1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose sharply this week. As of November 11, spot nickel was quoted at 209033.33 yuan/ton, up 7.52% from the beginning of the week and 42.75% year on year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose by 4, fell by 1, and has strengthened recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

As of November 10, LME nickel inventory was 50382 tons, 30 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 1644 tons, a decrease of 3.16%.

Macroscopically, consumer prices (cpi) in the United States rose less than expected last month. The official inflation rate fell to 7.7%, lower than 8.2% in August, and lower than 7.9% expected by economists. Senior officials of the Federal Reserve support slowing the pace of interest rate increase. A lower peak in US interest rates will help metals as higher interest rates restrain economic activity and boost the US dollar. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in October, the demand of some industries increased, and the national PPI rose slightly month on month. However, affected by the high comparison base in the same period last year, it turned from rising to falling year on year.

In terms of supply and demand, nickel ore is affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, and the supply starts to decline. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the cost support is strong. Downstream stainless steel production scheduling increased on a month on month basis, and the demand side began to weaken. The stainless steel inventory accumulated, and procurement fell back. Inventory at home and abroad still remains at a historical low. In addition, LME’s concern about the Russian nickel resource sanctions remained unchanged. The nickel industry chain is now in a pattern of weak supply and demand.

To sum up, the market’s expectation that the Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate hikes continues to rise, the dollar index falls sharply, and the pressure above nonferrous metals continues to ease. As November gradually entered the slack season, stainless steel may gradually return to the weak operation, and the higher production scheduling plan has also increased the digestion pressure. The industrial chain may gradually enter the negative feedback, which has also become the main factor restricting the nickel price. At present, macro factors influence the overseas market, while the domestic market follows passively. With the expectation that the fundamentals cannot be effectively improved, nickel price is expected to maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 7 to 14, the domestic ethanol market was slightly sorted out. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic ethanol producers remained at 6737 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it reached 6725 yuan/ton. The price fell 0.19% within the week, 0.92% month on month, and 3.58% year on year.

The domestic ethanol market continues to be dominated by weak transactions. The supply side is relatively abundant in the short term, and the operating capacity of production plants is higher than that in October. However, the demand side is limited in the short term, which continues to be weak, and it is difficult to see significant benefits in the short term. The transaction price of the domestic ethanol market continues to be dominated by weak operations

In terms of raw materials and costs, the business community monitored that the domestic corn market price was relatively strong, rising 0.35% from 2802 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 28127 yuan/ton at the end of the week.

From the perspective of downstream products, the commencement of downstream ethyl acetate basically remained stable, and the price was low. The business community monitored that the price of ethyl acetate remained at 6950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and fell to 6933 yuan/ton at the weekend, with a 0.24% drop in the price during the cycle.

In the short term, the price of corn is mainly stable, and the supply in the later period is increased, which may be weak. The downstream ethyl acetate operates weakly and stably. The ethanol analysts of the business community predicted that the domestic ethanol market would be weak in the short term.

Aluminum fluoride price rises this week

According to the data of the business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose continuously this week. As of November 14, the average price of aluminum fluoride in China was 11600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton or 2.65% from 11300 yuan/ton on November 6.

Price rise of raw materials

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite rose slightly this week. As of November 14, the price of fluorite was 3200 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from 3187.50 yuan/ton on November 6; The price of hydrofluoric acid rose continuously this week. As of November 14, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11185.71 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from 11128.57 yuan/ton on November 6. This week, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and there was still great downward pressure on aluminum fluoride.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts from the aluminum fluoride industry of the business community believed that: the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride remained strong downward pressure. In the future, the cost will continue to rise, and the aluminum fluoride price is expected to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has risen for four consecutive times. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week is 7090 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend is 7330 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.38%, down 5.9% from 30 days ago.

As of November 11, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., November 4

Shandong, 6950-7050 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 6600-6800 yuan/ton

East China, 7050-7100 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation in the propylene (Shandong) market was 7300-7400 yuan/ton. During the price increase period, goods were delivered smoothly on the market, and downstream demand was the main demand. The market trading and investment atmosphere is fair, and the enterprise inventory is controllable. During the week, some units in Shandong stopped and the supply decreased, which was good for the rapid rise of the Shandong market. At the same time, downstream trading and investment were active. With the price rising many times, the atmosphere of downstream trading and investment began to weaken, and the market price stopped rising and stabilized on Friday.

