According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, supported by the continuous increase in raw material costs, the price of sodium metabisulfite in China has recently rebounded significantly. On September 5th, the average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite was 2550.00 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 28.57% within 10 days, and a significant increase of 36.61% from the low point of the year.

Starting from mid to late August, the price of domestic soda ash rebounded significantly, rising by 41.26% within the month, while the price of sulfur rose by 30.08% within the month. Upstream raw material prices also increased significantly. In addition, the overall inventory of domestic sodium metabisulfite enterprises was low, and downstream replenishment was more active after the raw material cost increased. Supported by both cost and demand, domestic sodium metabisulfite enterprises successively raised their factory prices in late August, Drive a significant rebound in the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

Entering September, the domestic soda ash price continued to be relatively strong. As of September 5th, the soda ash price increased by 1.37%, while the sulfur price increased by 3.55%. The continued strong operation of upstream raw material prices will further support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, there is still some room for a rebound in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market has been on the rise this month. On August 31st, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 10566 yuan/ton, mainly due to the rebound in the coal tar market, which provided impetus for the rebound in the carbon black market. The new single price of carbon black has significantly increased.

Cost side: In terms of raw materials, at the beginning of this month, coal tar prices rose, while carbon black prices continued to rise driven by costs. In mid month, coal tar prices peaked and declined. Entering the last week of August, downstream buying sentiment significantly rebounded, and there were some positive factors on the market. The atmosphere of the coal tar market has warmed slightly, with prices relatively stable and slightly upward. At present, coke companies have a strong enthusiasm for price increases, and the coal tar market atmosphere is good. The cost support for carbon black is still acceptable.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and recently, there have been carbon black manufacturers in Shandong and Shanxi stopping or reducing production. Currently, the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is not high.

In terms of terminals, the operating level of downstream enterprises is relatively good. In terms of demand, the tire industry in the downstream main market has shown stable performance. With strong support from export orders, the tire industry has been operating at a high level recently. The strong demand in the tire industry has provided strong support for the upward trend of carbon black.

Overall, there are both positive and negative factors in the current market. It is expected to enter the peak season of traditional demand for gold, silver, and other metals. It is expected that the short-term carbon black market will be stronger, and the future trend will focus on downstream demand.

In late August (8.21-8.31), the market for chloroform rose. According to data from Business Society, as of August 31st, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2245 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.25% from 2000 yuan/ton on August 21st. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine continue to rise, while the cost of trichloromethane continues to support; Individual devices have a short shutdown, and the supply of trichloromethane fluctuates slightly; Downstream demand is weak, the market transaction atmosphere is flat, and the price of chloroform is basically stable.

In late August (8.21-8.31), the domestic methane chloride production was basically normal, with an overall production rate of around 75%.

In late August (8.21-8.31), the price of raw material methanol remained high, while the price of liquid chlorine continued to rise, and the cost center of trichloromethane increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2510 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55% from 2448 yuan/ton on August 21st. As of August 31st, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong Province has significantly increased from 100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with costs supported by trichloromethane.

The overall low operating level of refrigerant R22 is stable, with the main demand for support for trichloromethane. However, in 2023, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and the overall demand for support for trichloromethane will weaken in the medium to long term.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, supported by cost and demand.

Price trend chart of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite significantly rebounded in August. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite on August 1st was 1866.67 yuan/ton, and on August 31st it was 2250.00 yuan/ton, with a significant increase of 20.54% during the month.

In August, upstream raw material prices continued to rise, supported by rising raw material costs. Domestic sodium metabisulfite manufacturers have successively raised the factory price of sodium metabisulfite, driving a significant rebound in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite. Raw material costs have rapidly increased, and the inventory of sodium metabisulfite is relatively low. After the price increase, downstream stocking willingness has become stronger, and supported by costs and demand, some companies’ quotations have increased to around 2600 yuan/ton at the end of the month.

In August, the price of domestic soda ash increased significantly, with a 41.26% increase within the month. The price of sulfur increased significantly, with a 30.08% increase within the month. The significant increase in raw material costs will further support the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, there is still some room for upward movement in the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price in September.

The price of ortho xylene stabilized after rising in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 30th, the price of ortho xylene was 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.65% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to last weekend, the price has increased by 8.43% to 8300 yuan/ton. The price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell, while the cost of adjacent xylene stopped rising and fell; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell, and the demand for ortho benzene weakened. The cost decreased, and the price of ortho xylene stabilized after rising in August.

