According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on August 9 was 5024 yuan / kg, which was 5241.33 yuan / kg higher than the average early trading price of spot market on August 6; Decreased by 4.15%; Compared with the early average price of 5329.67 yuan / kg in the spot market in early August (August 1), a decrease of 5.74%; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 9.48%.

On August 9, the spot early trading price of gold was 363.30 yuan / g, down 3.07% from 374.80 yuan / G on August 6; Compared with the spot market price in early August (8.1), the early average price was 366.77 yuan / g, a decrease of 4.45%; Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 7.49%.

Negative main reason: strong non-agricultural data

On Friday, the US non farm employment report was released, and the relatively strong non farm data triggered market expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon start to reduce monetary stimulus.

U.S. employment growth in July hit the largest increase in nearly a year, and the unemployment rate also fell faster than expected. The U.S. non farm employment report released after the quarterly adjustment in July recorded an increase of 943000, the largest increase since April last year, of which the employment in leisure and hotel industry increased by 380000; At the same time, an increase of 870000 people higher than the expected value; Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in July was 5.4%, better than the expected 5.7%; The U-6 underemployment rate decreased from 9.8% to 9.2%. The U.S. Bureau of labor statistics also released the revised non-agricultural data for May and June. In May, the number of new non-agricultural employment increased by 31000 to 614000; In June, the number of new non-agricultural employment increased by 88000 to 938000. In terms of itemized data, according to the household survey, the number of employed people soared from 1043000 to 15264.5 million, and the number of unemployed people decreased from 9.484 million to 8.702 million; The labor participation rate increased slightly from 61.6% to 61.7%.

After the release of the report, the US dollar rose, treasury bond yields rose and gold and silver fell. Because the strong employment data may indicate that the Fed will announce the decision to reduce QE as early as September, and then start reducing bond purchase at the end of this year or early next year. After the data were released, US dollar and US bond yields rose together, while gold and silver suffered a sharp decline. Higher interest rates will weaken the competitiveness of gold relative to interest bearing assets.

Multi null variables: factors of overseas public health events

The number of new cases in the United States, Iraq, Spain and Japan continued to rise, but the growth rate in Britain and Russia remained stable. In terms of vaccination, China, Germany and France have surpassed the United States for times. Overall, affected by delta + mutant strains, the global epidemic continued to spread. Last Friday, more than 700000 people were added in a single day, including 145000 in the United States and 70000 in the euro zone. However, the probability of infection and severe disease in vaccinated patients decreased.

Capital considerations

Last week, SPDR’s gold ETF position decreased by 6.17 tons to 1025.3 tons, but the total silver ETF position increased by 28 tons to 28584 tons. Gold and silver investment differentiation.

Future forecast

In the short term, precious metals are under more pressure, mainly due to the suppression of precious metal prices by market expectations generated by macroeconomic data. The recent focus is on inflation data, including the initial annual CPI rate of the United States in July on Wednesday and the PPI report data on Thursday.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of July 31, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 30666 yuan / ton. Compared with July 1 (the average reference price of organosilicon DMC was 30566 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 0.33%.

In early July, the overall high-level consolidation operation of the domestic silicone DMC market was dominated, and the market was stable, which can be described as “calm”. As of July 15, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic silicone DMC was around 30300-30800 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that at the beginning of the month.

In late July, on the 16th, in Shandong Province, Luxi Chemical took the lead in breaking the calm by slightly raising the ex factory price of silicone DMC of the plant by 100 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of Luxi Chemical was 30700 yuan / ton. Most other factories continued to focus on stability, and the market continued to maintain high and stable operation. On the 20th, Luxi Chemical again raised the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC to 30800 yuan / ton, and other individual factories also had sporadic small price increases, but most factories continued to stay at a high level. Until the end of July, the overall performance of the market was “stable”. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 31, the average ex factory price of domestic silicone DMC was 30666 yuan / ton, which increased by 100 yuan / ton or 0.33% compared with the price on July 1.

Upstream, in July, the domestic metal silicon market rose as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of July 31, the reference price of metal silicon was 15166.67 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 5.57% compared with July 1 (14366.67 yuan / ton).

