1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has risen for four consecutive times. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week is 7090 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend is 7330 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.38%, down 5.9% from 30 days ago.

As of November 11, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., November 4

Shandong, 6950-7050 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 6600-6800 yuan/ton

East China, 7050-7100 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation in the propylene (Shandong) market was 7300-7400 yuan/ton. During the price increase period, goods were delivered smoothly on the market, and downstream demand was the main demand. The market trading and investment atmosphere is fair, and the enterprise inventory is controllable. During the week, some units in Shandong stopped and the supply decreased, which was good for the rapid rise of the Shandong market. At the same time, downstream trading and investment were active. With the price rising many times, the atmosphere of downstream trading and investment began to weaken, and the market price stopped rising and stabilized on Friday.

Upstream: crude oil prices fell for three consecutive weeks this week. As of the end of November 10, WTI rose 0.64 to 86.47 dollars/barrel in December, up 0.74%; In January, Brent rose 1.02 to 93.67 dollars/barrel, up 1.10%. Although there was a rebound over the weekend, the decline was greater than the increase. The overall price of raw materials is weak, and the market supply of methanol increased due to the recovery of early maintenance devices and load reduction devices. However, in terms of demand, most of them were purchased on demand, and the price of methanol fell sharply due to the imbalance between supply and demand. Weak cost support, dragging down propylene prices.

Downstream: Some downstream products gave up their gains, and the n-butanol market started to fall back from a high point. This week, the gains were mainly digested. Polypropylene market is weak. Under the restriction of demand, the strengthening futures and rising costs have limited impact on it. Propylene oxide has little price fluctuation supported by propylene cost.

3、 Future market forecast

According to propylene analysts from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative, the contradiction between supply and demand brought about by the rising market this week will gradually become prominent, and the downstream will start to show a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, with weak cost support, it is expected that propylene will continue to rise in the later period, with little feasibility, mainly consolidation.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 4, the price of PET water bottle has been operating in a narrow and weak range. At present, the average price is 7166.00 yuan/ton, which is 1.65% lower than that of the same period last week, with a drop of about 100 yuan/ton. The overall market price is weak and downward. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable.

This week, the domestic PET price is narrow and weak, with the mainstream price at about 7200 yuan/ton. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the logistics is smooth, the supply side is normal, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the downstream readiness is general. At present, the mainstream price is about 7200 yuan/ton, with a small decline and weak operation.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On November 3, the rubber and plastic index was 670 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 36.79% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 26.89% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to PET analysts from the business community, the mainstream price of PET market is expected to be around 7200 yuan/ton in the short term, with a narrow range and weak operation.

The price of domestic fluorite continued to rise. As of July 7, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3200 yuan/ton, 12.06% higher than the price at the beginning of the year, 2855.56 yuan/ton, and 25.63% higher than the lowest price of 2547.22 yuan/ton at the beginning of April. Since April, the price has risen unilaterally, and is now at the highest point in the year.

The positive factors of fluorite price rise are as follows:

First: The shortage of raw ore supply drives the price of fluorite up

The operating rate of domestic supply side remains low, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral survey is still difficult. Mining enterprises are faced with increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient starting of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited starting of fluorite flotation, insufficient spot supply, serious epidemic in some regions, difficult transportation of fluorite, very tight supply of fluorite, and rising fluorite prices.

Second: The export volume of fluorite for parking of some overseas units increased significantly

From January to September 2022, the total export volume of fluorite with calcium fluoride content>97% will be 172100 tons, up 397.32% year on year. In September, the export volume of fluorite was 60000 tons, up 55% month on month and 110% year on year. The domestic acid grade fluorite has received more and more inquiries from international buyers, and the overseas mines in Canada and Mexico have stopped production. The export of fluorite has increased significantly, which has aggravated the shortage of domestic fluorite supply.

