1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on June 10 was 11360 yuan / ton, down 0.26% from the beginning of the month and up 79.37% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Since the beginning of June, the price of raw yellow phosphorus has stopped rising and turned to falling, and the supporting force of cost has declined. Moreover, after the price increase in the early stage, the phosphoric acid enterprises generally ship goods, so the price has been slightly reduced by about 150-200 yuan / ton. Some enterprises are on the sidelines, and the overall focus of the market has moved down. In terms of wet process phosphoric acid, the market supply is tight due to some device problems, and the market trading is OK, but with the price of hot process phosphoric acid weakening. The price of wet process acid decreased slightly. By the end of the week, the price of raw materials was about 38000 yuan / ton, and the market price of thermal phosphoric acid was about 11360 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 10500-11500 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10800-11500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10500-12000 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 11500-12000 yuan / ton.

Phosphate rock: after the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic market for medium and high-end phosphate rock continued to rise. The spot supply of phosphate rock in the site was tight, and shortage was widespread. Large mining enterprises were reluctant to sell, mainly for their own use, and there was almost no supply source for external supply. Most of the mining enterprises that could supply phosphate rock to foreign countries were mainly taking orders in advance, and the orders were mostly arranged until the middle and late of next month. On June 9, the reference price of phosphate rock was 976.67, an increase of 7.33% compared with June 1 (910.00).

In June, the domestic yellow phosphorus market generally moved downward slightly. At present, yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly execute early-stage orders. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on June 9, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 38666.67 yuan / ton, down 1.28% from June 1 (39166.67 yuan / ton).

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the business agency, the raw materials have been lowered recently, the space for price adjustment in the phosphoric acid market has increased, and the price has declined steadily. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable in the short term, and there are still downside risks.

Price trend of metallic magnesium

Market analysis this week

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of the 10th, the average price in the domestic market was 27000 yuan / ton, down 7.95% on a weekly basis. In the early stage of this week, the price of magnesium ingots continued to fall, the demand side continued to be depressed, and the news was not good. The price of magnesium ingots fell to about 26000 yuan / ton. According to insiders, the current market price has been close to the production cost line, and the willingness of magnesium factories to make price concessions has weakened. As the market price at the end of this week rebounded slightly compared with the early stage.

Supply and demand

In terms of supply, the overall supply is relatively abundant. It is understood that the domestic magnesium ingot output in May was about 85800 tons, with a month on month increase of 1.95% and a year-on-year increase of 29.12%. From January to may, the domestic magnesium ingot output was 422400 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 26.36%. In terms of demand, downstream customers are still cautious about the future market of magnesium ingots. With the correction of market prices, downstream customers’ acceptance has improved, and they have started to enter the market to purchase one after another. Recently, the purchase has increased.

Upstream and downstream

On the cost side, the ferrosilicon market rose first and then fell following the disk this week, and the spot price was raised. The mainstream price in Ningxia was around 9000-9300 yuan / ton, and the average market price was 9125 yuan / ton. There was still room for ferrosilicon profits, and the manufacturers’ production enthusiasm was good, which was basically in a greedy state. The coke market increased slightly, the first round of increase was implemented, and the current round of increase was 100 yuan / ton. At the downstream end, the consumption followed up with the sharp decline of magnesium price. This week, the willingness to purchase magnesium powder and magnesium alloy increased, and the market began to purchase one after another, and the transaction performance improved.

Aftermarket forecast

With the rising prices of coke and ferrosilicon, the current magnesium price has approached the factory cost line, and some factories have inverted the cost. The cost side has given a certain support to the magnesium price, but the demand side is depressed, the inventory is slowly overstocked, and the recovery of magnesium price still needs efforts. At present, the analysts of the business community believe that the factory has a strong willingness to stabilize the price. With the improvement of the epidemic situation and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that the bottom will be built and stabilized in the short term.

In the first ten days of June, the market price of polybutadiene rubber rose. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 10, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 14940 yuan / ton, up 3.03% from 14500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Affected by raw materials and demand, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was already at a high level. In addition, the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant of Maoming Petrochemical encountered an unexpected shutdown on the 9th. It is expected that the supply side will tighten again, and the market will be bullish.

In the first ten days of June, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises was raised. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 10, the ex warehouse price of Yangzi Shunding of Sinopec East China sales company was 15000 yuan / ton; In addition, the international crude oil is running at a high level, the price of raw butadiene is rising significantly, and Shunding units such as ChuanHua, Zhenhua and Maoming are shut down; Polybutadiene rubber market rose.

In the first ten days of June, butadiene prices continued to rise sharply, and the cost side continued to support. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 10, the price of butadiene was 12096 yuan / ton, up 6.66% from 11341 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of June 10, the price of natural rubber was 13090 yuan / ton, up 0.77% from 12990 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

More than 60% of the downstream tires were started, which supported the rubber demand to a certain extent. The international crude oil price was running at a high level, and the market offer was firm.

