Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene rose in October. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, up 27.40% year on year.

In October, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was operating stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong was operating at full load, the unit of Qilu Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Urumqi Petrochemical was operating at about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The commencement of overseas units was normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene rose slightly. In October, the international crude oil price rose sharply, while the PX external market price declined slightly. As of the 28th, the closing price was 943-945 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea and 961-963 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is less than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the domestic paraxylene market has risen slightly.

In October, the international crude oil price rose by 10.58%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 87.90 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 95.77 dollars/barrel. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce OPEC+’s total average daily output of crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the price of crude oil market rose sharply. As the negative pressure on the economy was difficult to ease, the World Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing. The IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and crude oil prices fell back, As of the 25th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States had been reported at 85.32 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures had been reported at 93.52 dollars/barrel. The oil price plays a game around the factors of slowing demand and tight supply, maintaining range shocks. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data showed that the US crude oil inventory surged last week, with crude oil inventory increasing by about 4.5 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreasing by about 2.3 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory increasing by about 600000 barrels. On the whole, the price of crude oil rose and the price of paraxylene rose.

In October, the domestic PTA spot market declined significantly, and the average price in the East China market was 5700 yuan/ton by the end of the month, down 10.63% from the beginning of the month. PTA maintenance and production reduction capacity decreased compared with last month. With the restart and resumption of production of large factories, the industrial load has increased significantly to 76%, and the supply has increased. However, due to the low actual inventory on the market, the overlapping epidemic situation has reduced the logistics efficiency, and the PTA market has declined. The weak terminal demand led to the further accumulation of the inventory of the polyester factory. As of the end of the month, the inventory of the polyester factory was about 31-38 days. Therefore, the raw materials were purchased as needed. With the approaching end of the winter stocking season, the current operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 65%, which is likely to continue to reduce the load. The polyester industry also has a strong expectation of load reduction. On the whole, the downstream PTA price fell sharply, which was bad for the domestic paraxylene market, while the domestic paraxylene market price rose slightly.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the business agency, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game against the demand side. Downstream demand is poor, the improvement of terminal orders is limited, polyester inventory pressure rises, profits are compressed again, and PTA prices are declining. In general, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will decline in the later period.