According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 11, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8533 yuan/ton. Compared with December 7 (reference price of n-butanol was 8700 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.92%. Compared with December 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 767 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.87%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early December, the domestic Shandong region’s n-butanol market showed a broad upward trend. At the beginning of the month, the overall performance of the n-butanol supply side was tight, and the downstream of n-butanol entered a phase of stocking. Supported by both supply and demand, the focus of the n-butanol market is constantly shifting towards the high-end market. On December 10th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong region was around 8700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 12.02% in the first half of the year.

However, as downstream demand and stocking of n-butanol gradually ended, the overall trading on the market returned to calm. In addition, the supply side of n-butanol gradually recovered, and the overall supply of n-butanol increased. The wait-and-see sentiment on the market became stronger. In the early to mid stage, the n-butanol market began a weak decline. On December 11th, the overall price of n-butanol in the Shandong region adjusted downwards, with a decrease of 100-200 yuan/ton, The market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8400-8700 yuan/ton, with a decrease of nearly 2% compared to the high point in the early stage.

Market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the exchange is relatively light, and the enthusiasm for inquiries on the exchange is average. The overall support provided by the supply and demand side to the market has weakened compared to the previous period. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will mostly be weak with narrow range fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in the supply and demand side news.

The domestic price of sodium metabisulfite continued to rise this week, with an average price of 2450.00 yuan/ton for industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week and an average price of 2500.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 2.04% during the week.

In December, supported by the continuous increase in raw material prices, enterprises have once again raised the factory price of sodium metabisulfite, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to continue to rise. This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range was 2400-2800 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 2400-2600 yuan/ton. The inventory of enterprises continues to be low, and the overall supply of sodium metabisulfite market is tight. Enterprises mainly fulfill orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to the quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been reported are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of December 8th, domestic soda ash prices have continued to rise, rising by 6.11% within the month. Sulfur prices have remained stable and are expected to continue to rise, which will provide some support for the future market price of sodium metabisulfite.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to remain strong in the short term.

DBP prices of plasticizers fluctuated and consolidated in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 29th, the DBP price was 9500 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the DBP price of 9500 yuan/ton on November 1st. The raw material n-butanol fluctuates and rises, DBP costs rise, DBP enterprises have a high operating rate, and sales performance is good, with active downstream procurement. DBP prices fluctuated and consolidated in November.

In mid November, the operating rate of DBP enterprises increased to around 75%, reaching a high of 80%, significantly higher than the monthly average operating rate in October, an increase of about 24%. DBP company has no maintenance and parking plans in the near future, and it is expected that the production load will be good. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of DBP market will remain strong in the next two weeks.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 29th, the price of n-butanol was 7833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.91% compared to the price of n-butanol on November 1st, which was 7466.67 yuan/ton. In the first and middle of November, the n-butanol market experienced a jump in price reduction and stocking. In the latter half of the month, some n-butanol enterprises experienced an increase in temporary equipment shutdown and maintenance, resulting in a decrease in n-butanol supply. In addition, plasticizer enterprises started operating at a high level, and downstream markets were actively restocking, leading to a continuous increase in n-butanol prices. Cost support increases the driving force for DBP growth.

Statistics on export data of plasticizer DBP

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative export volume from January to October 2023 was 2322.47 tons, setting a record for exports since 2017. It can be seen from the graph that the export volume of DBP has been steadily increasing over the past 18 years. The stable growth of demand in foreign markets is beneficial for the domestic DBP market.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that plasticizer DBP enterprises are operating at a high level, while exports continue to grow steadily. The supply and demand of plasticizer DBP are booming, and the price changes of plasticizer DBP mainly depend on changes in raw material prices. In terms of raw materials: In November, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The cost of DBP raw materials supported the strong consolidation of DBP. In the future, DBP supply and demand are both strong, and the raw material n-butanol is expected to remain stable and strong, while the price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rebound from the bottom. The cost of plasticizers is supported, and it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price index of rare earth market in November declined, with a slight increase in the domestic heavy rare earth market and a decrease in the price index of light rare earth market. On November 29, the rare earth index was 488 points, a decrease of 25 points from the first day, a decrease of 51.54% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 80.07% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metallic praseodymium neodymium have decreased. As of the end of the month, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 482500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.85%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 592500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.95% in price; The price of neodymium oxide is 490000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.31% in price; The price of neodymium metal was 657500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.32% in price; The price of praseodymium metal was 620000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.46% in price; The price of praseodymium oxide is 495500 yuan/ton, with a price trend decreasing by 6.16%.

The trend of the light rare earth market in November has declined. Recently, the light rare earth market has mainly relied on transactions in demand, with a lackluster trading situation. There has been a double decline in commodity production and market inventory, and the overall market support is insufficient. Pessimism has intensified, leading to a continuous decline in rare earth market prices. Downstream magnetic material factories mostly rely on sales to determine production, resulting in a small number of new orders in the industry and a continuous decline in profit margins, making it difficult for small and medium-sized manufacturers to survive. The price of praseodymium neodymium metal is still inverted, and the transaction situation is poor. Most magnetic material enterprises have seen their operating rates decline to around 70%, mainly due to inventory consumption and reduced procurement, resulting in sluggish prices in the domestic rare earth market.

The domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series market first fell and then rose. As of the end of the month, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.65 million yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 257.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal is 3.395 million yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15% compared to the beginning of the month; The domestic price of terbium series has slightly decreased, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 7.9 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 9.45 million yuan/ton. In early November, downstream enterprises were not active in procurement. Currently, most of the metal purchases are based on rigid demand, and there are not many orders in terms of procurement. The prices of heavy rare earths in the market are mainly decreasing. The price trend of heavy rare earth market has rebounded in the middle and late stages, with downstream large factories continuing to support the market. Market confidence is sufficient, and orders for procurement have increased, leading to an increase in the price trend of heavy rare earth market. The inverted situation of rare earth metal prices has improved, with an increase in on-site inquiries and some traders actively entering the market. In addition, due to the recent political impact on Myanmar, import sources in Myanmar have been restricted to some extent, which has supported the upward trend of prices in the domestic heavy rare earth market.

According to statistics, in October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 989000 and 956000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 5.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.2% and 33.5%, respectively. From January to October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 7.352 million and 7.28 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.9% and 37.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, rare earth exports in October reached 4290.6 tons, a month on month increase of 9.0%; The cumulative rare earth exports from January to October were 44661.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The export volume of rare earth commodities from China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources have issued the second batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023. The total control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2023 are 120000 tons and 115000 tons, respectively. In 2023, the total control index of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 240000 tons and 230000 tons, respectively, an increase of 14.3% and 13.9% compared with 2022. The increase of mining output will correspondingly suppress the growth of rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is still good, with an increase in new orders. In addition, the supply of medium and heavy rare earths is slightly tight, and it is expected that the price trend of the heavy rare earths market will mainly rise in the short term. However, the purchasing sentiment of light rare earths is not good, and the market price of light rare earths is fluctuating at a low level; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

In November, domestic polycrystalline silicon continued its downward trend from the previous month, with an exacerbation of the decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly decline of single crystal dense materials is 6.82% (1.93% in October). The main reason is that the downstream market generally resists high prices, leading to an increase in supply and a buildup of inventory in enterprises. Silicon material manufacturers have weakened their bargaining power, reducing prices to clear inventory. According to data from Business Society. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range for single crystal dense materials with a model of first level solar energy is maintained at 5900-65000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers are maintaining a reasonable level of operation, and maintenance equipment has been gradually started before. The accumulation of new production facilities continuously releases production, bringing about an increase in supply, completely reversing the supply-demand pattern, and gradually revealing oversupply. In addition, the downstream crystal pulling end has a heavy wait-and-see sentiment, and actual transactions are lower than expected. This month, major silicon material factories are mainly reducing prices to clear inventory.

On the demand side, the market demand in November was relatively weak, and the overall inventory of silicon wafers continued to rise. The market entered a phase of accumulation, and some second tier silicon wafer manufacturers showed a clear willingness to reduce production. The profits of silicon wafer factories were compressed to a low level, and most crystal drawing factories have reduced their procurement volume to force silicon material manufacturers to lower prices. So although the overall transaction within the month was average, the decline in silicon wafers significantly narrowed. The game between upstream and downstream silicon material and silicon wafer manufacturers continues. As of the end of the month, model M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers have experienced a significant decline, with a monthly decrease of 0.1 yuan and mainstream transaction prices dropping to 2.30 yuan per wafer; The price of G12 single crystal silicon wafers has dropped by 0.1 yuan, and the current mainstream transaction price is 3.3 yuan per wafer.

From the perspective of downstream demand for battery cells, the production of downstream battery cells has remained stable, but there are signs of a slowdown in downstream component procurement, with the price of battery cells mainly falling. The overall price decline in November was not significant. From the perspective of terminal components, the demand for overseas projects is mainly reduced, which will become a demand constraint. However, the concentrated installation demand in China is still in an upward period, which ensures that there will not be too much fluctuation in demand. Overall, the basic balance is the main focus.

Market forecast: The supply pressure in the silicon material market will not decrease in the near future, and the destocking will continue in the future. There is still a possibility for enterprises to continue reducing prices. Moreover, there has not been much improvement in demand, so the contradiction of oversupply of silicon materials is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and it is expected that silicon materials will continue to operate weakly.

Domestic sodium metabisulfite price trend chart

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite stopped falling and slightly rebounded in November. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite on November 1st was 2450.00 yuan/ton, and on November 30th it was 2333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.76% within the month.

Entering November, the prices of upstream raw materials continued to decline, and under the pressure of weak raw material costs, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price continued to decline weakly in the first half of the year, falling overall to the range of 2100-2300 yuan/ton.

In the middle of the month, the overall price of upstream raw materials fluctuated and stabilized, and the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite continued to stabilize and move forward. Starting from mid to late October, the price of soda ash has bottomed out and rebounded significantly, while the price of sulfur has continued to rise. The cost of raw materials has rebounded significantly, and the inventory of manufacturers has continued to decline. Under the downstream buying mentality, the willingness to stock up has increased significantly, and the cost of raw materials has continued to rise. Supported by the rebound in downstream demand, the price of sodium metabisulfite in the domestic market has continued to rise.

In November, domestic soda ash prices bottomed out and rebounded, rising by 3.25% within the month. Sulfur prices continued to rise, rising by 13.07% within the month. Upstream raw material prices continued to rise, and rising costs will further support the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that with the dual support of cost and demand, it is expected that there is still some room for a rebound in the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price in November.