Upstream: crude oil prices fell for three consecutive weeks this week. As of the end of November 10, WTI rose 0.64 to 86.47 dollars/barrel in December, up 0.74%; In January, Brent rose 1.02 to 93.67 dollars/barrel, up 1.10%. Although there was a rebound over the weekend, the decline was greater than the increase. The overall price of raw materials is weak, and the market supply of methanol increased due to the recovery of early maintenance devices and load reduction devices. However, in terms of demand, most of them were purchased on demand, and the price of methanol fell sharply due to the imbalance between supply and demand. Weak cost support, dragging down propylene prices.

Downstream: Some downstream products gave up their gains, and the n-butanol market started to fall back from a high point. This week, the gains were mainly digested. Polypropylene market is weak. Under the restriction of demand, the strengthening futures and rising costs have limited impact on it. Propylene oxide has little price fluctuation supported by propylene cost.

3、 Future market forecast

According to propylene analysts from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative, the contradiction between supply and demand brought about by the rising market this week will gradually become prominent, and the downstream will start to show a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, with weak cost support, it is expected that propylene will continue to rise in the later period, with little feasibility, mainly consolidation.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 4, the price of PET water bottle has been operating in a narrow and weak range. At present, the average price is 7166.00 yuan/ton, which is 1.65% lower than that of the same period last week, with a drop of about 100 yuan/ton. The overall market price is weak and downward. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable.

This week, the domestic PET price is narrow and weak, with the mainstream price at about 7200 yuan/ton. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the logistics is smooth, the supply side is normal, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the downstream readiness is general. At present, the mainstream price is about 7200 yuan/ton, with a small decline and weak operation.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On November 3, the rubber and plastic index was 670 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 36.79% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 26.89% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to PET analysts from the business community, the mainstream price of PET market is expected to be around 7200 yuan/ton in the short term, with a narrow range and weak operation.

The price of domestic fluorite continued to rise. As of July 7, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3200 yuan/ton, 12.06% higher than the price at the beginning of the year, 2855.56 yuan/ton, and 25.63% higher than the lowest price of 2547.22 yuan/ton at the beginning of April. Since April, the price has risen unilaterally, and is now at the highest point in the year.

The positive factors of fluorite price rise are as follows:

First: The shortage of raw ore supply drives the price of fluorite up

The operating rate of domestic supply side remains low, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral survey is still difficult. Mining enterprises are faced with increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient starting of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited starting of fluorite flotation, insufficient spot supply, serious epidemic in some regions, difficult transportation of fluorite, very tight supply of fluorite, and rising fluorite prices.

Second: The export volume of fluorite for parking of some overseas units increased significantly

From January to September 2022, the total export volume of fluorite with calcium fluoride content>97% will be 172100 tons, up 397.32% year on year. In September, the export volume of fluorite was 60000 tons, up 55% month on month and 110% year on year. The domestic acid grade fluorite has received more and more inquiries from international buyers, and the overseas mines in Canada and Mexico have stopped production. The export of fluorite has increased significantly, which has aggravated the shortage of domestic fluorite supply.

Third: The rapid development of new demand supports the price of fluorite

In addition to the well-known fluorine chemical industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy and semiconductors and other fields, the outlook of fluorite industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises are about to enter a seasonal shutdown period. In addition to the recent shortage of raw material fluorite ore supply, the refrigerant industry began to stock up in the fourth quarter. The new energy, semiconductor and new material industries developed rapidly, supporting the demand for fluorite for a long time. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that the fluorite market price may still have room to rise.

This week’s (10.31-11.7) nitrile rubber market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of nitrile rubber as of November 5 was 15425 yuan/ton, down 1.44% from 16650 yuan/ton last Monday. Downstream demand is weak, and the market offer is slightly higher. As of the 7th day, the mainstream of the domestic Lanhua nitrile N41 market was 14200~14600 yuan/ton; The mainstream report of Russian nitrile 2665 market is 14000~14300 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 reported 17700~18100 yuan/ton.

This week (10.31-11.7), the price of raw butadiene and acrylonitrile decreased, and the cost of nitrile rubber was differentiated. In addition, the downstream demand is weak, the merchants ship at low prices, and the market price of nitrile rubber drops. However, with the maintenance of Nandi’s nitrile device this week, the pressure on the supply side of nitrile has eased slightly, and the decline has slowed down in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 7, the price of butadiene was 7146 yuan/ton, down 6.02% from 7603 yuan/ton last Monday; As of November 7, the price of acrylonitrile was 11150 yuan/ton, up 2.39% from 10890 on Monday.