Future forecast: according to the analysts of business club, the rebound of raw material cost and downstream demand support, and it is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will continue to run at a high level in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the PP market fluctuated this week, and the spot price of wire drawing brand rose on the whole. As of June 10, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8858.33 yuan / ton, up or down +0.38% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to decline this week, falling below 8000 yuan. Due to the increase of propylene supply due to the commissioning of new units and the resumption of production of maintenance units, the market competition intensifies. Under the pressure of sales, the enterprises give up profits and sell goods, and some process routes are even in a state of loss. Downstream market demand is mainly just demand, fast in and fast out, and the overall market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand. The cost of raw materials is high. At present, the supply of propylene market is loose and the demand side follows up slowly. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and downward in the near future.

Propylene price gradually weakened, crude oil continued to run stronger, and the support on PP cost side was slightly weakened this week. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises fell due to the maintenance of some devices, and the supply decreased. On the demand side, the downstream factories follow up the purchase slowly, have strong resistance to the high price supply, and the market trading is light. Traders’ shipments followed the market, rising first and then falling. The operating rate of terminal enterprises was adjusted in a narrow range. The main support in the market came from the long-term support of the upstream of the near and far ends. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will maintain strong cost support and tend to be stronger.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of June 10, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has generally risen. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic producers and traders was about 8900 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of +0.19% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of +3.89% over the same period last year. This week, the start-up of the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material was reduced by a narrow margin, and the products of the end enterprises entered the off-season mode, taking goods to maintain production. In terms of medical fiber products, cooling is required, and the rigid support is weakened. The supply side is abundant, and the midstream inventory is under pressure. It is expected that the fiber material may fall in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market fell this week. As of June 10, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business club was about 9750 yuan / ton, up or down -0.17% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China has gradually decreased, and the epidemic prevention pressure has eased. At the same time, medical meltblown cloth materials have entered the off-season of consumption, and the demand has decreased. The supply of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Together with the shipping resistance, it puts pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may remain weak.

Aftermarket forecast

According to PP analysts of business agency, the domestic polypropylene market fluctuated this week, the raw material propylene market fell, the international crude oil was at a high level, and the cost support was acceptable. The demand of terminal enterprises develops slowly, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the recent PP market may be firmly supported by the cost side.

According to the bulk commodity list data of the business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1270.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1283.33 yuan / ton, up 1.05%. The current price fell 6.78% month on month, and the current price fell 0.32% year on year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde has mainly fallen in the past more than a month, and the market began to explore this week. As of June 9, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1230-1320 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has risen, formaldehyde has tentatively followed the rise, the downstream demand is low, just need to purchase is maintained, the market transaction is light, and the market has been explored slightly.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of June 9:

Region, Price

East China, 1350 yuan / ton

Central China, 1370 yuan / ton

South China, 1400 yuan / ton

Northwest China, 1320 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market rose this week. In terms of spot goods, the international oil price continued to rise, the coal price was firm, and the cost support was good. In the short term, the domestic methanol market is mainly rising.

This week, the methanol market rose and the cost support was good, but the operation of the downstream plate plant did not improve. The demand for formaldehyde in the field was limited. The formaldehyde manufacturers tentatively followed the rise. The market transaction was general, and the formaldehyde market rose slightly.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has gone up, and the demand of downstream wood panel factories is difficult to improve. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency predicts that the recent formaldehyde price rise in Shandong is mainly shock.

At the beginning of June, the domestic dimethyl ether Market weakened as a whole, the price showed a trend of falling first and then stabilizing, and the market focus in Henan moved down. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4100.00 yuan / ton on June 1 and 4050.00 yuan / ton on June 7, with a decrease of 1.22% and 3.91% compared with May 1.

As of June 7, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region, 4170 yuan / ton

Hebei region, 4070 yuan / ton

Henan region, 4010-4050 yuan / ton

At the beginning of June, the overall trend of domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak, and the price of dimethyl ether in Henan market showed a trend of falling first and then stabilizing. At the beginning of the month, it was the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Before the festival, due to weak terminal demand, the manufacturers’ shipment was general. They mostly lowered the ex factory price to make profit. After the festival, the market price stopped falling and stabilized, the price was firm, the market price of raw methanol rose, and the civil gas market of related products also rose after the festival, which brought some support to the market, and the price of dimethyl ether stabilized.

