1、 Price trend

Toluene prices rose this week, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On May 30, the price of toluene was 5800 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (June 6) was 5841 yuan / ton, up 41 yuan / ton, or 0.7% compared with last week; It was up 59.59% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The peripheral news was positive, boosting toluene prices higher, but downstream demand followed up weak, limiting gains. In terms of external market, as of June 4, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was 761 USD / T, up 21 USD / T, or 2.84% in the week, compared with May 28 on the same month; The price of toluene imported from East China was US $773 / T, up $11 / T, or 1.44% in the week, on May 28.

On the crude oil side, the United States entered the peak driving travel season, and the demand for gasoline has obviously increased. And opec+ conference decided to maintain the gradual increase plan unchanged. The outlook for the crude oil market is good, with oil prices rocketing this week. Brent rose $1.175/barrel this week, or 1.69 percent, on May 28; WTI rose $3.29/barrel, or 4.98 percent.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell in shock, with domestic products of 13250 yuan / ton, down 6.69% compared with last week, up 16.91% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX price rose this week, with the price of 6500 yuan / ton, up 1.56% compared with last week, and 58.54% year on year. Asia closed at $830-832 / T FOB Korea and $848-850 / T CFR China as of June 4.

3、 Post market forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, supporting the price of toluene; The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. In general, the price of toluene in the short term is mainly consolidation. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of blending price of crude oil and gasoline, the maintenance of toluene plant, the arrival volume of toluene in the later period and the influence of downstream demand on the price of toluene.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 7, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 510 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on June 1, and increased by 30 yuan / ton, or 6.25%, compared with that on May 1 (480 yuan / ton).

In June, China’s phosphorus ore market as a whole was in a high and stable consolidation operation, and the turnover in some regions continued to move up, while the turnover at the low end of the market continued to decrease. As of June 7, the price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is around 430-460 yuan / ton, and the price of high-end phosphate ore is 480 yuan / ton. In Guangxi, the phosphorus ore market is stable for the time being. The quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore factory is 380-400 yuan / ton, and the quotation of high-end phosphate ore is 420 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. In Hubei Province, the quoted price of 30% grade phosphorus ore for mainstream ship plate is about 500-530 yuan / ton. In Sichuan Province, the delivery price of 30% phosphate concentrate is 360-390 yuan / ton. In Yunnan Province, the mainstream price of 28% grade phosphate ore is about 280-300 yuan / ton.

According to the business news agency, the following is the price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 380-420 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 420-480 yuan / ton Vehicle price

Phosphate rock Hubei 30% 500-530 yuan / ton Mainstream board price

Phosphate rock Sichuan 30% phosphate concentrate 360-390 yuan / ton County free price

Phosphate rock Yunnan 28% 280-300 yuan / ton Mainstream vehicle price

Forecast of future trend of phosphate rock

In the early stage, the price of yellow phosphorus products in the downstream of phosphate rock rose sharply. Under the high price, the cost pressure of terminal downstream increased, the operating rate decreased, the demand also decreased, and the wait-and-see mood of downstream procurement increased. In June, I heard that the price of yellow phosphorus Market was weakening, and the transaction volume also decreased relatively. According to the phosphorus ore analysts of business news agency, the reduction of short-term demand for yellow phosphorus will be an important factor affecting the market of phosphate rock. Therefore, in June, the domestic phosphorus ore market will decline slightly under the influence of the consolidation industry chain.

Commodity name: urea

Latest price (June 7): 2730.00 yuan / ton

On June 7, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose, 225 yuan / ton higher than that of June 4, up 8.98%, which was a big increase. The upstream natural gas and coal prices are recently high consolidation, with better cost support. From the aspect of demand: the agricultural demand of all regions is followed up in succession; Downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plant started higher, the new orders of the enterprise followed up well, melamine was produced again and demand increased. From the aspect of supply: the unit maintenance of urea enterprises is still in the near future, with an average operating rate of about 75%, a daily production of 15000 tons, the supply end tightening, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory also maintain a lower position. Overall, the cost of urea is well supported this week, downstream demand increases, urea supply is tight and supply is short of demand.

The market is expected to see a small increase in the factory price of urea in Shandong Province: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2750 yuan / ton.