Third: The rapid development of new demand supports the price of fluorite

In addition to the well-known fluorine chemical industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy and semiconductors and other fields, the outlook of fluorite industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises are about to enter a seasonal shutdown period. In addition to the recent shortage of raw material fluorite ore supply, the refrigerant industry began to stock up in the fourth quarter. The new energy, semiconductor and new material industries developed rapidly, supporting the demand for fluorite for a long time. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that the fluorite market price may still have room to rise.

This week’s (10.31-11.7) nitrile rubber market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of nitrile rubber as of November 5 was 15425 yuan/ton, down 1.44% from 16650 yuan/ton last Monday. Downstream demand is weak, and the market offer is slightly higher. As of the 7th day, the mainstream of the domestic Lanhua nitrile N41 market was 14200~14600 yuan/ton; The mainstream report of Russian nitrile 2665 market is 14000~14300 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 reported 17700~18100 yuan/ton.

This week (10.31-11.7), the price of raw butadiene and acrylonitrile decreased, and the cost of nitrile rubber was differentiated. In addition, the downstream demand is weak, the merchants ship at low prices, and the market price of nitrile rubber drops. However, with the maintenance of Nandi’s nitrile device this week, the pressure on the supply side of nitrile has eased slightly, and the decline has slowed down in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 7, the price of butadiene was 7146 yuan/ton, down 6.02% from 7603 yuan/ton last Monday; As of November 7, the price of acrylonitrile was 11150 yuan/ton, up 2.39% from 10890 on Monday.

The load of domestic nitrile rubber plant decreased slightly, and the supply side pressure eased slightly in the short term. According to the business community, Zhenjiang Nandi’s 50000 t/a nitrile rubber package was parked this week, and it is planned to restart in the middle of November; Lanzhou Petrochemical 100000 t/a nitrile rubber plant operates normally; The 30000 t/a nitrile rubber plant of Nanjing Jinpu Insa Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. is in normal production; The load of 65000 t/a unit in Ningbo Shunze was raised to normal operation.

After the festival, the construction of nitrile rubber downstream is mainly stable. There are few new orders for nitrile enterprises, the market turnover is light, and the demand for nitrile rubber is insufficient.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the current cost of NBR is differentiated, the demand side is insufficient, and the supply side is slightly declining. It is expected that the NBR market will be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the beginning of this week is 3950 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate content 50 at the end of this week is 3950 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable.

At present, the sales price of 60% crystals of potassium sulfate manufacturers in the market is mostly 3500-3800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. In terms of potassium import, the port has a certain amount of goods to supplement, and the port stock is also gradually rising, and the supply continues to be sufficient. The ex factory price of 60% potassium chloride powder imported from the port is more than 3500-3800 yuan/ton. The southern market is slightly special, and the price remains high. The price of 62% white potassium is 3600-3750 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles is more than 3600-3700 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is based on the order form.

The overall supply of goods in the domestic potash fertilizer market is large, the production of domestic potassium chloride manufacturers is normal, and the railway can ship normally, but the automobile transportation is limited. The import potassium ports still have new sources of goods, but the arrival of goods from border trade and China Europe railway has decreased. On the whole, the supply of potassium fertilizer is sufficient.

Forecast: The overall trend of domestic potash fertilizer market is still weak, and it is expected that the potash fertilizer market will still operate in a weak consolidation in the later period.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market of dichloromethane declined in October. As of October 31, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2950 yuan/ton, down 6.65% from 3160 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and up 2.97% from the monthly low of 2865 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the price of raw material methanol is low, and the cost support is weak; On the other hand, the construction of Jinling methane chloride plant reached a high level in the first half of October, and the supply of dichloromethane was loose. Under the pressure of cost and supply, the factory price of domestic dichloromethane fell in the early stage and rose slightly at the end of the month. The offer of merchants fluctuated with the factory price.

The supply of dichloromethane was loose in the first half of October, and the market supply was sufficient, and the price fell; At the end of the month, a number of enterprises began to reduce their load and park their cars. The supply side became tight and rebounded slightly at the end of the month.