On June 7, the ex factory quotation of enterprises in the Middle East of Shandong Province in the methanol market was around 2800 yuan / ton; There is no reference price for surrounding trade negotiations such as Dongying and Zibo. The prices of some enterprises in the southeast of the mountain are around 2710-2750 yuan / ton, and the local delivery prices in Linyi are around 2790-2800 yuan / ton, including tax. Some enterprises of olefin procurement are short of cash, and the high-end performance is average. The methanol market in Henan Province was sorted out in a narrow range, and the shipment price of some enterprises was 2630 yuan / ton; The transaction price of bidding sales of some enterprises is 2605-2610 yuan / ton of spot exchange, and all transactions are completed; Some traders in Luoyang offer about 2600-2630 yuan / ton.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is rising steadily, and the civil price of related products liquefied gas is relatively strong, which brings certain benefits to the market. However, due to insufficient terminal demand, the downstream just needs to be supplemented, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether Market is easy to fall but difficult to rise in the short term.

On May 29, the crude benzene commodity index was 110.64, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.08% from the highest point of 131.84 in the cycle (January 28, 2013), and up 262.28% from the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In May, 2022, the crude benzene market fluctuated upward. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 6673 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7065 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 5.87%.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

May 5, 8850.,+100

May 7, 8950.,+100

May 13, 9100.,+150

May 17, 9200.,+100

May 19, 9300.,+100

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On May 19, 2022, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was raised by 100 yuan / ton, and 9300 yuan / ton was implemented. In May, 2022, Sinopec’s pure benzene was increased 5 times, with a cumulative increase of 450 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: HSBC Petrochemical offers 9350 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 9003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 9000 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 9050 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude oil, the overall oil price rose by a wide margin this month, with a monthly increase of more than 9.7%. On May 27, the price of international crude oil futures rose again. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $115.07/barrel, up US $0.86 or 0.9%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $115.56/barrel, up US $1.39 or 1.22%. With the arrival of the peak driving season in the US in summer, the demand expectation has boosted the oil price. In addition, the EU has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil.

The crude benzene market rose as a whole this month, with a slight correction at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 5.87%. At the beginning of the month, affected by the small and long holiday, the regional price difference in the domestic market was obvious, and the prices in the main production areas of Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other places increased significantly. The bidding price in the first week after the festival in Shandong was 7260-7265 yuan / ton, an increase of 330 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. Because some enterprises auctioned the supply of goods after the festival before the festival, the pre Festival price was still implemented in the first week after the festival. In the second week, some enterprises that did not adjust their prices after the festival rose one after another. On the demand side, the downstream benzene hydrogenation enterprises started well this month with the support of high prices, and the demand for crude benzene was well supported. At the end of the month, although the prices of crude oil, pure benzene, styrene and other industrial chain commodities were still strong, the downstream of pure benzene was pressured by the cost pressure, so it had strong resistance to high priced pure benzene, and the market ushered in a small correction. Affected by this, the last bidding market at the end of the month was slightly corrected as a whole, in which Shandong implemented 7260-72665 yuan / ton and slightly reduced by 30 yuan / ton.

In terms of start-up: the overall start-up of coking enterprises in the early stage of this month was relatively high. With the implementation of four rounds of coke lifting and lowering, some enterprises with damaged profits have taken the initiative to limit production, with the proportion of limit production being 10%-30%, and the supply of crude benzene may be affected to some extent.

In the future, the business news agency believes that pure benzene and crude oil are still at a high level, crude oil prices continue to rise, and the price of pure benzene in Asia has a certain correction, but the overall price is still at a high level. The regional price difference of domestic pure benzene is obvious. East China has been actively de stocking. Supported by the high external price, the current market price of pure benzene in East China remains high. The fundamental support is obvious, but after the crude benzene price has gone all the way, the downstream resistance is strong, the downstream profits are tightened, and the purchasing enthusiasm is slowed down. It is expected that in the future, the crude benzene market will remain high and volatile in the short term, with some room for decline. In the future, we will focus on the impact of fundamental news such as pure benzene and crude oil on the market mentality and downstream demand.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business clubs, the domestic vitamin market fell in May due to the weak demand of downstream animal husbandry. The domestic vitamin C price fell slightly in May, with an average price of 40.33 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month and 40 yuan / kg at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 0.82%.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the vitamin C market as a whole was stable and small in May, with little change in rise and fall. Some factories continued to stop reporting, increasing market attention, but the downstream support was weak, and the focus of market negotiation was downward. By the end of the month, the mainstream price of feed grade vitamin C was 35-37 yuan / kg, and the mainstream price of food grade vitamin C was 36-40 yuan / kg.

In May, the price of vitamin a continued to fall, with an average price of 224 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month and 192 yuan / kg at the end of the month, a decrease of 14.06%. The mainstream market quotation is 180-190 yuan / kg, while the European market quotation drops to 54-60 euros / kg. According to the market news, on May 18, the market said that the XinHeCheng VA plant planned to stop production and overhaul for 10 weeks in mid June. The market attention increased, but the demand increment was limited.

