In mid to early August, domestic adipic acid showed a weak upward trend. With a peak at the beginning of the month, the market gradually returned to rationality and prices showed a downward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 21, the highest level of adipic acid has dropped from 9800 to 9500 yuan/ton. The focus of market trading has gradually shifted downwards. At present, the market quotation range for adipic acid is between 9400 to 9500 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, maintain a favorable withdrawal from the raw material end and maintain a weak balance between supply and demand.

Cost side: Rising raw material prices are weak and falling from high levels

In August, crude oil continued to hover at a high level, providing a boost to the entire domestic chemical market. However, the upward trend of pure benzene prices was weak, with the main slowdown in the upward trend. The quotation of the main refinery has been partially lowered, and the supply side has shown a large volume of goods arriving at the port, resulting in a backlog of goods and supply pressure starting to emerge. The price of cyclohexanone has fallen from a high level, leading to market volatility and further pressure on supply and demand. It may not perform well in the later stage. From a cost perspective, the benefits of upstream raw material costs are gradually being exhausted.

Supply side: Enterprise equipment starts normally and supply is loose

From the perspective of market supply: In terms of equipment, the production of adipic acid has shown an upward trend this month, from 60% at the beginning of the month to 70% at present. Although the main manufacturers have mainly raised prices, prices have not been adjusted last week, and there may be expectations of price reductions in the future due to inventory pressure. The main reason is weak demand, and the manufacturer’s shipping speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of positive guidance on the supply side.

On the demand side: Demand remains weak and there is not much room for growth

Adipic acid is relatively weak downstream. The terminal procurement just needs support, and there are relatively few orders. Taking PA66 as an example, the long-term market has maintained a weak trend. Although market prices rebounded in August, the strength is limited compared to the previous decline, and the market is still hovering at a low point. The short-term slight increase only comes from the temporary shortage of supply caused by the shutdown of enterprise equipment. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the increase and decrease in PA66 since August has been 1.83%. At present, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang region is around 18500 yuan/ton. In addition, the sluggish market performance of caprolactam and TPU in other downstream fields, as well as weak demand, is an important reason for constraining the fundamental improvement of adipic acid.

Future prospects

Business Society believes that there are still macro factors affecting the cost of crude oil in the near future. A stronger US dollar will continue to suppress oil prices, but supply shortages will also keep the oil market high. In the short term, high crude oil prices are mainly volatile. Pure benzene and cyclohexanone may experience a weak trend in the later stage, and the cost side benefits will continue to fade. The supply and demand sides have maintained a relative balance in the near future, and later equipment maintenance may be a hedge against weak demand. Overall, it is expected that adipic acid will continue to undergo a narrow adjustment in late August.

Price trend chart of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite is relatively strong this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week is 1950.00 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend is 1966.67 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.85%.

In mid August, upstream raw material prices continued to be relatively strong, supported by higher raw material costs. This week, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price slightly strengthened, with the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range of 1900-2300 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 1900-2100 yuan/ton. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of August 18th, the price of soda ash has increased by 3.88% within the month, while the price of sulfur has increased by 22.27%. The continued strong operation of raw material costs will further support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to be stable, medium to strong in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 13th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 284000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73% compared to last Monday (August 7th).

This week (8.7-8.13), the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market fell. Recently, the lithium ore market has been operating weakly and steadily, with lithium carbonate prices showing a weak downward trend, weak cost support, flat downstream demand, low enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement, and market transactions mainly based on demand. Holders are actively shipping, resulting in a weak market situation.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on August 11th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 248000.00, a decrease of 9.49% compared to August 1st (274000.00).

Analysts from Business Society Lithium Hydroxide believe that the current market is not supported by positive news, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may continue to operate in a weak manner. More attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Product name: Titanium dioxide powder

Latest price on August 14th: 16000 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: The titanium dioxide market remained strong on August 14th. Internationally, foreign trade orders are in good condition. Domestic aspect; The demand in the end market has rebounded, and downstream demand for titanium dioxide has improved. Currently, the market trading sentiment is active. The titanium dioxide market has low inventory, and manufacturers have a large number of orders in hand. They mainly place early orders, resulting in tight stock. Up to now, most domestic quotations for rutile titanium dioxide are between 15600-17200 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 13500 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the short term, the titanium dioxide market will operate steadily and upward.

Price trend chart of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite remained stable and advanced this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1933.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 1933.33 yuan/ton, indicating overall stability and progress.

Supported by a slight rebound in raw material costs, the overall domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable and advanced this week. The domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range this week was 1900 to 2300 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. The inventory of enterprises is relatively low, mainly to complete orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of August 11th, domestic soda ash prices have continued to rise, rising 3.01% within the month. Sulfur prices have rebounded significantly, rising 14.06% within the month. The continued rise in raw material costs will further support the domestic sodium metabisulfite market prices in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that, supported by the continuous rise in raw material costs, there is still some room for a rebound in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene continued to rise this week (7.31-8.7). On July 31st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7860 yuan/ton, while on August 7th, the benchmark price was 8030.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16%.

International crude oil futures continued to rise on Friday. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 09 contract was $82.82 per barrel, up 2.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract 10 was $86.24 per barrel, up 2.02%. There are reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend their independent production reduction period until September, or even longer, as supply tightening is expected to intensify.

Downstream: The domestic TDI market is undergoing strong consolidation and operation. According to market news, the Mitsui TDI device in Japan was recently shut down due to the impact of a typhoon, and the DI device of a large factory in North China in China experienced a malfunction and dropped to 50% operation. The supplier’s news is positive, and the bullish intention in the trade market has increased. The high prices quoted by the holders have been firm. Downstream buyers follow up on the demand for high priced goods, and the on-site supply is strong. In the short term, the TDI market is operating stronger, so we will pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation in the future.