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, when the silicone DMC market continues to be high, the downstream is gradually cautious in taking goods, and the support for the domestic silicone DMC market to break through the calm and close upward is slightly insufficient. Therefore, the silicone DMC analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC Market will mainly adjust the high consolidation range.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride rose in July. As of the end of the month, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 6700 yuan / ton, up 6.14% from the price of 6312.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 33% year-on-year. The price trend of phthalic anhydride rose in July. The spot supply on the site was normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rose.

In July, the overall price trend of phthalic anhydride market rose, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field improved, and the downstream demand increased recently. In July, the price trend of phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable, the plasticizer market rose, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose supported by the good. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site is about 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the price trend of phthalic anhydride on the site is rising, the market of downstream plasticizer industry is rising, and the actual transaction situation is improving. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride in East China is rising, and there are limited high-end transactions on the floor. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 6400-6500 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6700-6800 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Recently, the downstream DOP market trend has risen, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen.

In July, the price trend of domestic orthobenzene was temporarily stable, with an on-site price of 6200 yuan / ton. The stable price of domestic orthobenzene is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the imported orthobenzene market in the port area remains high, and the external quotation of orthobenzene is stable. Recently, the inventory of orthobenzene in the port area has been overstocked, and the external quotation of orthobenzene is stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, The price trend of o-benzene was temporarily stable, the price of raw material o-benzene was good for the domestic phthalic anhydride market price, and the overall trend of phthalic anhydride market rose in July.

In July, the market price of DOP downstream of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 15675 yuan / ton by the end of the month, and the price increase in July was 17.86%. The equipment of DOP enterprises in the field started normally. With the rise of isooctanol price, the DOP cost increased, and the DOP price trend increased significantly. DOP enterprises started normally, the spot supply on the floor was normal, and the upward momentum of DOP in the future weakened. In the future, the cost of DOP decreased, the operating rate of enterprises increased, the support of DOP rise weakened, and the excessive price caused too much pressure on the cost of downstream products, the upward momentum of plasticizer DOP market weakened, and the downward pressure still existed. The transaction price was subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price was about 15400-15700 yuan / ton. The DOP market trend rose sharply in July, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market was affected.

On the whole, the recent trend of crude oil price is relatively strong, the market trend of downstream plasticizer industry remains high, and the recent trend of orthobenzene price rise, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride may rise steadily in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market rose actively in July. As of July 31, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 4433.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.57% over the average price level at the beginning of the month and 65.73% over the same period last year.

The domestic potassium sulfate Market has experienced a long-term rise since the end of May. In July, the supply side of the domestic potash fertilizer market remained tight, and the pattern remained unchanged, and potassium sulfate still maintained a positive market. The spot increase in the month was concentrated in the middle of the first half of the month. In the latter half of the month, due to the impact of a small increase in the on-site supply, the on-site offer began to stabilize. Recently, the output of domestic potassium chloride fertilizer has also decreased, and the monthly increase of potassium chloride spot is more than 14%. The upstream panel remains strong, the cost end pressure of potassium sulfate intensifies, and the load of domestic Mannheim unit is further reduced to less than 60%. Due to the high construction cost pressure and the resistance of the demand side to the high price supply, the market momentum began to decrease, there was upward resistance in the latter ten days, the actual transaction was limited, and the market increase narrowed. At present, the ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported as 4600 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of tripartite chemical group is reported as 4600 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the domestic potassium fertilizer market price remained rising in July, the price of raw potassium chloride increased greatly, and the cost support of domestic potassium sulfate was strong. The potash fertilizer market is in short supply of Lido potassium related products, but the load of processing potassium sulfate enterprises is forced to be reduced due to cost pressure. In terms of demand, the follow-up efforts of terminal enterprises are gradually reduced, and the shipment of high price goods is blocked. It is expected that the increase of domestic potassium sulfate price may narrow in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 1882 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 2137.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 13.58% and a year-on-year increase of 64.42%. On July 29, the commodity index of light soda ash was 106.41, the same as yesterday, down 9.71% from the highest point of 117.86 in the cycle (November 21, 2017), and up 68.50% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business society, the soda ash market atmosphere is good, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2100-2200 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is relatively strong, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2000-2050 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term high price of soda ash is dominated.