The raw material mixed xylene market rose first and then fell in August

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of August 30th, the price of mixed xylene was 8380 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton or 2.44% compared to the price of 8180 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month. In August, crude oil showed a trend of rising and falling, with prices of naphtha and mixed xylene rising first and then falling. Cost support was not there, and downstream buying enthusiasm weakened. The market’s upward momentum was weak, and mixed xylene prices fell from high levels. The cost of raw materials has decreased, and the market for ortho xylene has declined.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market stops rising and falls

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of August 30th, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58% compared to the price of 8550 yuan/ton on August 1st. In August, the market for phthalic anhydride remained stagnant, and the price of phthalic anhydride stopped rising and fell. The decline in the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride was bearish for ortho phthalic anhydride, and plasticizer enterprises started operating at a low level. The demand for phthalic anhydride was weak, and ortho xylene demand weakened, increasing the downward pressure on ortho xylene.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s adjacent xylene data believe that in terms of costs, the high crude oil prices in August fell, while the prices of naphtha and mixed xylene first rose and then fell, and the raw material costs of adjacent xylene decreased; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizers are operating at a low level, demand for phthalic anhydride is weak, the market for phthalic anhydride is stagnant, and demand for ortho benzene is weakening. In the future, the cost of ortho benzene has decreased and demand is weak, while the rise of ortho xylene is weak. It is expected that ortho benzene prices will become weak and stable in the future.

The market situation of butadiene rubber rose in August. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.49% compared to 10940 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise, and the cost support for butadiene rubber continues to strengthen; The construction of downstream tire factories in August has slightly increased compared to July, which requires support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; In August, the factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina butadiene rubber increased. As of August 28th, the factory prices of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company Daqing butadiene rubber were at 11500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer range of domestic butadiene rubber was between 11500 and 12000 yuan/ton.

Cost side: The price of butadiene increased significantly in July, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber strengthened significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of butadiene was 7618 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.80% from 7201 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In August, the natural rubber market fluctuated in a narrow range, and as the price difference with butadiene rubber narrowed, Tianjiao lacked support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price was at 11940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from 12010 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point during the cycle was 11764 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The tire operating rate fluctuated slightly in August, with rubber as the main support. It is understood that as of late August 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that raw material prices have significantly increased, and supply pressure has slightly increased in the later stage. Currently, downstream construction is supporting the rubber industry, and the performance of the butadiene rubber industry chain in August is stable, with strong support. It is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will mainly operate at a high level in the short term.

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of metal silicon continued to rise, and the northwest large factory further increased. It is understood that due to the obvious effect of inventory removal in the early stage, the northwest large factory has raised its quotation twice this week, and the price has accumulated an increase of 300 yuan/ton during the week, with some small and medium-sized factories following suit. However, there has been no significant improvement on the demand side, and metal silicon lacks substantial upward momentum. The futures market, SI2310, saw a weekly increase or decrease of+1.96% and closed at 13795 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 28th are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 14400-14500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14300-14400 yuan/ton, with an average of 14350 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 14500-14600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14000-14200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14100 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 14800-14900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14850 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

As of August 24th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 372, with an overall furnace opening rate of 51.03%, an increase of 22 units compared to the previous month. This week, the supply of metal silicon has increased, and there is still a shortage of spot supply in some specifications. The operating rate of silicon factories in Yunnan region has remained high and stable, while in Sichuan region, the operating rate has returned to nearly 70%. Most factories mainly produce 421 #. There is an increase in production in Xinjiang region, but a large factory has not resumed production yet.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to rebound, with the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar grade maintained at 70-85000 yuan/ton. With the release of new production capacity for polycrystalline silicon, many mills are facing difficulties in purchasing 99 # silicon, resulting in an increase in prices.

The organic silicon DMC market is operating weakly this week, with a market price reference of 13460 yuan/ton. The individual factory has profit potential, and the situation of production reduction and shutdown for maintenance is expected to recover.

The aluminum alloy market is operating steadily, with the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 being 19700 yuan/ton. The operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry is basically stable.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, this week’s strong operation of metal silicon is mainly driven by the increase in prices by major factories in Xinjiang. Currently, the demand for metal silicon in polycrystalline silicon is expected to be good. However, there are still concerns about oversupply in the silicon market. Although the short-term market sentiment has improved, it depends on the supply and demand situation in the market. It is expected that the short-term silicon price will remain stable and tend to be strong.

Price trend chart of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite continued to rise this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1966.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 1983.33 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.85%.

Supported by the continuous upward trend in raw material prices, some enterprises have slightly increased the factory price of sodium metabisulfite this week. The overall price range of domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market is between 1900 and 2300 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 1950 to 2100 yuan/ton. The cost of raw materials has increased, the inventory of enterprises is low, and the overall supply of sodium metabisulfite market is tight. Enterprises mainly complete old customer orders. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of August 25th, the price of soda ash has increased by 17.48% during the month, while the price of sulfur has increased by 25.39%. The cost of raw materials has continued to rise, and the price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to rise in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to rebound in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price has significantly increased this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3980 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.43% compared to the beginning of the week price of 3540 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.13%.