The price of raw materials fell sharply, and the cost of dichloromethane dragged down the price. According to the business community, as of October 31, the spot price of methanol was 2757 yuan/ton, down 8.46% from 3012 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the supply side of methanol was abundant, the demand side did not improve, and the methanol market continued to fall. Local transportation is limited, and some enterprises have increased their inventories, which further aggravates the wait-and-see mood of traders.

In October, the third generation refrigerant R32 downstream of dichloromethane started at a low level. In addition, the thinner/coating industry started at a low level, with weak demand, and the price of dichloromethane fell.

Future forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the cost of dichloromethane is down, the demand is weak, but the supply is tight. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will continue to rebound slightly in the short term.

In October, the domestic ethanol market rose first and then fell, with a narrow range of shocks. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the price at the beginning and end of the month was 6762 yuan/ton, the maximum amplitude in the month was 0.92%, and the price rose 2.86% year on year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic ethanol market was in shock. After the National Day holiday, the downstream demand for ethanol was stable, and the starting load was not boosted. At the same time, the logistics recovered after the holiday, and the domestic ethanol market was dominated by normal spot shipments. The price of raw corn was adjusted by shocks, with a short-term upward trend as the main trend. The cost of ethanol was strongly supported. In terms of demand, the operating rate of chemical ethyl acetate was high, which was driven by favorable factors in the short term.

In the middle of this month, the domestic ethanol market was narrowed. In terms of raw materials, the price of corn was adjusted by shocks. The short-term upward trend was dominant, and the cost support was strong; The demand side maintained stable operation, the starting load of acetate was temporarily stable at a high level, and the short-term demand side procurement was stable. The start-up load of enterprises’ equipment continues to be weak, and the logistics in some areas is limited, and the freight rate has increased slightly in the short term.

At the end of this month, the domestic ethanol market price continued to fluctuate. The price of corn is temporarily stable at a high level, with limited vibration and strong cost support. The purchase price of the main downstream factories of acetate declined slightly, the starting load of the acetate industry remained low and stable, and the consumption did not increase. The ethanol market is stable and weak.

Strong cost support and stable demand operation. The ethanol analyst of the business association predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would be mainly settled by shocks.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the copper price in October showed a wide fluctuation trend. The copper price was 62670 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and rose to 64638.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 3.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.62%.

According to the current chart of the business community, in October, the spot price of copper was higher than the futures price. The main contract was the expected price two months later. Near the end of the month, the main basis difference became smaller, which was good for buying hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory rose first and then fell in October, higher than that in September.

Macro: In October, the European Central Bank raised three major interest rates by 75 basis points. The Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate resolution as scheduled, raising interest rates by another 75 basis points. The US reported that the CPI in September was the focus of the financial market. The CPI rose 8.2% in September, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

On the supply side: the risk of supply disturbance still exists. LME discussed the possibility of banning Russian metal trading, and this is the focus of LME annual meeting. The supply of copper concentrate is loose, and the processing cost of spot concentrate continues to increase, which has now exceeded 80 dollars, slightly better than the 70-75 dollars in the first half of the year. The new production capacity was put into operation. The domestic refined copper output in September was 909000 tons, up 6% month on month and 13% year on year. The supply pressure gradually increased in the later period.

Demand: In September, more than 1.5 trillion yuan of infrastructure projects were intensively started, infrastructure investment was further boosted, and infrastructure in the fourth quarter is expected to enter a new round of construction strengthening stage. The investment in electricity and new energy vehicles continued to grow at a high speed, especially in solar and wind power; Household appliances remained flat on the whole, with a slight positive increase in the output of air conditioners; The real estate continued to grow negatively, and there was no sign of stabilization.

To sum up, the weak US economic data boosted the expectation that the Federal Reserve would slow down its interest rate hike position, and the dollar index fell to a new low in nearly a month, improving the macro atmosphere. The supply of copper concentrate in China is becoming increasingly loose, and downstream enterprises are still afraid of high prices, further limiting the rise of copper prices. November is the traditional slack season in China, and the demand may be limited. However, the possibility that LME may ban Russian metals greatly supports copper prices. It is expected that copper prices in November will continue to operate mainly in a wide range of shocks.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene rose in October. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, up 27.40% year on year.