The load of domestic nitrile rubber plant decreased slightly, and the supply side pressure eased slightly in the short term. According to the business community, Zhenjiang Nandi’s 50000 t/a nitrile rubber package was parked this week, and it is planned to restart in the middle of November; Lanzhou Petrochemical 100000 t/a nitrile rubber plant operates normally; The 30000 t/a nitrile rubber plant of Nanjing Jinpu Insa Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. is in normal production; The load of 65000 t/a unit in Ningbo Shunze was raised to normal operation.

After the festival, the construction of nitrile rubber downstream is mainly stable. There are few new orders for nitrile enterprises, the market turnover is light, and the demand for nitrile rubber is insufficient.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the current cost of NBR is differentiated, the demand side is insufficient, and the supply side is slightly declining. It is expected that the NBR market will be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the beginning of this week is 3950 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the end of this week is 3950 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable.

At present, the sales price of 60% crystals of potassium sulfate manufacturers in the market is mostly 3500-3800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. In terms of potassium import, the port has a certain amount of goods to supplement, and the port stock is also gradually rising, and the supply continues to be sufficient. The ex factory price of 60% potassium chloride powder imported from the port is more than 3500-3800 yuan/ton. The southern market is slightly special, and the price remains high. The price of 62% white potassium is 3600-3750 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles is more than 3600-3700 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is based on the order form.

The overall supply of goods in the domestic potash fertilizer market is large, the production of domestic potassium chloride manufacturers is normal, and the railway can ship normally, but the automobile transportation is limited. The import potassium ports still have new sources of goods, but the arrival of goods from border trade and China Europe railway has decreased. On the whole, the supply of potassium fertilizer is sufficient.

Forecast: The overall trend of domestic potash fertilizer market is still weak, and it is expected that the potash fertilizer market will still operate in a weak consolidation in the later period.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market of dichloromethane declined in October. As of October 31, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2950 yuan/ton, down 6.65% from 3160 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and up 2.97% from the monthly low of 2865 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the price of raw material methanol is low, and the cost support is weak; On the other hand, the construction of Jinling methane chloride plant reached a high level in the first half of October, and the supply of dichloromethane was loose. Under the pressure of cost and supply, the factory price of domestic dichloromethane fell in the early stage and rose slightly at the end of the month. The offer of merchants fluctuated with the factory price.

The supply of dichloromethane was loose in the first half of October, and the market supply was sufficient, and the price fell; At the end of the month, a number of enterprises began to reduce their load and park their cars. The supply side became tight and rebounded slightly at the end of the month.

The price of raw materials fell sharply, and the cost of dichloromethane dragged down the price. According to the business community, as of October 31, the spot price of methanol was 2757 yuan/ton, down 8.46% from 3012 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the supply side of methanol was abundant, the demand side did not improve, and the methanol market continued to fall. Local transportation is limited, and some enterprises have increased their inventories, which further aggravates the wait-and-see mood of traders.

In October, the third generation refrigerant R32 downstream of dichloromethane started at a low level. In addition, the thinner/coating industry started at a low level, with weak demand, and the price of dichloromethane fell.

Future forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the cost of dichloromethane is down, the demand is weak, but the supply is tight. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will continue to rebound slightly in the short term.

In October, the domestic ethanol market rose first and then fell, with a narrow range of shocks. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the price at the beginning and end of the month was 6762 yuan/ton, the maximum amplitude in the month was 0.92%, and the price rose 2.86% year on year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic ethanol market was in shock. After the National Day holiday, the downstream demand for ethanol was stable, and the starting load was not boosted. At the same time, the logistics recovered after the holiday, and the domestic ethanol market was dominated by normal spot shipments. The price of raw corn was adjusted by shocks, with a short-term upward trend as the main trend. The cost of ethanol was strongly supported. In terms of demand, the operating rate of chemical ethyl acetate was high, which was driven by favorable factors in the short term.

In the middle of this month, the domestic ethanol market was narrowed. In terms of raw materials, the price of corn was adjusted by shocks. The short-term upward trend was dominant, and the cost support was strong; The demand side maintained stable operation, the starting load of acetate was temporarily stable at a high level, and the short-term demand side procurement was stable. The start-up load of enterprises’ equipment continues to be weak, and the logistics in some areas is limited, and the freight rate has increased slightly in the short term.

At the end of this month, the domestic ethanol market price continued to fluctuate. The price of corn is temporarily stable at a high level, with limited vibration and strong cost support. The purchase price of the main downstream factories of acetate declined slightly, the starting load of the acetate industry remained low and stable, and the consumption did not increase. The ethanol market is stable and weak.

Strong cost support and stable demand operation. The ethanol analyst of the business association predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would be mainly settled by shocks.