According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on August 9 was 5024 yuan / kg, which was 5241.33 yuan / kg higher than the average early trading price of spot market on August 6; Decreased by 4.15%; Compared with the early average price of 5329.67 yuan / kg in the spot market in early August (August 1), a decrease of 5.74%; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 9.48%.

On August 9, the spot early trading price of gold was 363.30 yuan / g, down 3.07% from 374.80 yuan / G on August 6; Compared with the spot market price in early August (8.1), the early average price was 366.77 yuan / g, a decrease of 4.45%; Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 7.49%.

Negative main reason: strong non-agricultural data

On Friday, the US non farm employment report was released, and the relatively strong non farm data triggered market expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon start to reduce monetary stimulus.

U.S. employment growth in July hit the largest increase in nearly a year, and the unemployment rate also fell faster than expected. The U.S. non farm employment report released after the quarterly adjustment in July recorded an increase of 943000, the largest increase since April last year, of which the employment in leisure and hotel industry increased by 380000; At the same time, an increase of 870000 people higher than the expected value; Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in July was 5.4%, better than the expected 5.7%; The U-6 underemployment rate decreased from 9.8% to 9.2%. The U.S. Bureau of labor statistics also released the revised non-agricultural data for May and June. In May, the number of new non-agricultural employment increased by 31000 to 614000; In June, the number of new non-agricultural employment increased by 88000 to 938000. In terms of itemized data, according to the household survey, the number of employed people soared from 1043000 to 15264.5 million, and the number of unemployed people decreased from 9.484 million to 8.702 million; The labor participation rate increased slightly from 61.6% to 61.7%.

After the release of the report, the US dollar rose, treasury bond yields rose and gold and silver fell. Because the strong employment data may indicate that the Fed will announce the decision to reduce QE as early as September, and then start reducing bond purchase at the end of this year or early next year. After the data were released, US dollar and US bond yields rose together, while gold and silver suffered a sharp decline. Higher interest rates will weaken the competitiveness of gold relative to interest bearing assets.

Multi null variables: factors of overseas public health events

The number of new cases in the United States, Iraq, Spain and Japan continued to rise, but the growth rate in Britain and Russia remained stable. In terms of vaccination, China, Germany and France have surpassed the United States for times. Overall, affected by delta + mutant strains, the global epidemic continued to spread. Last Friday, more than 700000 people were added in a single day, including 145000 in the United States and 70000 in the euro zone. However, the probability of infection and severe disease in vaccinated patients decreased.

Capital considerations

Last week, SPDR’s gold ETF position decreased by 6.17 tons to 1025.3 tons, but the total silver ETF position increased by 28 tons to 28584 tons. Gold and silver investment differentiation.

Future forecast

In the short term, precious metals are under more pressure, mainly due to the suppression of precious metal prices by market expectations generated by macroeconomic data. The recent focus is on inflation data, including the initial annual CPI rate of the United States in July on Wednesday and the PPI report data on Thursday.