According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene continued to rise this week (7.31-8.7). On July 31st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7860 yuan/ton, while on August 7th, the benchmark price was 8030.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16%.

International crude oil futures continued to rise on Friday. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 09 contract was $82.82 per barrel, up 2.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract 10 was $86.24 per barrel, up 2.02%. There are reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend their independent production reduction period until September, or even longer, as supply tightening is expected to intensify.

Downstream: The domestic TDI market is undergoing strong consolidation and operation. According to market news, the Mitsui TDI device in Japan was recently shut down due to the impact of a typhoon, and the DI device of a large factory in North China in China experienced a malfunction and dropped to 50% operation. The supplier’s news is positive, and the bullish intention in the trade market has increased. The high prices quoted by the holders have been firm. Downstream buyers follow up on the demand for high priced goods, and the on-site supply is strong. In the short term, the TDI market is operating stronger, so we will pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation in the future.

In terms of downstream PX, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal, and PX external market prices remain high due to the rise of crude oil. As of the 3rd, the closing prices in Asia are 1021-1023 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1046-1048 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

The trend of gasoline prices is also rising, on the one hand, the demand is improving to support the oil market. The peak summer driving season in the United States is still playing a role, with peak travel leading to positive fuel consumption. In addition, there is hope for the future of Chinese demand, and China has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures to support fuel consumption. On the other hand, international crude oil prices continue to rise, and the cost of finished oil forms strong support. International crude oil futures continued to rise on Friday. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 09 contract was $82.82 per barrel, up 2.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract 10 was $86.24 per barrel, up 2.02%.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices will continue to operate at high levels in the short term, with support for the cost of toluene; In the short term, the shortage of toluene supply will continue, driving the high level operation of toluene; Although the supply side may have eased in August, the downstream product oil of toluene is expected to continue to operate at a high level, providing support for toluene; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will mainly operate at a high level in August.

Price trend of domestic Sodium metabisulfite

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic Sodium metabisulfite rebounded from the bottom this week. The average price of industrial Sodium metabisulfite was 1866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 1933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 3.57% in the week.

Supported by the continuous rising cost of raw materials, in August, the manufacturer successively raised the ex factory price, driving the domestic industrial Sodium metabisulfite market price to the bottom of the traditional style at the beginning of the month. This week, the domestic industrial Sodium metabisulfite ranged from 1850 to 2300 yuan/ton, and most prices were concentrated around 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

In July, the price of domestic soda ash rose by 5.1%, and the price of sulfur rose by 18.69%. The rising cost of raw materials strongly supported the bottoming of domestic Sodium metabisulfite. As of August 4, the price of soda ash continued to rise, rising by 2.23% in the month, and the price of sulfur was relatively strong, rising by 3.91% in the month. The continued rising cost of raw materials will further support the market price of Sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the domestic market price of Sodium metabisulfite still has some room to rise in the short term under the dual support of cost and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 28, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6640 yuan/ton, which was 0.61% higher than the reference average price of 6600 yuan/ton on July 24.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 28th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6433 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6433 yuan/ton on June 24th. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market price has slightly increased this week. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is strong, with some support for costs. However, the downstream still maintains a wait-and-see attitude, with immediate replenishment being the main focus, and the market trading atmosphere is average. As of July 28, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 6700 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 6700-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5700-7300 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus has been strong this week, and the market spot is slightly tight. It is difficult to find low-priced sources of goods on the market, and the atmosphere of new order negotiations is relatively strong. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is around 23500-23700 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the recent narrow adjustment in phosphoric acid prices has resulted in acceptable support for raw materials. However, downstream demand performance is average, with downstream cautious wait-and-see as the main focus. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will slightly adjust and operate in the short term.

Price trend of domestic Sodium metabisulfite

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic price of Sodium metabisulfite was slightly weak in July, and then the overall weakness became stable. The average price of industrial Sodium metabisulfite was 1966.67 yuan/ton on July 1, 1866.67 yuan/ton on July 31, down 5.08% in the month.

Pressed by the sharp decline in the price of upstream raw materials, the manufacturer slightly lowered the ex factory price in July, driving the price of domestic Sodium metabisulfite market to further decline. In the first ten days, the mainstream price of domestic industrial Sodium metabisulfite market fell to around 1800-1900 yuan/ton as a whole. Since the middle of the year, the price of domestic soda ash has rebounded slightly, the price of sulfur has rebounded from the bottom, the cost of raw materials has stopped falling and rebounded, and the domestic Sodium metabisulfite has moved forward steadily as a whole.

In July, the price of domestic calcined soda rose slightly, rising 5.1% in the month, and the price of calcined soda rose significantly, rising 18.69% in the month. The rebound of raw material cost will strongly support the price of domestic Sodium metabisulfite market in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the cost of raw materials has stopped falling and rebounded, and downstream trade entities are more willing to stock up. Supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the overall price of domestic Sodium metabisulfite market will rebound in August.