According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable in May. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 4600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 41.10%.

In May, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably, the recent on-site supply of goods was normal, the on-site delivery was general, the manufacturers’ inventory was low, the upstream coal price of the terminal was stable, the price of liquid ammonia was rising, the downstream demand was general, and the price of ammonium nitrate remained high due to the rise of raw materials. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is purchased on demand. Recently, the trend of the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production. In addition, the sales of the civil explosive industry has come to an end, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5000 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 5200-5300 yuan / ton.

In May, the price of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2693.33 yuan / ton, up 9.52% from the price of 2450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2400 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2900 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the concentrated nitric acid market supply is normal, and the on-site delivery situation is rising. In May, the nitric acid market price trend is rising, and the raw material nitric acid price trend is rising, which has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high.

In the upstream, the domestic liquid ammonia market price rose in May. As of the end of the month, the liquid ammonia price was 5306.67 yuan / ton, up 4.74% from 5066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 5100-5300 yuan / ton. It is mainly affected by the reduction of supply in the area and the shutdown of some units; As well as the high urea level in the downstream, the raw materials of compound fertilizer rose, and the demand maintained a moderate growth; In addition, there are still some enterprises switching to urea, which makes the supply of ammonia more tight. Superimposed on the downstream agricultural demand, the downstream stock also pushed up the ammonia price. The price rise of upstream liquid ammonia has formed a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high.

In recent years, the downstream procurement is general. The market demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, but the raw material market price has remained high, which has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate Market. However, the sales of the civil explosive industry has become weak. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda first rose and then fell in May, with an overall decline. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 1274 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was about 1246 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 2.24%, and a price increase of 149.2% over the same period last year. On May 30, the commodity index of caustic soda was 179.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.25% from the highest point of 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 176.24% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of May, the price of caustic soda rose slightly, which was mainly because some caustic soda enterprises had little pressure to reduce the load and inventory recently, and the downstream had a good enthusiasm for recent trading and investment. The price decline in the middle and late May is mainly due to the small change in the overall supply of caustic soda. The downstream alumina is mainly stable, and the price of caustic soda has been lowered for many times. It is mainly purchased on demand, and the overall demand is limited.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 21st week of 2022 (5.23-5.27), there was one rising commodity, two falling commodities, and two rising and falling commodities in the list of chlor alkali industry prices. The main commodities rising are: light soda ash (2.15%); The main commodities falling were PVC (-2.28%) and caustic soda (-1.73%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.37%.

Analysts from the business community believe that recently, the price of caustic soda has declined, the inventory of downstream alumina raw materials is high, and most of them are purchased on demand. The overall demand is limited. It is comprehensively estimated that the subsequent weak consolidation market operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the downstream market demand.