The lead market (3.4-3.11) rose first and then fell this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15365 yuan / ton last weekend and 15125 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.56% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 10th week of 2022 (3.7-3.11), there are seven kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including one kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were nickel (9.37%), metallic silicon (2.35%) and antimony (1.56%). A total of 15 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 2 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (- 11.01%), aluminum (- 8.31%) and zinc (- 3.96%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.44%.

Futures market: Lun lead rose first and then fell this week, with the overall shock range of US $2350-2700 / ton. Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine at the beginning of the week, the overall market was dominated, with Lun lead rising. Later, with the easing of the situation, the market began to fall back and gradually return to normal. Shanghai lead rose and fell this week, basically following the trend of Lun lead, with an overall shock of 15150-16465 yuan / ton.

From a fundamental point of view, the downstream storage enterprises have gradually entered the traditional off-season, with weak demand support, and lead ingots are mainly purchased on demand. In the future, the business community believes that the downstream has entered the traditional off-season. In addition, the overall high lead ingot inventory affects the rising space of lead price. Under the influence of the current international situation, the metal market is generally stronger, and the price of lead is difficult to have a large upward space due to the restriction of demand and high inventory, It is expected that the operation is mainly stable, medium and strong.

DOTP prices stabilized after rising this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DOTP price stabilized after rising this week, and the overall DOTP market rose. As of March 11, the price of DOTP was 13000 yuan / ton, up 3.59% from 12550 yuan / ton on March 4 last weekend, and up 8.56% from 11975 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. The DOTP market rose overall this week. The price stabilized on March 11, and the prices of some manufacturers fell slightly.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week. As of March 11, the price of isooctanol was 13633.33 yuan / ton, up 5.14% from 12966.67 yuan / ton on March 4. Since the release of the mitigation signal of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on March 9, the rise in the price of isooctanol has slowed down. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose, the cost of DOTP rose, and the rising power of DOTP was large. As the rise of isooctanol slowed down, the support for the rise of DOTP in the future weakened.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, PTA prices rose first and then fell this week. The overall PTA price fell slightly, and PTA prices fell by 0.37% this week. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified, the price of crude oil rose sharply, and the price of PTA rose with it; On March 9, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was expected to ease, and the information was released. The price of crude oil plummeted, and the price of PTA plummeted on March 10. PTA prices fell, DOTP costs fell, and DOTP bad news increased and good news weakened.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, the price of crude oil has soared, the prices of DOTP raw materials isooctanol and PTA have risen, and the price of DOTP has risen; As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to ease, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, PTA prices have fallen, the rise of isooctanol has slowed down, the cost has decreased, and the support of DOTP rise has weakened. Generally speaking, the support for the rise of raw materials is weakened, the DOTP demand is temporarily stable, and the future DOTP price is expected to stabilize.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on March 4, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 17000 yuan / ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, and the price increased by 17.51% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the salicylic acid market was stable and small, the price of raw material phenol fell, and the cost support fell. Some salicylic acid enterprises began to slightly reduce 100-200 yuan / ton, so there is room for negotiation. At present, the enterprise starts stably, the supply is abundant, and the operators are stable and wait-and-see the market. By the end of the weekend, according to the data of business agency, the market offer of raw phenol was 10800-10850 yuan / ton, the quotation of domestic salicylic acid industrial enterprises was mostly in the range of 14000-19000 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade was mostly in the range of 24000-27000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade was mostly in the range of 20000-23000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phenol Market recovered after falling last week, and the market offer was 10800-10850 yuan / ton. Market analysis: the domestic phenol Market recovered after falling last week. At the beginning of the week, the port inventory was high, the mentality of cargo holders was under pressure, and the offer fell. Two days later, with the sharp rise of crude oil last week, pure benzene and propylene rose sharply. With the support of good cost side, phenol rose.

