Price trend

 

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According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the PC market rose in September, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of September 30, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of the business community was about 19000 yuan/ton, up or down by+10.14% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

Cause analysis

 

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic market of bisphenol A rose sharply in September. At the beginning of the month, the market accepted the market of more overhaul devices last month. The domestic supply declined, the supply of imported goods was generally supplemented, the price of the external market rose, and business confidence was strengthened. Before the Mid Autumn Festival, phenolics and ketones continued to rise, which came from increased cost pressure. After the festival, factories returned to the market increased. The factory mainly supplies contract users. After a sharp rise in bisphenol A, the downstream follow-up at the end of the month was weakened, and the actual orders were seriously insufficient. From the downstream perspective, the rising trend has slowed down, the overall demand enthusiasm is not high, the high level negotiation is insufficient, and the short-term bisphenol A offer maintains a strong operation.

 

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Bisphenol A market rose significantly in September, and PC cost side support continued to strengthen. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises changed slightly this month, and was generally stable at more than 60%. At present, the supply of goods on the site is still abundant, and the supply side pressure is limited. Some enterprises have parking plans in the middle of the month, and the supply is expected to be tightened. The production restriction policies of downstream enterprises, such as high level power restriction, have been gradually lifted, but the actual demand has not improved significantly. After the rise of superimposed PC, the acceptance declined, and the terminal enterprise’s stock operation stopped at the end of the month. This month, PC enterprises were forced by the cost pressure to keep the ex factory price rising. After the rise, the merchants shipped with the profit plate at the end of the month, which caused a drag on the spot price center, and the price stagnated.

 

Future market forecast

 

Analysts from the business community believe that the domestic PC market rose in September, the upstream bisphenol A market rose significantly, and the cost side continued to exert pressure on PC. In terms of supply, there are abundant goods on the market, while in terms of demand, the goods are weak, and the stock before the festival is not as expected. The buyer’s acceptance of the price after the rise is not good, and the market is limited in the atmosphere of pursuing the rise. The real deal is mainly scattered small orders. Although the increase at the end of the month was hindered, due to the support of the cost side, it is expected that the spot price of PC will be strong after the festival.

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1、 Price trend:

 

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According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the domestic market of PA6 rose first and then fell in September, and the spot prices of various brands were adjusted in an overall shock. As of September 30, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of the sample enterprise for China Bond was about 14000 yuan/ton, up or down by+1.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

 

Industrial chain: In terms of upstream, caprolactam market rose first and then fell in September, pure benzene as raw material rose in shock, and caprolactam cost support was average. At the beginning of this month, caprolactam undertook the increase in the prices of equipment maintenance enterprises of production enterprises, and the supply pressure was fair. Downstream enterprises purchased caprolactam on demand, and the mid month turnover gradually improved. In the second half of the month after the increase, buyers gradually resisted and purchased at lower prices. In addition, the supply of caprolactam in the field has increased due to the restart of some manufacturers’ devices. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by the weak situation in the short term.

 

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Upstream caprolactam market trend rose and fell back, and PA6 cost end support fluctuated in September. Within the month, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants had a limited change and remained above 60% on the whole. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of aggregation enterprises is poor. The production and consumption of terminal enterprises in this month are in the traditional peak season. The quantity of goods shipped in the first half of the month has gradually increased, but the buyer’s wait-and-see atmosphere has increased after the spot price has risen. The operating rate of the terminal enterprises is fair, and the demand release is less than that of previous years. It is reported that a new PA6 unit will be put into operation next month, which will affect the atmosphere of goods preparation before the end of the month. The speed of goods delivery in the yard will decrease, resulting in a narrow increase in inventory. At present, the operators are bearish about the future market. Traders often offer profit concessions when they go along with the market. Buyers buy up but not down. They are cautious in preparing goods.

 

3、 Future market forecast:

 

Analysts from the business community believe that: in September, the spot price of PA6 fell back after rising, the price of caprolactam fluctuated, and the cost of PA6 supported fluctuations. As the industry worried about the news of capacity expansion next month, the market momentum decreased. It is expected that the market of PA6 will continue to be weak in the short term.

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According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market was corrected after the rise in September, and the spot prices of all wire drawing brands rose and fell. As of September 30, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8158.33 yuan/ton, up or down by+1.24% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

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Cause analysis

 

Industrial chain: upstream, propylene market rose this month. In the middle of the month, the supply side contracted periodically, and some enterprises restarted and overhauled. Affected by this, spot goods on the market decreased, supporting the price rise. The demand of downstream enterprises is higher due to the removal of power and production restriction, traditional peak demand season and other factors. Although the fluctuation of crude oil in September superimposed on the impact of macroeconomic pessimism, the supply and demand of propylene market were weak. At the same time, the export data in July and August showed that propylene imports decreased, import resources decreased, domestic propylene capacity utilization increased, and the market rose on support.

