According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1200.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1297.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%. The current price has increased by 1.48% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, and this week the market continues to decline slightly. As of April 11th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1200 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has narrowly declined, with weak cost support. The operating rate of mainstream downstream plate factories is expected to decline, and the support for formaldehyde production is weak. The formaldehyde market has mainly slightly decreased.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has seen a narrow decline. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to continue operating at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature has risen, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term cooperative replenishment, and replenish warehouses according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term thermal coal market will maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

The recent fluctuations in raw material methanol prices are mainly due to the accumulation of formaldehyde inventory. Downstream panel factories have lowered their operating rates as the temperature warms up. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Society predict that the recent decline in formaldehyde prices in Shandong will be the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 7th, the average quoted price of polyethylene glycol 400 by enterprises is 7550.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Since April, the polyethylene glycol market has continued to operate steadily. The cost face has a significant impact on the polyethylene glycol market. Recently, upstream ethylene oxide has been operating at a high level, and the cost face is still supported by the polyethylene glycol market. The downstream demand for polyethylene glycol is widely used, and the overall performance of the demand side is relatively stable, with a focus on following up on rigid demand. The supply and demand side is generally supported by the market.

Cost side:

Upstream ethylene oxide: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on April 5th, the reference price of ethylene oxide was 7000.00, which was unchanged from April 1st. Recently, the ethylene oxide market has been operating at a high level, with cost support and supply reduction in some regions, supporting the mentality of enterprises to raise prices, and providing strong support for the polyethylene glycol market.

Upstream ethylene glycol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of ethylene glycol on April 5th was 4520.83, an increase of 0.17% compared to April 1st (4513.33), which provides sufficient support for the polyethylene glycol market.

According to polyethylene glycol analysts from Business Society, the short-term high cost support is stable, and the overall downstream demand may still continue to be in high demand. Business owners tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude with the market, and it is expected that the polyethylene glycol market will remain stable in the short term. More attention should be paid to the trend of upstream ethylene oxide.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7310.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On the weekend, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7270.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. The current price has decreased by 0.82% month on month, and has dropped by 18.68% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been mainly volatile and consolidating in the past two months, with a slight decline this week. The domestic market price of potassium chloride is at a relatively high level, and cost support is still acceptable. However, the transaction volume in the potassium carbonate market is light, and traders mainly ship at low prices, resulting in a volatile and weak market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7100-7300 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market for potassium chloride and potassium chloride has declined. The domestic potassium chloride market is in a slow downward trend, with traders mainly shipping at low prices, and port shipments are still acceptable. Currently, the price of 62% white potassium is mostly around 2300 yuan/ton. In mid to early April, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand is average, industrial demand weakens, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market has been at a high and firm price, but the market is in a slightly stagnant trading state, with poor sales of potassium carbonate. It is expected that the potassium carbonate market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term. The long-term market still needs to be watched.

Domestic sodium metabisulfite price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite continued to decline weakly in March 2024. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite on March 1st was 2316.67 yuan/ton, and on March 29th it was 2150.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of% within the month.

Due to the significant decline in upstream raw material prices, domestic sodium metabisulfite production enterprises significantly lowered their factory prices in March, driving a significant decline in the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price. As upstream raw material prices continue to decline, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price continues to be suppressed and lowered to around 2150 yuan/ton.

In March, domestic soda ash prices continued to be weak, falling by 11.42% within the month, while sulfur prices slightly rebounded, rising by 4.22% within the month. Overall, the cost of raw materials for sodium metabisulfite is showing a downward trend, and the continuous decline in costs will further suppress the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that raw material costs continue to be weak, and downstream trading entities are cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to be under pressure in April, with a moderate to weak trend.

This week, the price range of butyl acrylate is mainly organized. As of April 1st, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9532 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton compared to last week (9520 yuan/ton). The prices in the East China market are between 9300-9350 yuan/ton, the North China market is between 9350-9550 yuan/ton, and the South China market is between 9450-9650 yuan/ton. Mainstream production enterprises have weak and stable quotations, market holders are negotiating actual price reductions, and downstream buyers are buying on dips as needed.

In terms of cost:

The raw material n-butanol is experiencing an increase, with a slight decrease in production capacity utilization. Factories and holders are keeping prices low. As of April 1st, the ex factory reference price in Shandong region is 7916.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32% compared to last week (7733 yuan/ton). The supply of goods at low-end prices in the market has decreased, with a focus on high-end operations. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and downstream inquiries are active.

The market situation of raw material acrylic acid is on the rise. Upstream propylene rebounded after falling, with average cost support. The supply side of the acrylic acid market continued to be positive, supporting suppliers to support the market. Holders saw no pressure on sales, and bullish sentiment increased. The focus of the offer increased significantly, with the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe being 6500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.42% compared to the beginning of last month (6225.00 yuan/ton). Some acrylic acid factories in Shandong region have resumed operation, with no pressure on short-term factory inventory and sales, and little fluctuation in supply. It is expected that the domestic acrylic acid market will maintain a stable price operation.

In terms of supply and demand:

Since March, the downstream adhesive tape mother coil has released new production capacity in the first quarter, causing a slow increase in supply pressure, while demand has decreased compared to the same period last year. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, market prices have declined. However, production enterprises have considered cost pressure and negative gross profit, resulting in a slower decline in market prices. The acrylic acid lotion factory mainly consumes contracts, and the spot purchase is mainly for small orders, and the market negotiation area is mainly arranged.

Overall

There is not much change in the short-term raw material market, and cost support still exists. The strong price of n-butanol may to some extent drive a warming mentality in the butyl acrylate market. Downstream may seek to replenish positions at low prices, while upstream and downstream continue to play games. It is expected that the range of butyl acrylate will be mainly consolidated in the near future.