The NBR market rebounded slightly this week (5.31-6.4). According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of NBR was 21066 yuan / ton as of June 4, up 1.28% compared with the price of 20800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, the domestic NBR rebounded slightly, and the factory price of Lanhua nitrile increased by 300 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of June 4, the factory report of n41e of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was 18200 yuan / ton; 3305e report: RMB 19300 / ton; 3308e reported 20200 yuan / ton. After the fall since mid March, the price of NBR has gradually returned to rationality. In addition, the environmental protection supervision has ended, the downstream load has slightly increased, the demand has some support in the face of NBR, the factory price of the manufacturer has been tentatively increased, and the price of traders without inventory pressure has been slightly increased. According to the business society, the mainstream market of Lanhua nitrile n41 is reported at around 19400 yuan / ton; Russia’s nitrile 3365 reported 18700 yuan / ton.

The price of butadiene raw materials continued to rise, and more support was provided. According to the business agency, the price of butadiene as of June 4 was 7608 yuan / ton, up 3.12% from 7378 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Post market forecast: the NBR analysts of business agency believe that the relative pressure on supply side is not large, and the price in the early stage has fallen sharply, and the NBR market is expected to be stable next week.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde this week is 5833 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable.

2、 Market analysis

On May 25, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 5700 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which was the same as last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 5600 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 6200 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Polyoxymethylene can be sold in the market.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic methanol manufacturers in Shandong was 2670 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 2685 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 0.56%.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene goods go smoothly, polyoxymethylene business analysts expect that polyoxymethylene or will run smoothly.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2525.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 80.16 on May 28.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend sales offer 2650 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of June, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 950 yuan / ton on May 24, and 950 yuan / ton on May 28. The price of ammonium sulfate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate was stable, and the market of ammonium sulfate was good. By the end of the week, the mainstream ex factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was 920-980 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was 880-950 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was 820-880 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast was 850-950 yuan / ton. The price of domestic ammonium sulfate is about 950 yuan / ton, and the demand is good.

This week, compound fertilizer raw materials continue to rise, compound fertilizer prices will increase. Due to the increase of cost, the pressure of compound fertilizer enterprises increases. With the increase of fertilizer use, the market atmosphere gradually improved and the demand for ammonium sulfate increased.

3、 Future forecast

Business community ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate trading atmosphere is good, downstream demand follow-up increase. The supply of domestic ammonium sulfate is tight and the price is rising gradually. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, this week’s domestic propylene (Shandong) market was mainly stable in the early stage, and declined at the weekend. At the beginning of the week, the price was 8114 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price was 8043 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.88%; On May 25 and 26, the weekly high price was 8119 yuan / ton, with a weekly amplitude of 0.93%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business association, the propylene price in Shandong continued to rise in the first ten days of April, fell sharply in the last ten days, and remained stable at the end of the month. During the May Day period, the first two days continued to be stable. From the 3rd to the 7th, the daily price rose by about 50 yuan / ton. From the 9th, the price was mainly stable. After a small rise on the 13th, the price was stabilized again. From the 17th, the daily price began to decline by 50 yuan / ton. On the 19th and 20th, the price of propylene dropped by about 100 yuan / ton. From the 23rd, the price of propylene rose by 50 yuan / ton. From the 25th, the price continued to stabilize. On the 27th, the price of individual manufacturers dropped slightly, Today, the whole line finally dropped slightly. The current market transaction is between 8000-8200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8000 yuan / ton. On May 27, the US propylene price remained stable, while the Asian propylene price fell, which had a small negative impact on the propylene market. Propylene market inventory is not much, part of the unit maintenance is not over, no external quotation.

Recently, the international crude oil market has witnessed constant events, and the price fluctuates. The crude oil price rose slightly on May 27, which has limited impact on the propylene market.

This week, PP prices rose slightly and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. The futures market was general, with little impact on propylene.

This week, the price of acrylic acid remained stable, unchanged, and had no impact on propylene.

This week, the market of propylene oxide showed a ladder like decline, with a weekly decline of 6.07%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market this week after a small downward stable, weekly decline of 1.20%, little impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price showed a double peak trend, with no weekly rise or fall, and the weekly amplitude was 0.45%, which had limited impact on the propylene market.

This week, the price of isooctanol fell after rising, with a weekly increase of 0.23% and a weekly amplitude of 1.13%. The impact on propylene was also limited.

Isopropanol prices continued to fall sharply this week, with a weekly drop of 8.94%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

This week, the market price of phenol in East China also showed a step-by-step decline, with a weekly decline of 3.49%, which had a small inhibitory effect on propylene.

This week, the quotation of acetone manufacturers in East China market dropped sharply and then stabilized, with a weekly decline of 11.45%, which also has a great effect on propylene suppression.