 

The price of propylene rose, the price of crude oil at the far end fluctuated, and the PP cost in September was generally supported. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises was adjusted by a narrow margin in September, and the overall load of the domestic industry was more than 70%. In terms of inventory, due to the rise of PP price in the middle of the month, buyers have limited acceptance of the high offer. In the middle of the month, there is a certain amount of accumulated inventory, while the domestic inventory at the end of the month has decreased significantly, so the pressure on spot is fair. In terms of terminal enterprises, the load of terminal enterprises is generally higher in the peak demand season. Plastic weaving enterprises and BOPP enterprises had a relatively significant demand, but the consumption growth in the second half of the month was less than expected, the merchants’ mentality weakened, and the offer fell back.

 

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 30, the spot price of domestic fiber PP had risen in a narrow range. The mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is about 8200 yuan/ton, which is+2.29% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month, and -10.05% lower than the same period last year. In this month, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, was stable, the offer of spunbonded non-woven fabrics was stable, and the demand of terminal enterprises was operating in a narrow range. The digestion speed of nonwoven terminal products is acceptable, and the enterprise prefers to just take the goods for fiber PP replenishment. The delivery and investment of fiber materials on the site are general, and the fiber material market is firmly supported by the cost side, which may still maintain a stable operation in the short term.

 

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In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market fell by a narrow margin in September. As of September 30, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 9100 yuan/ton, up or down by -0.73% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and down by – 4.21% year-on-year. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic, and neighboring Japan has witnessed explosive development recently. There is rebound in some areas of China, but the overall epidemic prevention pressure is not strong, and the pulling effect on medical melt blown fabric materials is limited. The domestic and foreign demand has not significantly helped, and the support for spot prices is poor. The inventory of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP will still run sideways.

 

Future market forecast

 

PP analysts from the business community believed that the overall polypropylene market rose slightly in September, the raw propylene market continued to rise, the far upstream crude oil fluctuated, and the PP cost side support was fair. Terminal enterprises just need to support the spot, but the support has weakened after the price rise. The social inventory position at the end of the month was not high, and the buyer and seller were cautious in their operation. The traditional peak season demand volume is lower than expected, and PP market is expected to be adjusted after the festival.

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In September, the domestic methanol market rose unilaterally. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic methanol market in East China in early September was 2528 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3012 yuan/ton. The price increased by 19.17% in the month, with the maximum amplitude of 20.35%, down 16.61% year on year.

 

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According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have risen month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls in August 2022, including 5 kinds of commodities that have risen more than 5%, accounting for 38.5% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were diesel (12.09%), gasoline (10.91%) and dimethyl ether (7.04%). There were 4 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities that declined by more than 5%, accounting for 23.1% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three decline products were LNG (-9.63%), WTI crude oil (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-5.90%). The average rise and fall this month was 1.84%.

 

Summary of methanol market prices by regions as of September 30:

 

Region, price

Qinghai region, no quotation

In Shanxi Province, the mainstream ex factory price refers to 2560 yuan/ton factory cash

Liaoning, about 2740-2760 yuan/ton

Fujian Province, 2820-2860 yuan/ton

Two Lakes region, about 2900-2915 yuan/ton

Anhui Province, about 2840-2900 yuan/ton

Henan, 2950 yuan/ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market rose in shock. The main reasons are the short term shortage of supply and the short term rise in demand. The downstream receiving price has risen significantly. There is a demand for goods in stock. The traders’ mentality is stable and improving. The quotations of major manufacturers at ports and in the mainland have been continuously raised. Some manufacturers have been bidding well, mainly at a premium starting price. However, the rise in freight has restrained the growth of the internal real estate area.

 

In the first ten days of this month, the domestic methanol market rose sharply and fell back. In the early stage, the methanol price rose significantly. Recently, the rise slowed down, and prices in some regions fell back. The international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, while the coal price supported at a high level. At present, the main reasons that affect the methanol price are supply and demand. Most of the early maintenance devices have been restarted, and new devices such as Jiutai and Kunpeng have been put into operation. The supply has increased. However, the demand is general, most of them are rigid, and there is no sign of increase in the short term. Traders are mainly wait-and-see, and the international demand is poor. The rise of methanol market has slowed down, and the market is mainly volatile.

 

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic methanol market in East China rose in shock, and some traders had no offers. Although the international crude oil fluctuates downward, the coal price is firm, the raw materials support the methanol market, and there is a strong intention to stock up downstream before the festival. There is a slight difference between regions. Some regions are short of supply and have strong demand. Some regions have sufficient supply and general demand. The trend of the methanol market is slightly different between regions.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in August 2022, there were 5 kinds of rising commodities, 3 kinds of falling commodities, and 0 kinds of zero rising and falling commodities in the methanol industry price list. The main commodities that rose were dimethyl ether (7.04%), chloroform (4.63%) and formaldehyde (3.87%); The main commodities falling were acetic acid (-9.25%), DMF (-5.56%) and methanol (-0.59%). The average rise and fall this month was 0.4%.

 

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In terms of external market, as of September 29, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 366.00-367.00 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. The US Gulf methanol market closed at 105.75-106.75 cents/gallon, down 1 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 350.00-351.00 euros/ton.

 

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 366.00-367.00 USD/ton, 2 USD/ton

Europe and America, Gulf of America, 105.75-106.75 cents/gallon, – 1 cents/gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 350.00-351.00 euro/ton, 0 euro/ton

 

The firm coal price supports the production cost of enterprises. Methanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be strong.

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