1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8450 yuan / ton on February 28, down 0.12% from 8460 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4.25% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
In February, the PVC market rose rapidly after the Spring Festival, but the rising market continued for a short time. It continued to decline from the middle of the year to the end of the month, showing a roller coaster market. The market was relatively volatile this month. During the Spring Festival, crude oil rose, and the macro atmosphere was good, which boosted market sentiment and raised the offer of enterprises. After the festival, although the downstream products industry has resumed work and production one after another, the resumption of work in North China has been delayed due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games, and the overall market demand has not improved as expected. In the middle of the year, with the weakening of the macro atmosphere, the current PVC market has declined. In addition, PVC manufacturers have started steadily recently, the market supply is loose, and the price of raw calcium carbide has fallen, which further exacerbated the downward trend of PVC, The atmosphere of market transaction has weakened. By the end of the month, the price of raw calcium carbide had fallen to around 4050-4150 yuan / ton. The quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8300-8800 yuan / ton. The price of pvc5 calcium carbide in Tianjin was 8520-8570 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou was 8600-8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Changzhou was 8650-8700 yuan / ton, Recently, market prices across the country have fallen steadily.
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According to the weekly increase and decrease from December 6, 2021 to February 27, 2022, the domestic PVC cycle has been mixed, with the largest decrease of 2.54% in the week of December 13 and 3.84% in the week of February 7, 2022, and then continued to decline.
region . workmanship . 2 / 28 (yuan / ton) 2 / 7 (yuan / ton) . Rise and fall . remarks
East China . Calcium carbide method 8500-8750 . 9100-9250. – 600/-500 . Ex warehouse
south China . Calcium carbide method . 8550-8750 . 9100-9150 .- 600/-400 . Ex warehouse
North China . Calcium carbide method . 8500-8550 . 8900-8950. – 400/-400 . Deliver
southwest . Calcium carbide method . 8500-8750. 9000-9100 .- 400/-350 . Deliver
At present, the external price of CFR China is stable at US $1300 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia is up 10 at US $1320 / ton, and CFR India is up 20 at US $1560 / ton.
International crude oil, on February 25, the price of international crude oil futures fell. Us WTI crude oil futures contract settlement price in April was US $91.59/barrel, down US $1.22 or 1.31%; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract in April was US $95.42/barrel, down US $1.15 or 1.20%.
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For ethylene, the external ethylene market showed an overall upward trend this week. Asian ethylene market prices rose. As of the 24th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1256-1266 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1226-1236 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 24th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1318-1328 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1197-1205 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated slightly. As of the 24th, the price was 805-823 yuan / ton. This week, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose, which was mainly affected by the upstream crude oil market. The price was chaotic. The decline of ethylene in Europe led to the decline of ethylene market.
Calcium carbide, in mid and early March, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The prices of upstream raw materials coke and blue carbon fell slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide was insufficient. The downstream 1,4 butanediol market rose slightly, the PVC market was mainly sorted out, and the downstream demand was general. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of March.
3、 Future forecast
According to PVC analysts of business society, the demand expectation of PVC market in February was insufficient, the supply side was slightly loose, the price of raw materials fell, and the fundamentals were weak. However, in March, the external market was strong and the downstream demand continued to improve. It is expected that the PVC market may pick up, and the specific information guidance needs to be paid attention to.
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