This week, the market price of acrylonitrile rose slightly and then fell, with a weekly decline of 0.14% and a weekly amplitude of 0.28%, which had little impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analyst of business society Chemical Branch said: Overall, domestic inventory is still small, some units are overhauled, enterprises suspend quotation, crude oil market rises slightly, some downstream units resume work slightly, the market is stable or empty, some downstream downtrend is obvious, propylene is expected to continue to fall slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of May 25, the reference price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16900 yuan / ton, compared with the reference price of 18066 yuan / ton on May 14, the average price was reduced by 1166 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.46% on May 10; Compared with May 1 (reference price 18100 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 1200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.63%.

Starting from late May, the domestic propylene glycol market continued to decline and entered the end of the month. In terms of raw materials, the loose market of propylene oxide weakened the support of propylene glycol. In addition, due to the continuous downward impact, the overall trading atmosphere of the market was weak, the transaction orders were general, and the downstream demand was just needed, so the purchasing was cautious. In terms of exports, at present, the export orders of propylene glycol have also decreased, and the support of favorable export has also weakened. Under the weak support of many parties, the domestic propylene glycol ex factory price was lowered again on the 24th and 25th, with a reduction range of 300-400 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 25th, the reference price of propylene glycol in Shandong is about 16600-17000 yuan / ton, that in South China is about 17000-17400 yuan / ton, and that in East China is about 16900-17200 yuan / ton.

Upstream, in late May, the domestic propylene oxide market fell first and then stabilized. Since the 17th, the propylene oxide market has been weak, and the purchasing attitude of the middle and lower reaches is cautious. With the sharp reduction of the price, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm has increased, and the market delivery has improved. With the easing of the inventory pressure of the representative factory, the price has stopped falling and stabilized. At present, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is general, but there is no big pressure on the factory inventory. The supply and demand game, and the market is temporarily stable. Wait and see on the 25th, The mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 17300-17600 yuan / ton.

Bad news accounts for more, propylene glycol market is weak and stable, there are still downside risks

At present, from the market performance at the end of the month, the performance of domestic propylene glycol in raw materials and demand is relatively weak, the market trading atmosphere is also general, and the short-term factors to boost the market are not clear. Therefore, the propylene glycol analysts of the business community believe that the domestic propylene glycol market will maintain weak operation in the near days of the end of the month, There is a risk that the market’s high-end quotation will continue to decline.

Domestic PTA futures prices rebounded slightly. As of May 25, the average price in the spot market was 4685 yuan / ton, up 1.36% over the previous trading day and 31.08% over the same period last year. The main futures 2109 closed at 4728 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 2.16%.

In the middle of May, with the restart of early maintenance equipment, PTA supply showed an upward trend. In terms of inventory, according to statistics, as of May 20, PTA social inventory has declined to 2.7813 million tons, 2.68 percentage points lower than that of last week. Although there is a downward trend, the decline is slightly narrower than that of last week. But recently, Fuhai’s 4.5 million ton plant took off and dropped to 80% on the 20th, and the 2.5 million ton plant of Hengli No.5 is expected to be overhauled in early June for two weeks. At the same time, the test run of Yisheng new material new plant is delayed, boosting the PTA price in the short term. It is reported that due to the adjustment of plant load, Yisheng contract reduced by 50% in June and Hengli supply reduced by 40% in June.

In addition, recent crude oil continued to rebound, driving PTA cost center upward. On May 25, international oil prices rose slightly. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was US $66.07/barrel, up US $0.02. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 68.65 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.19 U.S. dollars. Affected by this, the PX market was boosted. As of the 25th, the Asian PX FOB price in South Korea was $838 / T, and the CFR price in China was $858 / T.

Downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester consolidation, production and marketing is tepid. By the 25th, the overall polyester operating rate was around 89%. In terms of production and marketing, the production and marketing of mainstream factories are basically concentrated at about 30% – 50%, and the production and marketing of individual factories are better, reaching about 90%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 11-24 days, of which POY inventory is 8-11 days, FDY inventory is around 11-15 days, and DTY inventory is about 14-27 days. Due to the stronger cost, polyester factory has the intention to raise the price.

Xia Ting, an analyst at business news agency, believes that PTA prices will rise in the short term due to load reduction, maintenance expectation and rising crude oil. However, the regulatory level will stabilize the price and guarantee the supply, and the bulk commodity market will cool down as a whole. Considering that the downstream demand is tired, or it will restrict PTA’s rebound space, it is expected that PTA prices will remain volatile by the end of the month, but the increase will not be too big.