Demand: the glass price is strong this month. The average price at the beginning of the month is 35.35 yuan / m2, and the average price at the end of the month is 38.58 yuan / m2, with a price increase of 9.14% and a year-on-year increase of 96.14%. Glass spot market prices rose slightly, inventory growth slowed down, and prices in some regions increased. In terms of Shahe in North China, the shipment of enterprises is OK, the inventory of enterprises is low, and some manufacturers have increased slightly. The overall trend of glass spot market in East China is general, and the quotations of individual manufacturers are increased. The production and sales in Central China are OK, and the spot price of glass has increased. Glass shipments in South China are better, and the prices of individual enterprises have increased. On the whole, there is no pressure on the manufacturer’s inventory, the overall shipment is good, and the price is mainly increased slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 29th week of 2021 (7.19-7.23), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling and 1 kind of commodity rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising were: caustic soda (7.05%), light soda (2.89%), calcium carbide (0.98%); The main commodities falling were PVC (- 0.14%). Both rose or fell by 2.16% this week. Average: 20.00%.

Business analysts believe that domestic soda ash prices are strong, and manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. Downstream glass prices are strong, and soda ash still gives strong support to glass. The inventory of soda ash has decreased and the supply is tight. Generally speaking, soda ash is mostly strong in the later stage, and the market operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

Upstream enterprises have different shipments and traders are unstable. Most underground tourism enterprises such as Lubei purchase on demand. Crude oil fluctuates and coal prices are strong. Recently, the domestic methanol market has been stable. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 27, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2585 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of 59.32%.

The methanol market in major regions in China is dominated by sorting, the downstream receiving is limited, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the shipment of production enterprises is stable, and the downstream purchases on demand. The spot transaction of methanol in the port area is light. Although delivery has been resumed in Taicang and Zhangjiagang reservoir areas, spot gas buying is still light because some expressways are still restricted.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of July 27:

Region, price

Qinghai region 2180 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Shanxi region 2290-2300 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region 2430-2450 yuan / ton factory delivery

Fujian region RMB 2650 / T ex warehouse spot exchange

Lianghu area Ex factory reference: 2570 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Anhui region 2560-2570 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan region 2405-2415 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Downstream, the formaldehyde market fell steadily. The market price of dimethyl ether returned to stable operation, some regions adjusted themselves, and the trading atmosphere was acceptable. The mainstream of domestic acetic acid market is stable. Recently, the market continues to be stable, and the market trading atmosphere is smooth.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on July 27, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 385.00-386.00/t. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 115.00-116.00 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 342.00-343.00 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 385.00-386.00/t USD 0 / ton

Europe and America American Gulf 115.00-116.00 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 342.00-343.00 euros / ton 2 euro / ton

Methanol analysts of business society expect that the short-term methanol market may be dominated by consolidation.

Trade name: titanium dioxide

Latest price (July 27): 21233.33 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on July 27, the main price of titanium dioxide in China was weak overall. At present, the demand for titanium dioxide is weak, the sulfuric acid price is up, the price of titanium concentrate is down, and the price of Longqi titanium dioxide is mainly stable, and the price of some manufacturers is slightly loose. Up to now, the tax bearing factory quotation of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 18500-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of sharp titanium dioxide with tax is 16600-19000 yuan / ton.

Forecast: in the short term, the weak operation of white powder market is the main.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the chloroform market fell slightly this week (7.19-7.23). The price of methane was 4152 yuan / ton on the third day of the week and 3980 yuan / ton on the weekend, with an overall slight decrease of 4.15%.

The price of raw liquid chlorine fell sharply, the price of methanol rose slightly, and the cost support was weak. According to the business agency, as of July 23, the price of methanol was 2585 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.27% compared with 2552 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine of tank car in Shandong Province is about 900 yuan / ton.