In terms of downstream PX, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal, and PX external market prices remain high due to the rise of crude oil. As of the 3rd, the closing prices in Asia are 1021-1023 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1046-1048 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

The trend of gasoline prices is also rising, on the one hand, the demand is improving to support the oil market. The peak summer driving season in the United States is still playing a role, with peak travel leading to positive fuel consumption. In addition, there is hope for the future of Chinese demand, and China has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures to support fuel consumption. On the other hand, international crude oil prices continue to rise, and the cost of finished oil forms strong support. International crude oil futures continued to rise on Friday. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 09 contract was $82.82 per barrel, up 2.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract 10 was $86.24 per barrel, up 2.02%.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices will continue to operate at high levels in the short term, with support for the cost of toluene; In the short term, the shortage of toluene supply will continue, driving the high level operation of toluene; Although the supply side may have eased in August, the downstream product oil of toluene is expected to continue to operate at a high level, providing support for toluene; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will mainly operate at a high level in August.

Price trend of domestic Sodium metabisulfite

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic Sodium metabisulfite rebounded from the bottom this week. The average price of industrial Sodium metabisulfite was 1866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 1933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 3.57% in the week.

Supported by the continuous rising cost of raw materials, in August, the manufacturer successively raised the ex factory price, driving the domestic industrial Sodium metabisulfite market price to the bottom of the traditional style at the beginning of the month. This week, the domestic industrial Sodium metabisulfite ranged from 1850 to 2300 yuan/ton, and most prices were concentrated around 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

In July, the price of domestic soda ash rose by 5.1%, and the price of sulfur rose by 18.69%. The rising cost of raw materials strongly supported the bottoming of domestic Sodium metabisulfite. As of August 4, the price of soda ash continued to rise, rising by 2.23% in the month, and the price of sulfur was relatively strong, rising by 3.91% in the month. The continued rising cost of raw materials will further support the market price of Sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the domestic market price of Sodium metabisulfite still has some room to rise in the short term under the dual support of cost and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 28, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6640 yuan/ton, which was 0.61% higher than the reference average price of 6600 yuan/ton on July 24.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 28th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6433 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6433 yuan/ton on June 24th. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market price has slightly increased this week. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is strong, with some support for costs. However, the downstream still maintains a wait-and-see attitude, with immediate replenishment being the main focus, and the market trading atmosphere is average. As of July 28, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 6700 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 6700-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5700-7300 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus has been strong this week, and the market spot is slightly tight. It is difficult to find low-priced sources of goods on the market, and the atmosphere of new order negotiations is relatively strong. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is around 23500-23700 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the recent narrow adjustment in phosphoric acid prices has resulted in acceptable support for raw materials. However, downstream demand performance is average, with downstream cautious wait-and-see as the main focus. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will slightly adjust and operate in the short term.

Price trend of domestic Sodium metabisulfite

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic price of Sodium metabisulfite was slightly weak in July, and then the overall weakness became stable. The average price of industrial Sodium metabisulfite was 1966.67 yuan/ton on July 1, 1866.67 yuan/ton on July 31, down 5.08% in the month.

Pressed by the sharp decline in the price of upstream raw materials, the manufacturer slightly lowered the ex factory price in July, driving the price of domestic Sodium metabisulfite market to further decline. In the first ten days, the mainstream price of domestic industrial Sodium metabisulfite market fell to around 1800-1900 yuan/ton as a whole. Since the middle of the year, the price of domestic soda ash has rebounded slightly, the price of sulfur has rebounded from the bottom, the cost of raw materials has stopped falling and rebounded, and the domestic Sodium metabisulfite has moved forward steadily as a whole.

In July, the price of domestic calcined soda rose slightly, rising 5.1% in the month, and the price of calcined soda rose significantly, rising 18.69% in the month. The rebound of raw material cost will strongly support the price of domestic Sodium metabisulfite market in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the cost of raw materials has stopped falling and rebounded, and downstream trade entities are more willing to stock up. Supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the overall price of domestic Sodium metabisulfite market will rebound in August.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price increase in the domestic heavy rare earth market has slowed down. On July 27th, the rare earth index was 463 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 54.02% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 70.85% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price increase of Dysprosium(III) oxide, dysprosium iron alloy and dysprosium metal in China is limited. As of the 28th, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.31 million yuan/ton, up 0.87% this week; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.215 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.91% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.93 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.03% this week; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly fluctuating, with the domestic price of terbium oxide being 7.175 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium being 9.15 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price increase in the heavy rare earth market has slowed down, the blockade in Myanmar has been lifted, and the willingness of shippers to ship has significantly increased. In addition, the news of Vietnam’s rare earth production increase recently has had a certain impact on the psychology of merchants. Vietnam’s rare earth reserves are the second in the world, but the production is not outstanding. The news of production increase has had a certain impact on the rare earth industry. In terms of domestic orders, the long-term order submission procurement has come to an end, and the intention of heavy rare earth holding merchants to ship has increased. In addition, the supply of heavy rare earth minerals from Southeast Asia has increased, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the rare earth market remains. The bearish factors have slowed down the rise of heavy rare earth in China.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 9.9% and 12.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.8% and 35.2%, respectively. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.788 million and 3.747 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 42.4% and 44.1%, respectively. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the deployment of new energy vehicles to rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing rural consumption potential and increasing sales of new energy vehicles. The increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths, and the heavy rare earth market still has support.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data for June was 5008.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; From January to June 2023, a total of 26236.1 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, supporting the domestic rare earth market prices accordingly.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises has increased, but downstream demand has not actually improved. It is expected that the market price of heavy rare earth will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving machines, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.