This week, the spot tin market price (3.10-3.17) fluctuated in the market, and the overall downward trend. The average price in the domestic market was 187010 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 183910 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.66% for the week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. From the above figure, it can be seen that after November 2022, due to macro factors, tin prices have generally been dominant, with prices beginning to decline since February.

In terms of the futures market, Lunxi experienced a wide range of fluctuations this week. During the current cycle, there were many negative and positive market macro factors, and the overall trend of the week was somewhat volatile. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar index fell, and the metal market fluctuated in a narrow range. In the middle and later stages of the week, the banking crisis and credit crisis fermented, and the metal market declined. Tin prices rebounded again over the weekend as expectations for US monetary policy eased.

From the perspective of supply and demand, recent changes in tin have been limited, and it still shows a weak pattern of supply and demand. In terms of supply, recent processing costs have been weak, but the smelter has been operating steadily, and the overall tin supply has not changed much compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, there is still no significant improvement, and market expectations are generally weak. The recent fluctuations in tin prices have mainly followed the macro trend, with inventory declining significantly this week. Low inventory has boosted tin prices significantly on Friday. In the future, the tin market remains weak and volatile, and it is necessary to focus on the actual downstream demand and the impact of inventory changes on market sentiment.

The base metal index stood at 1191 points on March 18, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.30% from its cycle high of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 85.51% from its low of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring by the Business News Agency, in the 11th week of 2023 (3.13-3.17), there were five commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose on a month-on-month basis. The top three commodities that rose were titanium concentrate (3.19%), silver (2.60%), and gold (1.84%). There are 17 commodities with a year-on-year decrease, and 5 commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 6.29%), neodymium oxide (- 6.20%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 5.91%). This week’s average rise and fall was -1.69%.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of March 20th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5475 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand were balanced, and the focus of negotiations was stable.

The DMF trend is stable and the focus of negotiations is stable. Currently, the mainstream price range is around 5400.00 yuan/ton. Currently, the operating rate is mainly stable, the supply side is normal, and downstream purchases are made on demand. There is no obvious desire to stock up, and the manufacturer gives up profits and takes orders.

Chemical index: On March 19th, the chemical index stood at 918 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 53.51% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

DMF analysts from Business Agency believe that the DMF market will maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the beginning of this week was 3950 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the end of this week was 3950 yuan/ton, which was stable.

The domestic potassium sulfate market trend is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the processing type Mannheim potassium sulfate unit remains at 45%, with no significant fluctuations for the time being. The continuous decline in the price of potassium chloride has a certain impact on the production costs of manufacturers. However, driven by the upside down of by-product hydrochloric acid and a slight increase in the price of sulfuric acid, the current sales price of potassium sulfate is basically near the cost line of manufacturers. Currently, the factory price of 52% processed Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly 3900-4000 yuan/ton, and the price in some regions is still lower than the low-end quotation. The actual transaction is mainly negotiated through single negotiation.

The supply of potash fertilizer in the domestic market has continued to increase, with the supply of Laos’ white potassium in the port. The supply of China Europe Express is also increasing, with the arrival volume of nearly 100000 tons in half a month. Border trade is dominated by 62% white powder oversupply, which reflects a slight shortage of goods, but the overall supply is sufficient.

Prediction: The trend of potassium sulfate is relatively stable, and processing manufacturers are basically keeping at the cost edge. It is expected that the market price may be dominated by a weak consolidation trend.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 10, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was 8866 yuan/ton. Compared with March 5, 2023 (the reference price of butanone was 8733 yuan/ton), the price increased by 133 yuan/ton, or 1.53%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that at the beginning of March, due to the loose support of the demand side, the domestic butanone market was generally weak. In this week (3.6-3.10), the domestic butanone market as a whole has seen a slight rise, and the power to support the upward focus of the butanone market is mainly from the support of supply and cost.

In terms of cost, the price of butanone raw materials is high and firm, and the support of butanone cost side is continuously strengthened. Therefore, the overall market of butanone is up slightly with the original.

In terms of supply, in the middle of this month, some butanone plants had shutdown and maintenance plans, and the overall operating rate of butanone was low. With the gradual digestion of the low price of butanone in stock, at present, the overall inventory of butanone in the field was low, and the tight supply side also supported the rise of butanone market.