3、 Future forecast

The salicylic acid analyst of business agency believes that at present, the raw material shock is weak and the cost support is slightly weakened, but it has little impact on the salicylic acid market. The mentality of the industry is calm and is expected to continue to maintain a stable trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell slightly. Recently, the rare earth market fell slightly. Recently, the price of some domestic praseodymium neodymium series fell, and the price of the heavy rare earth market fell slightly. On March 6, the rare earth index was 1004 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.30% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), It is 270.48% higher than the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

Recently, the market price of light rare earth in China has decreased slightly, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium in the mainstream rare earth market is mainly stable. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased slightly, and the price trend of praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium and metal neodymium was temporarily stable. As of the 7th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earths in China was 1.21 million yuan / ton, down 0.82% this week; The price of neodymium is 1.485 million yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 1.09 million yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 1.1 million yuan / ton, down 0.45% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.36 million yuan / ton, with a decline of 0.18% this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 1.39 million yuan / ton. The price trend is flat this week, and the trend of domestic rare earth market falls slightly.

The domestic rare earth market price was slightly corrected, the on-site supply gap remained, the metal plant started normally and the demand remained stable, but the downstream manufacturers did not actively purchase, resulting in a slight drop in the market price. Recently, some separation enterprises have started gradually, so the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated slightly, the price trend in the field is stable, the downstream demand is strong, and the supply and demand gap in the rare earth field still exists. There is a game between upstream and downstream, the mainstream price of rare earth is stable as a whole, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. The rapid development of the new energy industry has driven the development of many industries. The upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also caught the “express”. In addition, the sales of new energy vehicles are normal, the demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxide is at a high level. Recently, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream has increased, and the price trend in the venue has been stable and slightly lower.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing, and the traditional peak season of rare earth demand has come to an end. However, the launch of relevant policies of the rare earth industry in the venue is expected, the supply and demand is expected to resonate with the policy, and the rare earth market continues to be high. In addition, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has been at a low level, the reluctance to sell and wait-and-see mood still exists, and the venue price remains high. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in January 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.422 million and 2.531 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 16.7% and 9.2% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and 0.9% respectively. The automobile production and sales showed a steady and small growth. Driven by the dual drive of market and policy, the demand market for vehicle specification semiconductors broke out in an all-round way, Recently, there is a high demand in the field of new energy, and the domestic light rare earth market demand has been supported to a certain extent. Affected by the inactive purchase, the domestic heavy rare earth market price fell slightly.

As can be seen from the trend chart, the price of domestic dysprosium series decreased slightly. As of the 7th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 3.1 million yuan / ton, which fell by 1.12% this week. The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 3.095 million yuan / ton, which fell by 1.12%. The price of metal dysprosium was 3.985 million yuan / ton. The price of domestic terbium series was temporarily stable this week, the price of domestic terbium series was temporarily stable, the price of domestic terbium oxide was 15.15 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 19.2 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth dropped slightly, the transaction market of domestic rare earth market was ok, and the procurement of leading magnetic material factory was general, which cooled the domestic heavy rare earth market slightly. Recently, some separation enterprises in the areas where medium and heavy rare earth mines are used, such as Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi, have restarted, and the supply has been alleviated to some extent, but the export of Myanmar is limited, The global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. Recently, the on-site procurement is not active, and the on-site heavy rare earth price trend has declined slightly.

In addition, with the support of national policies, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 meet the expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the state is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock ore type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and the ionic rare earth is 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increment will be concentrated in light rare earth, which will be a long-term trend. The rise of foreign demand has led to the rise of domestic rare earth market. On the whole, the demand for rare earth products has increased, and the price of domestic rare earth market has remained high.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight. Recently, the on-site transaction market has fallen, and the later supply enterprises will continue to restart. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that the market price of rare earth may fall slightly in the later stage.

Zinc prices rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc market fluctuated and rose this week, and the zinc price rose. As of March 7, the price of zinc was 26540 yuan / ton, up 6.12% from 25010 yuan / ton on February 28 last week. Zinc ingot inventory in zinc city increased this week, and the downward pressure on zinc price remains.

Zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market increased sharply

time . Futures inventory Increase or decrease

February 28th . one hundred and six thousand nine hundred and forty-six .- one thousand six hundred and seven

March 1st . one hundred and six thousand three hundred and twenty – six hundred and twenty-six

March 2nd . one hundred and six thousand three hundred and twenty . 0

March 3rd . one hundred and nine thousand two hundred and fifty-eight . two thousand nine hundred and thirty-eight

March 4th . one hundred and ten thousand nine hundred and forty-eight . one thousand six hundred and ninety

March 7th . one hundred and fourteen thousand six hundred and fifty-one . three thousand seven hundred and three

According to the zinc ingot inventory data sheet of Shanghai futures market, as of March 7, the zinc ingot futures inventory of Shanghai futures market was 114651 tons. In March, the zinc ingot inventory increased greatly, the inventory of Shanghai futures market increased, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, and the pressure of zinc price decline remained.

Russia Ukraine conflict intensifies European energy crisis

The deterioration of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia will affect the European energy supply, and the European natural gas market will be hit hard. Considering that Russia’s natural gas exports to Europe (pipeline gas + LNG) account for nearly 1 / 3 of its total demand, if the natural gas supply from Russia is seriously blocked, the already high European gas price will soar again. The sharp rise in natural gas prices drives up the price of electricity. The rise in zinc smelting costs may lead to further production reduction of zinc smelting in Europe. The output of zinc ingots in Europe is expected to decrease and the supply of zinc in the future is expected to decrease.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that this week, the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market rose, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, and the downward pressure on zinc price remained. The price of zinc ingot in Russia is expected to rise, and the supply of zinc ingot in Europe is expected to decrease.

The domestic aggregate MDI market price is low and mainly sorted out. The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and it is difficult to open the demand side in a short time. At present, the sales of goods in the trade link are not smooth, and the social inventory begins to increase slowly. Although the listing price of major production enterprises remained stable in March and the settlement was high in February, it is difficult to support the market price.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, on February 25 and March 4, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell from 20500 yuan / ton to 19833 yuan / ton. The price fell by 3.25% during the week, 6.36% month on month and 22.98% year-on-year.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of March 4:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong . 19600-19800 yuan / ton . 19000 yuan / ton

East China . 19600-19800 yuan / ton . 19000 yuan / ton

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene rose. The core reason for the price rise is the sharp rise in crude oil caused by the situation in Ukraine, and the cost side promotes the price upward. However, due to the lack of downstream demand, the rise and fall of pure benzene mainly follow the fluctuation of downstream styrene in the short term, and the overall rise is weaker than that of crude oil.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: the domestic aniline Market is weak, the raw material pure benzene is restrained first and then raised, and the cost support is acceptable. Due to the limited terminal profit in the downstream, the operating load is low. It is just necessary to buy raw aniline. The buying gas of Huabei aniline is light, and some factories make profits in the downstream and ship at a low price.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000 T / a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market may still be in the doldrums.

In February, domestic butyl acetate rose first and then fell. After the festival, the price of butyl acetate increased significantly due to the impact of the sharp rise in the cost of n-butanol, as well as the partial closure of the manufacturer and the reduction of supply. The price of butyl acetate increased significantly, with an increase of more than 12% in the first week after the Spring Festival in February. With the continuous decline of n-butanol price and the impact of sharp decline of acetic acid, after the start-up and normalization of the manufacturer’s device, butyl gradually fell, and the weak market continued to the end of the month. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate increased by 2.93% this month. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 10200-10500 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, acetic acid and n-butanol are out of the market. Domestic acetic acid continued to decline in February. According to the monitoring of business society, East China acetic acid fell as much as 25.05% this month. After the festival, the profits of acetic acid enterprises continued to decline, and the supply of domestic acetic acid enterprises was sufficient in the whole month, resulting in a passive situation of oversupply in the market, and the downward price compressed their own profits. The demand side is also bad. Affected by the Winter Olympic Games, the downstream construction is insufficient, and the demand is obviously lower. The contradiction between supply and demand led to continuous price reduction and shipment of acetic acid.

However, from the perspective of upstream n-butanol and curve, butyl acetate is highly consistent with n-butanol. After the festival, n-butanol ushered in a sharp rise, with a maximum increase of more than 27% in February. The market continued to fall in the middle and late ten days, which is also an important reason for the fall after the rise of ethyl acetate price.