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market has increased, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices has been stable. Recently, the supply of goods on site has been normal. Due to reduced rainy weather, downstream procurement has increased, and the situation of on-site sales has improved. The price trend of ammonium nitrate market has increased. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has improved, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased. The demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizers has been average, while the procurement of domestic downstream civil explosive industries is normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have started operating normally, and the price of ammonium nitrate has recently increased significantly. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are between 5200-5300 yuan/ton, Shandong region is between 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is between 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

The price of concentrated nitric acid in China has slightly increased this week, with an average price of 1946.67 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 0.17% compared to the price of 1943.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2000 to 2100 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. At present, there is little change in the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market, with costs maintaining. The supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market volume is average, and industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see. The prices of nitric acid on the market have slightly increased, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate market has increased.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has increased this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 3400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.99% compared to the price of 3366.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market has slightly increased, mainly due to little change in supply in the main production areas, and some units are still in shutdown, with normal supply expectations. The prices of large factories in Shandong, Hubei, Hebei and other regions have slightly increased. On the demand side, the current agricultural demand is moderate, with stable domestic and export demand for compound fertilizers and reduced inventory from manufacturers, which provides a certain positive support for the liquid ammonia market. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3400-3500 yuan/ton. The rise in upstream liquid ammonia prices has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has significantly increased.

Recently, the demand situation in the downstream civilian explosive industry has been normal, with a slight increase in demand for nitro compound fertilizers. The trend of nitric acid prices is mainly stable, while the price of liquid ammonia has recently increased slightly. The spot supply of ammonium nitrate is relatively normal, and ammonium nitrate analysts from Business Society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate is mainly stable in the short term.

In mid to early August, domestic adipic acid showed a weak upward trend. With a peak at the beginning of the month, the market gradually returned to rationality and prices showed a downward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 21, the highest level of adipic acid has dropped from 9800 to 9500 yuan/ton. The focus of market trading has gradually shifted downwards. At present, the market quotation range for adipic acid is between 9400 to 9500 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, maintain a favorable withdrawal from the raw material end and maintain a weak balance between supply and demand.

Cost side: Rising raw material prices are weak and falling from high levels

In August, crude oil continued to hover at a high level, providing a boost to the entire domestic chemical market. However, the upward trend of pure benzene prices was weak, with the main slowdown in the upward trend. The quotation of the main refinery has been partially lowered, and the supply side has shown a large volume of goods arriving at the port, resulting in a backlog of goods and supply pressure starting to emerge. The price of cyclohexanone has fallen from a high level, leading to market volatility and further pressure on supply and demand. It may not perform well in the later stage. From a cost perspective, the benefits of upstream raw material costs are gradually being exhausted.

Supply side: Enterprise equipment starts normally and supply is loose

From the perspective of market supply: In terms of equipment, the production of adipic acid has shown an upward trend this month, from 60% at the beginning of the month to 70% at present. Although the main manufacturers have mainly raised prices, prices have not been adjusted last week, and there may be expectations of price reductions in the future due to inventory pressure. The main reason is weak demand, and the manufacturer’s shipping speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of positive guidance on the supply side.

On the demand side: Demand remains weak and there is not much room for growth

Adipic acid is relatively weak downstream. The terminal procurement just needs support, and there are relatively few orders. Taking PA66 as an example, the long-term market has maintained a weak trend. Although market prices rebounded in August, the strength is limited compared to the previous decline, and the market is still hovering at a low point. The short-term slight increase only comes from the temporary shortage of supply caused by the shutdown of enterprise equipment. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the increase and decrease in PA66 since August has been 1.83%. At present, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang region is around 18500 yuan/ton. In addition, the sluggish market performance of caprolactam and TPU in other downstream fields, as well as weak demand, is an important reason for constraining the fundamental improvement of adipic acid.

Future prospects

Business Society believes that there are still macro factors affecting the cost of crude oil in the near future. A stronger US dollar will continue to suppress oil prices, but supply shortages will also keep the oil market high. In the short term, high crude oil prices are mainly volatile. Pure benzene and cyclohexanone may experience a weak trend in the later stage, and the cost side benefits will continue to fade. The supply and demand sides have maintained a relative balance in the near future, and later equipment maintenance may be a hedge against weak demand. Overall, it is expected that adipic acid will continue to undergo a narrow adjustment in late August.