1、 Analysis of upstream acetic acid market trend

This week (9.5-9), domestic acetic acid rose slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, acetic acid rose by 0.47% this week. As the weekend approached, the price of acetic acid in East China was about 3100-3200 yuan/ton.

Acetic acid market is still weak this week. The price has not changed much. Most of the main acetic acid suppliers have stable prices. Due to the continuous destocking before, and the approaching Mid Autumn Festival, some downstream factories prepared goods in advance, the manufacturers’ mentality was slightly improved. The market rose slightly, but with little effort. In addition, with the restart of Celanese unit, the supply rebounded, and the high-speed traffic restrictions were imposed in some regions. However, the market transaction was light, and the rise of acetic acid was restrained.

2、 Analysis on the market trend of ethyl acetate

This week (9.5-9), domestic ethyl acetate was still weak, but the market showed signs of bottoming out. This week, it stopped falling and stabilized. According to the statistics of the business community, the increase or decrease this week was 0, and the price was basically flat last week. The market price of ethyl acetate was 6700-7000 yuan/ton near the weekend.

This week, the cost of ethyl ester remained weak, and the prices of acetic acid and ethanol were mainly stable, with little support. There was little change in the supply side, and the price of large factories rose and fell with each other. There were factories in East China that raised a little tentatively, but due to the limited shipment, they did not follow up later. The auction price of Shandong Dachang was stable and the transaction was fair, which boosted market confidence; However, the downstream weak market is difficult to improve, the overall market atmosphere is light, and downstream procurement remains just in need and stable.

3、 Analysis of butyl acetate market trend

This week (9.5-9), domestic butyl acetate rebounded slightly, but the market was still weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly increase of butyl acetate was 0.69%. At the weekend, the domestic butyl ester price range is 7200-7500 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, the cost was negative. Although acetic acid rebounded, the price of n-butanol fell significantly this week, by 4.76%. However, the main reason for butyl acetate to stop falling and stabilize is that the market supply pressure is not large: the operating rate of butyl acetate enterprises is still low in terms of plant commencement, but the market transaction is not good under the influence of weak demand. The market supply remained within a reasonable range. As butyl ester remained inactive for a long time, the unit operating rate was low. The supply is not too much pressure. However, the downstream demand will remain weak for a long time, and butyl ester may not be fundamentally improved in the near future.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

It can be seen from the comparison chart of the rise and fall of the acetic acid industry chain that the acetic acid industry chain entered September with obvious signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. Although the price increase of the main product fields was not large, most of them turned red, mainly because the enterprises generally reduced production, reduced liability and guaranteed profits or reduced losses. The market decline was mostly helped by the relief of supply pressure. However, downstream demand is generally low. This is also the fundamental reason that restricts the rise of the industrial chain for a long time.

5、 Prospect of acetic acid industry chain

Future forecast: The analysts of the business association believe that in the short term, the acetic acid industry chain will maintain range consolidation, but it will continue to adjust at the bottom, and it is unlikely that it will rebound sharply in the later period. On the one hand, the cost of acetic acid as the upstream raw material is constrained. With the stable output of Celanese in the later stage, the supply may increase in the later stage. In addition, there are rumors of the resumption of ethyl acetate. New Tiande plans to restart after the Mid Autumn Festival. At that time, the supply pressure will be highlighted. The supply pressure of butyl ester is not big, but the long-term downturn in demand is also a factor restricting the market rebound. Overall, the acetic acid industry chain will continue to hover at the bottom. The price may rebound, but not too much.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of PVC carbide SG5 rose this week. Last Friday, the average price of domestic PVC was 6454.29 yuan/ton. This Friday, the average price was 6504.29 yuan/ton. The price rose by 0.77% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market price of PVC has risen steadily this week. At present, the spot market is fair, the number of downstream inquiries is increasing, the follow-up of actual orders is slightly insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere is good. Futures prices rose slightly as a whole this week, and market confidence rebounded significantly. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 6200-6750 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on September 8, international crude oil futures rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 83.54 dollars/barrel, up 1.60 dollars or 2.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 89.15 dollars/barrel, up 1.15 dollars or 1.3%. On the previous trading day, oil prices fell sharply due to worries about economic recession, and the market bought at a technical bottom on Thursday; In addition, the United States imposed a price ceiling on Russian oil, and Russia threatened to stop supplying oil and natural gas to some international buyers. The oil price rebounded after exceeding the price limit.