In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers remained stable this month, and the market supply and demand remained relatively balanced, which still supported the price of butyl acetate. However, in terms of demand, the downstream factories started normally, and the market was limited to just needed buying. The market trading was not active, the demand follow-up was insufficient, and the market did not substantially improve. Yes, the rise and fall of butyl acetate mainly comes from the guidance of the cost of n-butanol.

Future forecast: at present, the price of raw material n-butanol retreats, acetic acid is weak, and butyl acetate Market is also weak. It may be difficult to get rid of the depressed market in the short term. The main downstream demand is weak. Although the downstream demand has followed up after the Winter Olympic Games, the supply and demand is still dominated by oversupply compared with the high inventory and the improvement of butyl ester operating rate. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic butyl acetate Market will be adjusted weakly in the short term, and the trend of dual raw materials still needs to be paid attention to in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated higher in February. At the beginning of the month, the market was 7750 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 8375 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 8.06%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business society, the overall trend of propylene market fluctuated upward in February, especially in the latter ten days, the price broke through the 8000 yuan mark, and the price further rose. In early February, the downstream of propylene market began to resume driving after the festival. Affected by natural weather and transportation constraints, the supply of propylene in the region was tight, and the price of propylene was tight and rising. In the middle of the year, with the gradual resumption of construction in the market and the increase of supply, the market began to return to normal. At the same time, the downstream polypropylene market was general, the product price continued to hang upside down, and the propylene price gradually corrected. In the latter half of the year, the cost pressure of downstream polypropylene was slightly relieved, driving the improvement of downstream demand. In addition, some other favorable factors jointly boosted the trading of propylene market, and the price stopped falling and rising.

Upstream crude oil, propane and liquefied gas all rose to varying degrees. Among them, crude oil, which has a great impact on the price of propylene, rose by 8.41% in February, liquefied gas and propane rose by 8.3% and 5% respectively, and methanol fell by 0.45%. The cost of raw materials is high, the profitability of propylene industry is low, and the cost support is strong.

Downstream products, except propylene and phenol, rose in varying degrees. Polypropylene rose by 1.07%, which was relatively small. The polypropylene market did not improve significantly, and it was difficult for propylene prices to rise further in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: in general, the market of downstream products needs to be improved, especially polypropylene, and the overall demand side pull is limited. At present, the propylene price is on the high side, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the propylene price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the future under the support of cost.

In February, the domestic liquid ammonia market maintained a range shock, and the trading focus shifted slightly higher than that in January. According to the monitoring of business agency, the liquid ammonia rose by 1.35% this month. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia was 4100-4350 yuan / ton. On the one hand, during the Winter Olympics, the supply in the North was tightened, which led to the warming of the market and the general recovery of ammonia city after the festival. In addition, after the festival, the downstream preparation also pushed up the ammonia price. After the middle of the year, due to the increase of construction in Shandong, the amount of ammonia in the North increased, and the prices in Shanxi, Hebei and other places fell. The market shock continued until the end of the month.

On the supply side, the overall supply of this month is tight before loose. During the Winter Olympics, some factories in the north were shut down. In addition, transportation was subject to certain restrictions, which also led to a general rise in ammonia prices. The supply in the South was loose. In the middle of the month, the supply was tightened and the ammonia price rebounded due to the impact of export driven and Jiujiang parking. Generally speaking, the centralized maintenance devices in February were concentrated in Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia.

On the cost side, coal continued to decline in February. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 1167.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was about 900 yuan / ton, down 22.91% and up 56.05% year-on-year. On the one hand, after the Spring Festival, the mine resumed production one after another, which was affected by the increase of supply. In addition, affected by the policy, the coal price decreased significantly. Lower coal prices have eased the cost pressure of downstream methanol, liquid ammonia and other coal chemical industries.