Recently, there has been no significant increase in refrigerant sales. Affected by the increase of refrigerant inventory, there are many refrigerant unit maintenance, mainly negative.

Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that the cost side remains low at the stage, and the demand side support is weakened. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to be weak in the later stage.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic first class industrial grade potassium nitrate quotation at the beginning of the week was 5480.00 yuan / ton, while that of the first class domestic industrial grade product was 5680.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 3.65%, and the current price rose 15.45% on a month basis, and the current price rose 35.64% year on year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate moved upward, with the market supply continuously short, most of which were concentrated in the hands of large traders, covering the market and sparing sales, and the overall market transaction was slow. The supply and demand are unbalanced, the potassium nitrate market continues to rise, and the price is constantly rising. According to statistics of business agency: the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 5200-5900 yuan / ton this week (quotation is for reference only), and different prices are offered according to the purchase situation.

Recently, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride was vibrated and consolidated: on July 23, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The factory offer is about 2450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On July 23, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. will not offer any price for potassium chloride. In recent years, the market of potassium chloride continued to be high and strong, with imported potassium supply slightly supplemented, but large traders released less goods, and it is expected to be mainly high consolidation in the later period.

In the near future, the domestic potash market has slightly increased in supply, traders are shipping a small amount, and downstream on demand procurement. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will mainly increase in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be seen（ The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of business society. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.

International oil prices fell more than 6% in the previous trading day, and rose significantly on the 20th. The analysis points out that although the decision of major oil producing countries to increase production worries the market, it is expected that with the recovery of global demand, the supply and demand gap will still exist, and the international oil price is expected to continue to be supported.

As of the close of the 20th, the price of light crude oil for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1, or 1.51%, to close at $67.42 a barrel; London Brent crude for September delivery rose $0.73, or 1.06%, to $69.35 a barrel.

Affected by the adjustment of production by major oil producing countries and market concerns about the epidemic situation, oil prices in New York and London Brent fell sharply by 7.51% and 6.75% on the 19th, respectively, the biggest one-day drop since September 8 last year and March 18 this year.

The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non OPEC oil producing countries said on the 18th that they would extend the current production reduction agreement, which was originally due to expire in April 2022, to the end of 2022, and increase the average daily output by 400000 barrels from August this year. In addition, the meeting also decided to increase the production baseline of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and Iraq from May 2022, with a total increase of 1.632 million barrels per day. This has aroused market concern under the current epidemic situation.

However, analysts believe that the gradual increase in production agreements reached by major oil producing countries will not lead to a significant increase in market supply in the short term, but will help stabilize market expectations. The biggest variable facing the future oil price is still the trend of global epidemic, and the market may be more sensitive to this.

Helioma Croft, head of global commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, believes that the market can absorb the increase of 400000 barrels of daily crude oil supply per month. Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at German commercial bank, said that the agreement reached between OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries has solved internal differences, helped restore investor confidence and expectations, and is good for oil prices.

It is also pointed out that, from the perspective of supply and demand, although the market’s concern about the spread of the new coronavirus delta strain is increasing, global oil demand is still in the process of rapid recovery, and there is still a gap in oil supply in the short term, which is expected to continue to support oil prices.

OPEC said that with the acceleration of the new crown vaccination, the economy in most parts of the world is still recovering, there are obvious signs of growth in oil demand, and oil inventories in OECD countries are declining.

According to the prediction of the International Energy Agency, oil demand will rebound strongly in the second half of 2021, and the annual energy demand is expected to increase by 4.6%. Despite the gradual increase in supply from oil producing countries, the global oil market is still likely to face a daily average shortage of 1.5 million barrels in the second half of this year.

Affected by the impact of the epidemic, the international oil price fell to a negative value in April last year, and OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries also reached an agreement on reducing production in the same month, with an average of 9.7 million barrels per day. Since the implementation of the production reduction agreement in May last year, the international oil price has gradually picked up. In April this year, the major oil producing countries decided to gradually increase oil production from May. At present, the reduction rate is about 5.8 million barrels per day.