In February, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 28, the monthly decline of adipic acid was 5.48%, and the focus of market trading dropped significantly. At present, the market quotation range of adipic acid is 10200-10300 yuan/ton, about 500-700 yuan lower than the beginning of the previous month. The main reason is the increase in supply and the relatively low demand
Industrial chain
The figure above shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this month. The upstream pure benzene has maintained a fluctuating range, with a slight decline, while cyclohexanone has dropped by 1.56%. Downstream demand is sluggish, and the product trend has not changed significantly. PA66 remained in a relatively weak range.
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Supply side: device restart supply increase
In terms of market supply, the overall operating rate of adipic acid continued to rise this month, and by the end of the month, the market had recovered from 50% at the beginning of the month to 6.5%. The main focus is the restart of Haile Shandong and Jiangsu units in the middle of the month; After the completion of single line maintenance of Taihua and Shenma, both lines have been put into operation, the supply has increased significantly this month, and the supply is expected to increase the negative market in the future.
Demand side: weak demand support
The rigid demand of adipic acid downstream is maintained, and the market buying is weak. It mainly focuses on digesting the inventory in the early stage. The inventory accumulation of enterprises puts the de-stocking on the agenda again. Downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and need to supplement orders sporadically to ensure normal startup demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business agency, PA66 rose and fell by 0% this month, and the market bottom lingered. At the end of the month, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 21000 yuan/ton. In addition, other sectors also performed poorly, with caprolactam mainly falling, TPU weak adjustment, and the game between supply and demand intensified.
Cost side: performance of pure benzene and cyclohexanone is weak
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The high level of pure benzene fell after the festival, and the market did not go out of the obvious trend. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, pure benzene fell by 0.14% this month. The main reason is that domestic inventories and imports are sufficient, and the market is difficult to perform well under the pressure of supply. Near the weekend, the price of pure benzene in East China is in the range of 7000-7050 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexanone fell significantly, falling continuously for the past two months, with a decline of 1.56% this month. The cost side was negative.
Future prospects
According to the business association, the cost of crude oil is difficult to have a good expectation in the near future. It is expected that pure benzene and cyclohexanone will be suppressed by supply, and the cost of crude oil will be difficult to form a large positive. In addition, the supply side is also negative. Many units have been restarted this month, and there is still room for improvement in the late supply of adipic acid. The expected increase in supply is the biggest factor restricting the price. The demand side mainly follows up slowly, but it is difficult to digest the supply increment, and the market is expected to accumulate stocks. In comprehensive consideration, the price of adipic acid may still have downward space.
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