In October, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was operating stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong was operating at full load, the unit of Qilu Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Urumqi Petrochemical was operating at about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The commencement of overseas units was normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene rose slightly. In October, the international crude oil price rose sharply, while the PX external market price declined slightly. As of the 28th, the closing price was 943-945 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea and 961-963 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is less than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the domestic paraxylene market has risen slightly.

In October, the international crude oil price rose by 10.58%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 87.90 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 95.77 dollars/barrel. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce OPEC+’s total average daily output of crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the price of crude oil market rose sharply. As the negative pressure on the economy was difficult to ease, the World Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing. The IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and crude oil prices fell back, As of the 25th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States had been reported at 85.32 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures had been reported at 93.52 dollars/barrel. The oil price plays a game around the factors of slowing demand and tight supply, maintaining range shocks. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data showed that the US crude oil inventory surged last week, with crude oil inventory increasing by about 4.5 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreasing by about 2.3 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory increasing by about 600000 barrels. On the whole, the price of crude oil rose and the price of paraxylene rose.

In October, the domestic PTA spot market declined significantly, and the average price in the East China market was 5700 yuan/ton by the end of the month, down 10.63% from the beginning of the month. PTA maintenance and production reduction capacity decreased compared with last month. With the restart and resumption of production of large factories, the industrial load has increased significantly to 76%, and the supply has increased. However, due to the low actual inventory on the market, the overlapping epidemic situation has reduced the logistics efficiency, and the PTA market has declined. The weak terminal demand led to the further accumulation of the inventory of the polyester factory. As of the end of the month, the inventory of the polyester factory was about 31-38 days. Therefore, the raw materials were purchased as needed. With the approaching end of the winter stocking season, the current operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 65%, which is likely to continue to reduce the load. The polyester industry also has a strong expectation of load reduction. On the whole, the downstream PTA price fell sharply, which was bad for the domestic paraxylene market, while the domestic paraxylene market price rose slightly.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the business agency, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game against the demand side. Downstream demand is poor, the improvement of terminal orders is limited, polyester inventory pressure rises, profits are compressed again, and PTA prices are declining. In general, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will decline in the later period.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business associations, in October, the domestic vitamin market experienced different overall declines, and the prices of some products further bottomed out, including the prices of vitamin A and vitamin C further declined, while the prices of vitamin E were relatively firm.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of vitamin C continued to fall in October. The average price of food grade vitamin C was 29 yuan/kg at the beginning of the week and 28.67 yuan/kg at the weekend, with a monthly drop of 1.14% and a year-on-year drop of 41.09%. The factory continued to stop reporting, the traders’ prices followed the market, and the downstream purchase was insufficient. By the end of the month, the mainstream price of feed grade vitamin C was 22-24 yuan/kg.

In October, the price of vitamin A continued to drop, with an average price of 116 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 114.05 yuan/kg at the end of the month, a monthly drop of 1.72% and a year-on-year drop of 61.62%. The current mainstream market quotation is 108-114 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation drops to 30-35 euros/kg. The demand is weak, the market transaction focus continues to drop, and the market lacks the guidance of favorable factors, so the weakness is hard to change.

In October, the price of vitamin E remained stable as a whole, with the current VE market quotation of 82-84 yuan/kg and the European market quotation of 8.9-9.25 euros/kg. The tight supply of natural gas and electricity in Germany has led to the firm price. The domestic market said that the new Hecheng and Tianxin VE products have been stopped reporting, and the market attention has increased.

Future market forecast

According to the vitamin analyst of Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative, most vitamin products are weak at present, and the price of most vitamin products fluctuates at a low level. There is no rebound signal in the market, and the weak trend may continue in the future. Pay close attention to market trends and changes in enterprise production.