In terms of calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose from 3650 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3733.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.28%, and a year-on-year drop of 31.50%.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the spot price of PVC will rise this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is fair, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the futures drive the spot price to rise slightly. The upstream calcium carbide price rose slightly, which supported PVC moderately. It is expected that the PVC market price will slightly tilt upward in the short term. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.

According to the data of the business society, the market of chloroform rose this week (9.2-9.10). As of September 10, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 3037 yuan/ton, a small increase of 4.29% compared with 2917 yuan/ton last Friday. Since the trichloromethane fell to the low level since this year in July, the trichloromethane market has a strong rebound mentality. In addition, the recent sharp rise in the price of raw methanol has strong cost support, and some enterprises have reduced the burden when starting construction. Although the demand for refrigerant R22 to start construction is weak, the trichloromethane manufacturers have a strong desire to support the price.

This week (9.2-9.10), the commencement of domestic methane chloride fell slightly on the whole, supporting the chloroform market.

This week (9.2-9.10), the spot price of methanol rose significantly, and the cost support of chloroform strengthened. According to the business community, as of September 10, the spot price of methanol was 2714 yuan/ton, up 6.22% from 2553 on Friday. The domestic methanol market is surging. The main reasons are the short term shortage of supply and the short term rise in demand. The downstream receiving price has risen significantly. There is a demand for goods in stock. The traders’ mentality is stable and improving. The quotations of major manufacturers at ports and in the mainland have been continuously raised. Some manufacturers have been bidding well, mainly at a premium starting price. However, the rise in freight has restrained the growth of the internal real estate area.

With the gradual end of high temperature weather, the price of refrigerant R22 rises and starts to reduce, and the demand for chloroform is weak.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of the business community, the domestic methane chloride started to decline slightly, and the raw material price rose sharply, which supported chloroform; However, after the high temperature, the demand for refrigerant is weak, and it is expected that the trichloromethane excavation will increase slightly due to the cost support in the later period.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business club, the PC market fluctuated and rose in August, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of August 31, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 17183.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 3.62% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the market of bisphenol a gradually rose this month, the supply of goods decreased at the beginning of the month, and the trading atmosphere improved. There are many maintenance devices in the middle of the month, the domestic supply is expected to decline, the import supply is generally replenished, the external price is rising, and the merchants try to overestimate. Domestic factories have increased slightly for many times to stimulate the market, and cargo holders have followed the upward trend. In the month, the terminal acceptance improved, and the participation of epoxy downstream factories and intermediate traders gradually increased. With the help of the factory’s price adjustment, the downstream demand has increased, and it is expected that bisphenol A will continue to explore the market.

The upstream market of bisphenol a gradually rose in August, and the pressure on the cost side of PC strengthened all the way. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises increased narrowly this month, and was generally stable at between 60% and 70%. The inventory position of the industry remains high, and the pressure on the supply side continues. The international crude oil at the upstream of the far end rose at the end of the month after falling, and the far end support of PC was weak first and then strong. Downstream demand is still lagging behind, terminal enterprises are limited by power and high temperature, resulting in limited operating rate, poor confidence in stock preparation, and on-site operations are biased towards bargain hunting. Although the profits of production enterprises are poor, due to the gradually obvious cost pressure and the operation of production prices, businesses follow the market, and the actual transactions are mostly scattered small orders.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that this month, the domestic PC market fluctuated and rose, the upstream BPA market gradually rose, and the cost side gradually put pressure on PC. On the supply side, there is abundant supply of goods, high inventory, weak demand, and buyers have a wait-and-see mentality. At present, the pressure of raw materials in the market and the contradiction between supply and demand are competing with each other. It is expected that in the short term, the rise of PC spot price may be blocked and the operation will be frozen.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of the sample enterprises of business associations was 8775.00 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the price of the sample enterprises was 8983.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.37%. The price increased by 1.08% over the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene rose this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the price of styrene has mainly increased in the past two weeks, and the price continues to rise this week. The main reasons for the increase are that the downstream operating rate has increased significantly, the demand has improved compared with the previous period, the port inventory has decreased, the styrene has been smoothly removed from the warehouse, and the spot market has risen. However, the sharp drop in crude oil prices and poor cost support restrained the increase in styrene.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell slightly this week. On August 26, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7650 yuan / ton (average price 7617 yuan / ton). On Friday (September 2), the price of pure benzene was 7500-7800 yuan / ton (average price 7608 yuan / ton). The average price fell by 0.11% compared with last week and 0.93% compared with the same period last year. Domestic pure benzene supply increased; This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port increased by 9400 tons to 59600 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene were mixed this week. At present, the PS (polystyrene) market offer is slightly down, styrene is strong, downstream purchasing interest is low, merchants’ shipments are under pressure, and they continue to yield profits. Reference of mainstream brand excluding tax quotation: Zhenjiang Qimei pg33 quoted 9680 yuan / ton, Taiwan Taihua 5250 quoted 11290 yuan / ton, Ningbo Taihua 535n quoted 9850 yuan / ton, Shanghai Secco 123p quoted 9670 yuan / ton, Thailand Petrochemical 150 quoted 10800 yuan / ton, 650 quoted 10070 yuan / ton; Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 reported 9200 yuan / ton.

