1、 Price trend
Business agency: the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose sharply at the end of January
According to the data of Business News Agency, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride as of January 31 was 7440.00 yuan/ton (tax included), up 7.44% from 6925.00 yuan/ton on January 1.
The commodity index of maleic anhydride on January 31 was 70.09, which was the same as yesterday, down 57.89% from the highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15) in the cycle, and up 36.95% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In January, the domestic phenylmaleic anhydride market continued to shut down. At the beginning of the month, due to the impact of logistics, the available supply of maleic anhydride is limited, and downstream resins have entered the shutdown period in succession. The procurement is prudent and based on demand. After the holiday, the main factories pushed up positively, the downstream demand recovered generally, and the willingness to enter the market was low. As of the 31st, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7600 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 7500 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7800 yuan/ton.
In January, the international crude oil price fluctuated. On the one hand, the number of oil and natural gas rigs of American energy companies decreased by 8, the largest monthly decline since July 2020, and also the first two consecutive months since July 2020. US crude oil supply has declined, supporting international oil prices. On the other hand, the economic recovery in the Asian region, China’s crude oil import volume increased significantly, and the positive demand recovery supported the rise of international oil prices. However, the inflation level of western developed economies is high, and it is difficult to tighten monetary policy or withdraw in the short term, which will harm the global economy and undermine the international crude oil price.
In January, the hydrogenation benzene market was dominated by the ex-factory price in North China at 6566.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 8.12%. At present, the support for pure benzene fundamentals is moderate, while crude oil and styrene tend to be strong, which has strong support for the pure benzene market. After the holiday, there is still a certain demand for procurement in the market, and it is expected that the overall trend of the industrial chain will be stable, medium and strong under the boost of fundamentals.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
The analysts of maleic anhydride products of the Business Club believe that the domestic maleic anhydride market in January was mainly sorted before the holiday, and rose sharply after the holiday. At present, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market is seriously deficient, the factory is shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small; After the holiday, the main factories pushed up positively, the downstream demand recovered generally, and the willingness to enter the market was low. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be sorted out in the near future.