According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market fell in late November, and the spot prices of wire drawing brands decreased. As of November 28, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders T30S (wire drawing) was about 7866.67 yuan/ton, up or down by – 0.32% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain. It is expected that in December, the demand will further weaken, and with the escalation of the national public health and security incidents, the propylene market may fluctuate downward.

The propylene price is relatively strong, and the recent PP cost side support is fair. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises last week exceeded 80%. There is pressure on the supply side. In terms of inventory, the storage position of two barrels of oil is about 760000 tons, a narrow decline compared with the previous period. In terms of demand, the market of downstream products is not good, and the stock volume of plastic weaving enterprises and BOPP enterprises is gradually reduced. In addition to the negative impact of global macroeconomic prospects and imported inflation, the market mentality is empty, and businesses generally follow the trend.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 28, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell on the whole. The mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 7983.33 yuan/ton, up or down by -0.62% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and down by – 6.99% year-on-year. Last week, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, stabilized, the profit of spunbonded non-woven fabrics was average, and the demand of terminal enterprises was stable. The digestion speed of nonwoven end products is average, and enterprises prefer to just take the goods for fiber PP replenishment. The site is empty, and the operation of shock adjustment may still be maintained in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market fell by a narrow margin last week. As of November 28, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 9000 yuan/ton, up or down by – 0.18% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and – 7.06% year-on-year. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic, and the epidemic situation in China and neighboring countries has rebounded recently. However, it has limited pulling effect on medical melt blown cloth materials. The domestic and foreign demand has not significantly helped, and the support for spot prices is poor. There is abundant supply of meltblown materials in the market, and domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises generally start construction, but the saturation is high. Melt blown materials are mainly affected by the negative cost side, and it is expected that the short-term market will be dominated by narrow amplitude shocks.

Future market forecast

PP analysts from the business agency believed that the polypropylene market fell by a narrow margin last week, and the raw propylene market was fair. The terminal enterprise just needs to pick up the goods, and the follow-up lags behind. The buyer’s operation became more cautious, and the trading in the market gradually declined. It is expected that the PP market will still be weak in the short term.

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of domestic mainstream urea market rose sharply this month: the price of urea rose from 2506.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2798.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.65%. A year-on-year increase of 12.82%.

On November 29, the urea commodity index was 130.14, unchanged from yesterday, 14.57% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and 134.06% higher than the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In November, the price of urea rose sharply, with a weekly maximum of 3.79%. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic urea mainstream market rose sharply this month.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand increases

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the urea upstream products generally fell slightly this month: the price of LNG fell slightly, from 5450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4514.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 17.17%, 35.42% year-on-year. Yangquan anthracite (washing medium fast) is 1630 yuan/ton, with a high price consolidation. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply, from 4096.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4623.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 12.86%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.76%. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea rose slightly this month, from 8266.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8333.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.81%.

In terms of demand, winter storage of chemical fertilizers has been fully started, industrial demand has increased, and export orders have been orderly promoted. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant has risen, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is good. The board and melamine enterprises started in general, and just needed to purchase. From the aspect of supply: environmental protection inspection in Shanxi has been delayed. Some gas enterprises began to shut down for maintenance, and daily urea production further decreased. The shipment of superposed urea is blocked, and the supply and demand in some regions are misaligned.

Urea rose slightly in the aftermarket

The urea market may rise slightly in the first ten days of December. At the end of the month, the upstream anthracite and natural gas prices showed an upward trend, and cost support increased. The downstream agricultural demand is followed up appropriately, and the industrial demand is purchased on demand. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons, and the supply is tight. In the future, urea may rise slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 5, 2022, the reference of the average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 5733 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5633 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, or 1.78%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the first week of December (12.01-12.05), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market as a whole rose slightly. The macro favorable policy has brought positive support to the dimethyl carbonate market. The confidence of the dimethyl carbonate industry has increased. In addition, the rising raw material propylene oxide market has strengthened the cost support of dimethyl carbonate in December. On December 5, the overall focus of the dimethyl carbonate market has risen, and the atmosphere in the market has slightly warmed. Some dimethyl carbonate plants have slightly raised the price of dimethyl carbonate by 100-200 yuan/ton. The domestic price of dimethyl carbonate is around 5600-5900 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the overall domestic propylene oxide market rose in December. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9162.50 yuan/ton on December 4, up 0.27% compared with December 1 (9137.50 yuan/ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the action force in the market of dimethyl carbonate is mainly from the macro positive support and cost support. In addition, the adjustment under different production and sales conditions of dimethyl carbonate in various factories, the transaction of dimethyl carbonate is relatively flat, and the overall demand side support is general. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price fell sharply this month, and the average price of the domestic neopentyl glycol mainstream market fell from 10066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 10.93%. On November 29, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 43.21, up 0.16 points from yesterday, down 58.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 0.37% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of the mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers fell sharply this month

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this month. The price of isobutyraldehyde dropped from 6600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6233.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.56%. The factory price of formaldehyde in China fell slightly this month. The price of formaldehyde fell from 1383.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1343.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.89%. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the price support for neopentyl glycol was insufficient due to the influence of supply and demand.

3、 Future market forecast

The overall trend of neopentyl glycol market in the first half of December was mainly down due to slight shock. The upstream isobutyraldehyde and formaldehyde market declined slightly, and cost support weakened. The market price of downstream coatings is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. The neopentyl glycol analysts of the business community believe that the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may fluctuate slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.