The average price of EPS common materials this week is 11450 yuan / ton. Cost support is better, and the focus of market negotiation is higher. In the South China market, boosted by the upward trend of futures and mainstream East China, cargo holders rose, with low enthusiasm for buying, weak EPS market quotation, manufacturers maintaining stable price for shipment, and downstream mainly on demand.

ABS market fluctuated little this week. The support of ABS cost is not strong. In terms of load, the expected increase in the start-up of some ABS production lines in the week was realized, and the supply of the whole month was abundant, and the pressure on the market at the supply side was not reduced. The demand is masked. At present, the downstream of the industry is in the off-season market. The demand of the main terminal household appliances and other industries lags behind, and the impact of high temperature and power limitation is superimposed. The on-site consumption strength continues to be weak. Merchants cut prices and take orders, and the offer follows the market. Terminal enterprises bought on bargain hunting, and their resistance to high price sources was obvious.

The international crude oil market has plummeted, the downstream market is generally receptive to high price styrene, and styrene costs and pressures coexist. Generally speaking, if the raw material level falls next week, the styrene market will follow the decline.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on August 31, the domestic carbon black quotation was 10000 yuan / ton. The domestic carbon black market as a whole did not change much this month, and the price was temporarily stable.

On the cost side, the supply of coal tar market continues to be tight, and the rise of some deep-processing products is favorable to the coal tar market. In the short term, the market price of raw coal tar is high, but there is still room to rise in the later period. The price of raw coal tar is high, and the cost pressure of carbon black enterprises is large. The price of carbon black is supported to a certain extent. The cost of carbon black enterprises is high, and most deep processing and carbon black enterprises are facing losses. At present, the enthusiasm of carbon black enterprises to start work is not high, and the overall operating load has dropped significantly.

On the demand side, it is difficult to significantly improve the overall operation of the downstream tire market. The demand for carbon black is limited, and the actual price is generally depressed. Mainly for just needed procurement, the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is light. Tire continued to be weak in the domestic demand market, and operation continued to be low. However, with the continuous introduction of favorable national policies, the future expectation of terminal tire enterprises may improve.

Information of listed companies:

Recently, domestic listed carbon black enterprises have successively released half year financial reports, and the sharp decline in net profit has become the mainstream trend.

In general, the current domestic downstream demand for carbon black has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the cost of carbon black enterprises is high and the price is relatively stable.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 31, the average price of domestic power grade lithium iron phosphate was 151000.00 yuan / ton. In August, the market price of lithium iron phosphate was mainly stable, and the price was slightly higher than that of the same period last month, with an overall increase of 0.67%. The stable operation continued. The overall market negotiation focus of lithium iron phosphate was stable, and the price was mainly stable in the short term.