Aftermarket analysis of butanone

At present, the downstream demand of butanone in the market is relatively calm, and the support given by the demand side is general. The butanone statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the market fluctuation is limited. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk list data of the Business Agency, the price of bromine was weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 30500 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the week was 28100 yuan/ton. The price fell 7.87%, down 49.97% year on year. The bromine commodity index on March 9 was 98.95, down 2.1 points from yesterday, down 59.64% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and up 67.94% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the bromine price continued to be weak. The price of bromine in Shandong is under pressure, and the downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries have not significantly increased in recent years. The demand is obviously bleak, and the shipments of bromine enterprises are not smooth. The production of bromine is sufficient, and the operators are pessimistic. The bromine and downstream flame retardant manufacturers intend to stabilize the price, but because of the high inventory, they still make more profits to ship.

In terms of raw materials: the domestic sulfur price was consolidated this week, with the average market price of 1163.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1223.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.58% and 5.16% year on year. At present, the shipment of sulfur refinery is stable, and the operators have a good mentality. Affected by the mentality of buying up and not buying down, it is expected that the sulfur market will continue to rise. Pay attention to the follow-up of the downstream.

According to the analysts of the Business News Agency, the price of bromine is weak in the near future. Although the price of sulfur in the upstream has risen, the demand of the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industry of bromine has followed up relatively slowly in the near future. The supply and demand of bromine is sufficient, and there is no good support. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term bromine price is weak, and the operation market is consolidated, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was stable this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4380 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 4380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.86%.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operate stably, the supply of goods on the site is normal in the near future, the situation of goods on the site is normal, the manufacturer’s inventory is not high, and the price of liquid ammonia upstream of the terminal drops slightly. In addition, the price of nitric acid drops, and the price of ammonium nitrate is stable temporarily. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the demand for downstream nitro-compound fertilizer is normal, and the demand for domestic downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started high, and the price of ammonium nitrate is still stable in the near future. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 5300-5400 yuan/ton, the mainstream of negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China declined. As of the 13th, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2450 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the price of 2483.33 yuan/ton on the 6th. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, and the goods in the field are in good condition. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the field has declined, and the price of raw material nitric acid has declined, which is bad for the ammonium nitrate market. The market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia fell this week. As of the 13th, the price of liquid ammonia was 4323.33 yuan/ton, down 2.26% from the price of 4423.33 yuan/ton on the 6th. The prices of main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui and Lianghu have declined slightly. Recently, many units have been restarted, and the amount of ammonia released has increased. The increase in supply has driven manufacturers to reduce the factory price. The price of large factories in Shandong has been reduced by about 100 yuan/ton. The decline of upstream liquid ammonia price has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has weakened, the market price of liquid ammonia has declined, the price of nitric acid has declined slightly, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate may fall slightly in the future.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic sodium metabisulfite price was stronger this week. On March 10, the average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite was 2416.67 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the average price of 2400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, down 9.94% from the same period last year.

In March, the domestic soda price remained stable as a whole, the sulfur price rose sharply, and the raw material cost rose slightly. Supported by this, the manufacturer slightly increased the ex-factory price of sodium metabisulfite, driving the ex-factory price of domestic sodium metabisulfite to rise slightly. This week, the market price range of domestic industrial sodium metabisulfite was 2400-2600 yuan/ton, and the overall inventory of enterprises was low, mainly to complete the orders of old customers.

As of March 10, the overall price of domestic soda ash remained stable, and the price of sulfur rose sharply, rising by 8.58% in the month. The continued rise in the price of raw materials will further support the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Aftermarket forecast

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to be strong in the short term under the support of cost and demand.

In February, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 28, the monthly decline of adipic acid was 5.48%, and the focus of market trading dropped significantly. At present, the market quotation range of adipic acid is 10200-10300 yuan/ton, about 500-700 yuan lower than the beginning of the previous month. The main reason is the increase in supply and the relatively low demand

Industrial chain

The figure above shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this month. The upstream pure benzene has maintained a fluctuating range, with a slight decline, while cyclohexanone has dropped by 1.56%. Downstream demand is sluggish, and the product trend has not changed significantly. PA66 remained in a relatively weak range.