In May, the price of vitamin E went down step by step, with an average price of 91 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month and 89 yuan / kg at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.02%. The current ve market price is 85-88 yuan / kg, and the European market price is 9.9-10.2 euros / kg. In April, the export volume of vitamins decreased, and the overall export volume was relatively stable. On May 24, the market said that XinHeCheng Shandong ve plant planned to stop production for maintenance for 8-9 weeks in mid June, and the news supported the strong price of vitamin E.

Aftermarket forecast

According to vitamin analysts of the chemical branch of the business community, the overall vitamin market is weak. With the arrival of the maintenance peak season in June, the supply may be tightened. The supply side will boost the vitamin market, and pay close attention to the manufacturers’ start-up and shutdown and market news.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of May 31, the average price of domestic general transparent premium PMMA was 16925.00 yuan / ton. In May, PMMA maintained a stable operation, with a price increase of 1.8% compared with the beginning of the month. In May, the PMMA market rose in a narrow range, and the market operated stronger.

In the first ten days of May, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16625.00 yuan / ton, the price remained stable, the overall market changed little, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 16500 yuan / ton, the PMMA market price remained stable, the negotiation focus was stable, the overall market supply and demand were balanced, and the negotiation atmosphere was general.

In the middle of May, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16600.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 16500 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last week, there was no significant change in the price. The downstream was not willing to purchase, the overall supply and demand were balanced, the downstream just needed to purchase, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply side was normal.

In late May, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16750.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 16500 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last week, there was no significant change in the price. The price of PMMA was mainly stable, the overall supply and demand was balanced, the purchase was just needed, the focus of negotiation was stable, the supply side was normal, upstream phenol, the price of domestic factories was increased by 100 to 10500-10700 yuan / ton, and East China Sinopec implemented 10500 yuan / ton, The North China and Shandong plants are more than 10700 yuan / ton, and the current production profit of phenol ketone enterprises is expected to turn negative into positive. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of Jiangyin port was 40000 tons, and the market demand was poor.

Rubber and plastic index: on May 30, the rubber and plastic index was 790 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 25.47% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 49.62% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that: it is expected that PMMA will operate smoothly in the short term and the overall market supply and demand will be balanced. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

In May, the domestic asphalt market was affected by the international crude oil price, tight supply and sharp demand, and the price continued to rise. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the spot price of domestic asphalt at the beginning of the month was 4077 yuan / ton, and the market price of domestic asphalt at the end of the month was 4706 yuan / ton. The price increased by 15.42% in the month and 43.77% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic asphalt spot market rose significantly after the festival, and the price rose rapidly in a short time. The main reason is that the international crude oil price fluctuates at a high level, which is good for the whole oil industry chain. On the other hand, at present, the supply of some refineries is low, and the market supply is relatively scarce. The asphalt futures market continued to rise, which also boosted the bullish sentiment of the whole asphalt market.

In the middle of May, the domestic asphalt market price stabilized after rising. In terms of regions, the price increase in South China is the most obvious, mainly driven by the shortage of resources in the region and the rise of main prices; The second is East China, mainly due to Sinopec’s price increase of 100-140 yuan / ton during the week; Then in the northwest, northeast and southwest, the prices of some brands rose, and the transaction range rose slightly; The price increase in Shandong and North China was relatively small, which was mainly affected by the wide range of crude oil shocks. Some low-cost sources of goods still existed, and the overall increase was limited.

In late June, the domestic asphalt market price rose slightly. In terms of regions, the planned overhaul price of major refineries in Northwest China has increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the market price has risen significantly; The resource supply in Northeast China is tight, and the price rises with the start of demand; In South China, Sinopec raised the price by 100 yuan / ton, but some PetroChina refineries have preferential policies; Spot resources in Shandong and North China are relatively tight, and market prices have increased slightly.

Annual comparison chart of asphalt price of business club from 2018 to 2022:

Monthly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price of Business Club:

Weekly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price of Business Club:

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of Business Club:

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, according to the price monitoring of the trading society, in April 2022, there were 10 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose month on month, including 4 kinds of commodities that rose by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The commodities with the top three increases were coke (11.98%), coking coal (10.15%) and WTI crude oil (5.07%). There are 5 commodities with a month on month decrease, and 1 commodity with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were methanol (-10.59%), naphtha (-3.67%) and MTBE (-2.37%). This month, the average increase or decrease was 1.38%.

Price rise and fall list of asphalt industrial chain products of Business Club:

List of price rise and fall of asphalt products of Business Club:

The weather in the north is OK, and the demand is stable, which has a certain support for the shipment, but the rainfall in the South has increased, or has a certain restriction on the demand. The asphalt analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic asphalt market may be dominated by high-level consolidation.