1、 Price trend

Toluene prices rose this week, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On May 30, the price of toluene was 5800 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (June 6) was 5841 yuan / ton, up 41 yuan / ton, or 0.7% compared with last week; It was up 59.59% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The peripheral news was positive, boosting toluene prices higher, but downstream demand followed up weak, limiting gains. In terms of external market, as of June 4, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was 761 USD / T, up 21 USD / T, or 2.84% in the week, compared with May 28 on the same month; The price of toluene imported from East China was US $773 / T, up $11 / T, or 1.44% in the week, on May 28.

On the crude oil side, the United States entered the peak driving travel season, and the demand for gasoline has obviously increased. And opec+ conference decided to maintain the gradual increase plan unchanged. The outlook for the crude oil market is good, with oil prices rocketing this week. Brent rose $1.175/barrel this week, or 1.69 percent, on May 28; WTI rose $3.29/barrel, or 4.98 percent.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell in shock, with domestic products of 13250 yuan / ton, down 6.69% compared with last week, up 16.91% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX price rose this week, with the price of 6500 yuan / ton, up 1.56% compared with last week, and 58.54% year on year. Asia closed at $830-832 / T FOB Korea and $848-850 / T CFR China as of June 4.

3、 Post market forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, supporting the price of toluene; The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. In general, the price of toluene in the short term is mainly consolidation. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of blending price of crude oil and gasoline, the maintenance of toluene plant, the arrival volume of toluene in the later period and the influence of downstream demand on the price of toluene.