From the demand side, the mainstream ex factory price of urea first rose and then fell this month: the quotation first rose from 2644.00 yuan / ton on February 1 to 2700.00 yuan / ton on February 11, up 56 yuan / ton, up 2.12%, and then fell to 2662.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 1.41%, up 21.55% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. There is still a downward trend at the end of the month. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is wait-and-see, and industrial demand is enhanced. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer use has entered the peak season, but the national development and Reform Commission emphasizes the work of ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of chemical fertilizer. The price of urea has fallen slightly recently. Affected by the rise or fall of buying, dealers are not active in taking goods, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. On the whole, urea is still weak, which has a negative impact on the ammonia Market to a certain extent.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since February, the range between them has narrowed slightly, and the trend of liquid ammonia is slightly stronger than that of urea.

Future forecast: the business community believes that some ammonia enterprises have maintenance or load reduction plans in March, and the re contraction of supply will be good for the ammonia Market. At the same time, in the peak farming season, the production of compound fertilizer will speed up and the purchase of raw materials will be strengthened. However, considering the decline of upstream coal due to regulation, the market mentality may be negatively affected, which will limit the rebound of ammonia price. Overall, the ammonia market may continue to improve in March.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8450 yuan / ton on February 28, down 0.12% from 8460 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4.25% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the PVC market rose rapidly after the Spring Festival, but the rising market continued for a short time. It continued to decline from the middle of the year to the end of the month, showing a roller coaster market. The market was relatively volatile this month. During the Spring Festival, crude oil rose, and the macro atmosphere was good, which boosted market sentiment and raised the offer of enterprises. After the festival, although the downstream products industry has resumed work and production one after another, the resumption of work in North China has been delayed due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games, and the overall market demand has not improved as expected. In the middle of the year, with the weakening of the macro atmosphere, the current PVC market has declined. In addition, PVC manufacturers have started steadily recently, the market supply is loose, and the price of raw calcium carbide has fallen, which further exacerbated the downward trend of PVC, The atmosphere of market transaction has weakened. By the end of the month, the price of raw calcium carbide had fallen to around 4050-4150 yuan / ton. The quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8300-8800 yuan / ton. The price of pvc5 calcium carbide in Tianjin was 8520-8570 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou was 8600-8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Changzhou was 8650-8700 yuan / ton, Recently, market prices across the country have fallen steadily.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from December 6, 2021 to February 27, 2022, the domestic PVC cycle has been mixed, with the largest decrease of 2.54% in the week of December 13 and 3.84% in the week of February 7, 2022, and then continued to decline.

region . workmanship . 2 / 28 (yuan / ton) 2 / 7 (yuan / ton) . Rise and fall . remarks

East China . Calcium carbide method 8500-8750 . 9100-9250. – 600/-500 . Ex warehouse

south China . Calcium carbide method . 8550-8750 . 9100-9150 .- 600/-400 . Ex warehouse

North China . Calcium carbide method . 8500-8550 . 8900-8950. – 400/-400 . Deliver

southwest . Calcium carbide method . 8500-8750. 9000-9100 .- 400/-350 . Deliver

At present, the external price of CFR China is stable at US $1300 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia is up 10 at US $1320 / ton, and CFR India is up 20 at US $1560 / ton.

International crude oil, on February 25, the price of international crude oil futures fell. Us WTI crude oil futures contract settlement price in April was US $91.59/barrel, down US $1.22 or 1.31%; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract in April was US $95.42/barrel, down US $1.15 or 1.20%.

For ethylene, the external ethylene market showed an overall upward trend this week. Asian ethylene market prices rose. As of the 24th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1256-1266 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1226-1236 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 24th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1318-1328 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1197-1205 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated slightly. As of the 24th, the price was 805-823 yuan / ton. This week, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose, which was mainly affected by the upstream crude oil market. The price was chaotic. The decline of ethylene in Europe led to the decline of ethylene market.

Calcium carbide, in mid and early March, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The prices of upstream raw materials coke and blue carbon fell slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide was insufficient. The downstream 1,4 butanediol market rose slightly, the PVC market was mainly sorted out, and the downstream demand was general. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of March.

3、 Future forecast

According to PVC analysts of business society, the demand expectation of PVC market in February was insufficient, the supply side was slightly loose, the price of raw materials fell, and the fundamentals were weak. However, in March, the external market was strong and the downstream demand continued to improve. It is expected that the PVC market may pick up, and the specific information guidance needs to be paid attention to.