In the first ten days of July, as of August 8, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged and operated smoothly. The price fluctuation range was not large. Yougang mainly needed to purchase, and the purchasing atmosphere was general. The overall market was running smoothly. At present, the supply of goods from manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the scheduling and delivery of contract customers. The number of new orders is limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK, At present, the mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton, the price of lithium iron phosphate of power type superior products is 155000 yuan / ton, the price fluctuation of lithium iron phosphate is not obvious, the operation is stable, and the main price fluctuation range is not large. Yougang needs to purchase mainly, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the overall market is running smoothly. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the scheduling and delivery of contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited, The overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK, and the current mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton..

In the middle of July, as of August 16, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product, was 150000 yuan / ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged and operated smoothly. The price fluctuation range was not large. Yougang mainly needed to purchase, and the purchasing atmosphere was general. The overall market was running smoothly. At present, the supply of goods from manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the scheduling and delivery of contract customers. The number of new orders is limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK, At present, the mainstream price range is 150000-155000 yuan / ton, the price of lithium iron phosphate of power type superior products is 150000 yuan / ton, the price fluctuation of lithium iron phosphate is not obvious, the operation is stable, and the main price fluctuation range is not large. Yougang needs to purchase mainly, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the overall market is running smoothly. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the scheduling and delivery of contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited, The overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK, and the current mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton..

In late July, as of August 26, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product, was 151000 yuan / ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged and operated smoothly. The price fluctuation range was not large. Yougang mainly needed to purchase, and the purchasing atmosphere was general. The overall market was running smoothly. At present, the supply of goods from manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the scheduling and delivery of contract customers. The number of new orders is limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK, At present, the mainstream price range is 150000-155000 yuan / ton, the price of lithium iron phosphate of power type superior products is 151000 yuan / ton, the price fluctuation of lithium iron phosphate is not obvious, the operation is stable, and the main price fluctuation range is not large. Yougang needs to purchase mainly, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the overall market is running smoothly. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the scheduling and delivery of contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited, The overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK, and the current mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton..

Chemical industry index: on August 31, the chemical industry index was 952 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 32.00% from the highest point 1400 points (October 23, 2021) in the cycle, and up 59.20% from the lowest point 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate from business club believe that it is expected that the lithium iron phosphate market will operate stably in September and the price will not fluctuate much. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity.).

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 5925.00 yuan / ton as of August 31. In August, the overall market of white carbon black was in a weak position, with a slight decline, with an overall decline of 6.32%. The cost of white carbon black was supported to a certain extent. The downstream just needed to purchase and the willingness to prepare goods was not strong. At present, the market supply side is normal and the market transaction atmosphere is general. It is expected that the overall market will maintain a balance between supply and demand in September, The price fluctuates little.

In the first ten days of August, as of August 8, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton. The white carbon black was mainly in stable operation. Compared with the same period of last week, there was no obvious change in the price. This week, the white carbon black market was mainly in stable operation, with supply and demand balanced. The negotiation atmosphere was general, the overall market was stable and stable, and the supply and demand were balanced. At present, the market supply side was normal, and the white carbon black market price was mainly in a stable trend, Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat.

In the middle of August, as of August 17, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 5925.00 yuan / ton. The white carbon black was mainly in stable operation. Compared with the same period last week, there was no obvious change in the price. This week, the overall white carbon black market was mainly in stable operation, with balanced supply and demand. The negotiation atmosphere was general, the overall market was stable and stable, and the supply and demand were balanced. At present, the market supply side was normal, and the just needed purchase was the main one. The white carbon black market price was stable, Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market supply and demand are balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat,.

In late August, as of August 29, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 5925.00 yuan / ton. The white carbon black was mainly in stable operation. Compared with the same period last week, there was no significant change in the price. This week, the overall white carbon black market was mainly in stable operation, with balanced supply and demand. The negotiation atmosphere was general, the overall market was stable and stable, and the supply and demand were balanced. At present, the market supply side is normal, and the white carbon black market price is mainly in a stable trend, Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical commodity index: on August 31, the chemical index was 952 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 32.00% from the highest point 1400 points (October 23, 2021) in the cycle, and up 59.20% from the lowest point 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

According to the white carbon black analyst of the business association, it is expected that the white carbon black market will mainly operate stably in September, which can improve the market supply and demand balance, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club, get commodity information and master commodity prices).