Supply side: device restart supply increase

In terms of market supply, the overall operating rate of adipic acid continued to rise this month, and by the end of the month, the market had recovered from 50% at the beginning of the month to 6.5%. The main focus is the restart of Haile Shandong and Jiangsu units in the middle of the month; After the completion of single line maintenance of Taihua and Shenma, both lines have been put into operation, the supply has increased significantly this month, and the supply is expected to increase the negative market in the future.

Demand side: weak demand support

The rigid demand of adipic acid downstream is maintained, and the market buying is weak. It mainly focuses on digesting the inventory in the early stage. The inventory accumulation of enterprises puts the de-stocking on the agenda again. Downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and need to supplement orders sporadically to ensure normal startup demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business agency, PA66 rose and fell by 0% this month, and the market bottom lingered. At the end of the month, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 21000 yuan/ton. In addition, other sectors also performed poorly, with caprolactam mainly falling, TPU weak adjustment, and the game between supply and demand intensified.

Cost side: performance of pure benzene and cyclohexanone is weak

The high level of pure benzene fell after the festival, and the market did not go out of the obvious trend. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, pure benzene fell by 0.14% this month. The main reason is that domestic inventories and imports are sufficient, and the market is difficult to perform well under the pressure of supply. Near the weekend, the price of pure benzene in East China is in the range of 7000-7050 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexanone fell significantly, falling continuously for the past two months, with a decline of 1.56% this month. The cost side was negative.

Future prospects

According to the business association, the cost of crude oil is difficult to have a good expectation in the near future. It is expected that pure benzene and cyclohexanone will be suppressed by supply, and the cost of crude oil will be difficult to form a large positive. In addition, the supply side is also negative. Many units have been restarted this month, and there is still room for improvement in the late supply of adipic acid. The expected increase in supply is the biggest factor restricting the price. The demand side mainly follows up slowly, but it is difficult to digest the supply increment, and the market is expected to accumulate stocks. In comprehensive consideration, the price of adipic acid may still have downward space.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 3, 2023, the reference market price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 9566 yuan/ton. Compared with February 27 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 9433 yuan/ton), the price increased by 133 yuan/ton, or 1.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week (2.27-3.03), the overall domestic propylene glycol market rose slightly and then stabilized. At the beginning of this week, the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole rose slightly again, and the propylene glycol price of some factories with low prices in the early stage rose slightly, with an increase of about 200 yuan/ton. The quotations of other factories and suppliers were mainly stable, and the market as a whole entered a high consolidation stage. As the market price of propylene glycol continues to rise, downstream users are increasingly in a wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in purchasing and mainly deal with small orders. As of March 3, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 9500-9700 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the support for the high level movement of the propylene glycol market is mostly from the tight supply and inventory and the rising raw material market. The support provided by the downstream demand side of propylene glycol is relatively general. However, it is heard that some devices are planned to be shut down for maintenance in March. The overall increase in the on-site supply is not large, and the supply side support is still in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly be in consolidation and operation, with limited power for the sharp rise of the market, which is supported by the supply side, The probability of a sharp decline in the propylene glycol market is also small, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of aniline was relatively stable this month. The market price of aniline was 12100 yuan/ton on February 27 and 12100 yuan/ton on March 3, which was stable compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: the basic level of pure benzene continues to be weak, the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of pure benzene in the East China port decreased slightly, and the supply pressure eased. On Thursday (March 2), the price of pure benzene was 7150 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from last week and 1.46% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of domestic nitric acid was stable this week. The price was 2600 yuan/ton on February 27 and 2600 yuan/ton on February 3. The price was flat last week, up 2.82% from the same period last year.

Due to the tight spot supply of aniline in the northern region, the market was bullish, and the price rose continuously in the first half of the week. However, the downstream of the terminal is in the traditional off-season, and the demand for aniline is difficult to be significantly improved. With the favorable supply turning weak, aniline stabilizes and the wait-and-see increases.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

At present, the supply and demand side of the aniline market is temporarily stable, and there is no more good news in the market. It is expected that the aniline market may be stable in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline plants and the downstream pickup sentiment.