylonitrile was raised repeatedly, with a single increase of 400-500 yuan / ton, and the monthly increase of 2000-3000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream is about 12250 yuan / ton, and this week the increase is as high as 1950 yuan / ton. Downstream: in the current winter, the number of downstream water treatment project construction enterprises is reduced, and the demand for raw materials is weak.

Industry: since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. In September, it remained stable after a small shock, and the amplitude of the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. Although the prosperity of the industry increased in October, the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuels. Although the price of polyacrylamide raw materials also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not rise as much as that of polyaluminum chloride. In November, faced with the big influence factors of heating season this year, polyacrylamide manufacturers stopped production more, and this year faced a sharp rise in acrylonitrile, the downstream demand was weak, the upstream cost was high, the pressure of polyacrylamide manufacturers was large, and the price rise was inevitable.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the price of acrylonitrile, the raw material in the upstream, has risen sharply, and the pressure on the cost side has increased sharply, and the basic demand support is insufficient. At present, the domestic economic momentum is good, and the demand is greatly affected by the seasonality. Based on the above factors, we expect that the price of polyacrylamide will change with the change of acrylonitrile price in the near future, and the supply of polyacrylamide will also be affected when the manufacturer stops production until the end of December. The price of polyacrylamide is likely to rise, but the transaction will be affected due to the seasonal limitation of demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China at the weekend was 956.67 yuan / ton, which was 0.70% higher than 950.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 57.69% higher than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the sulfur market in East China rose slightly. The inventory of refineries in various regions of China was low. Downstream factories and traders purchased on demand, and the shipment was smooth. The port ownership was centralized. The shippers had a positive attitude and had no intention to ship at low price. The market was organized and operated. Within the week, Sinopec’s quotation of solid sulfur in East China was increased by 20 yuan / ton, mainstream price was 940-1250 yuan / ton, liquid sulfur was increased by 20-40 yuan / ton, mainstream price was 890-1100 yuan / ton; the quotation of solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong area of Sinopec was stable, with quotations of 960-970 yuan / ton; that of Sinopec in North China was 860-880 yuan / ton, and that of liquid sulfur was 830-890 yuan / ton.

The market of phosphate fertilizer in the lower reaches is slightly flat. For the first ammonium fertilizer, the overall market price remains stable, while for the diammonium fertilizer, the market keeps stable operation. The quotation of some manufacturers rises slightly, while the price of winter storage fertilizer is pulled down and the price is on the high side. In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic market performance is still differentiated. The price trend in Shandong remains stable. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers is stable, the inventory of manufacturers is small, and the downstream demand is strong. The sulfuric acid market is expected to rise slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Aftermarket forecast: according to the sulfur analysts of business club, the domestic sulfur market is stable and upward, the domestic refinery inventory remains low, the downstream demand is stable, and the market performance is good. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be sorted and operated.