According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of January 6, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6800.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Monday.

Acrylic acid market is mainly stable this week. This week, the price of raw propylene was largely stable and slightly volatile, with limited impact on cost. The industry’s operating rate rose slightly compared with the previous period. Downstream procurement was dominated by demand. The enthusiasm for inquiry was improved, and the market atmosphere was improved. The focus of acrylic market negotiations was not volatile.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market was stable and slightly moved this week, maintaining overall stability. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7244 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7250 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.08%.

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the current cost is still supported, the market atmosphere has warmed up, and the transaction is just in demand. It is expected that the acrylic market will stabilize in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the downstream stock.

In 2022, the MTBE market will “hit a new high”, and the whole line will become red. It will rise first and then fall. The overall rise will reach the highest point of the year in the middle of the year. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic MTBE producers will be 5716 yuan/ton on January 1, 2022, and 6100 yuan/ton on December 31, with an overall increase of 6.72%. The lowest point of the price appeared at the beginning of the year, and the highest point appeared at the end of the second quarter, June 15, at 8825 yuan/ton. The maximum amplitude of the year was 54.39%. In 2022, the highest MTBE price will reach an eight year high.

The MTBE market in 2022 is generally divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the first quarter, with the price rising rapidly unilaterally; The second stage is the second quarter, in which the price market first fluctuates and then rises rapidly; The third stage is from the beginning of the third quarter to the end of the third quarter, where the price fluctuates and falls.

Trend chart of average price of domestic MTBE producers in Shandong Province in 2022:

In the first stage, the domestic MTBE market rose significantly after the Lunar New Year holiday. During the festival, supported by the market’s concern about the shutdown of the Permian Basin, the largest shale oil producing area, caused by the snowstorm and severe cold weather in the United States, and the continuation of geopolitical tensions and other positive factors, the international oil price once surged to 93.27 dollars per barrel, hitting a new high for more than seven years. The international oil price rose sharply, giving strong support to the MTBE market. Boosted by the surge in crude oil and post holiday demand, gasoline prices also showed a significant increase compared with the pre holiday period. The sales of gasoline itself improved gradually, and the demand for raw material MTBE increased along with it. In February, affected by the Winter Olympic Games, some devices in Shandong Province were parked again. There were 7 enterprises in the area in parking, and the supply dropped sharply. Supported by the continuous rise of crude oil and gasoline, the market mentality has improved. In addition, the demand has increased, and businesses have actively followed the trend. In most regions, the price has risen to above the 7000 yuan/ton mark again. In March, the domestic MTBE market showed a “M” trend, showing a high and volatile trend. Crude oil is still at a high level, giving strong support to the market; Downstream demand increases, and business sales improve.

In the second stage, in April, the domestic MTBE market rose and fell with each other, and the transactions were different. Before the Tomb Sweeping Day, prices in various regions fell to low levels and transactions were light. The transportation and demand in some parts of the north have recovered. During the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday in Shandong, the demand has increased. The shipment of merchants has gradually improved. In addition, some factories in the area have stopped in succession. The overall supply is not much, and individual merchants have risen slightly. In May, the domestic MTBE market went up all the way, with an obvious upward trend. Macroscopically, crude oil is still at a high level, supporting the market mentality. On the other hand, there are still export orders in China, which leads to limited domestic spot resources, tight goods and rising prices, and merchants are actively rising. At the same time, the price of gasoline has risen, and the operating rate has further improved. The demand for raw materials has increased moderately, giving the market some demand support. In June, the domestic MTBE market fluctuated at a high level, following the crude oil market. The domestic MTBE market is still rising, and the rising trend is slowing down. The specific reasons are as follows: although crude oil is rising and falling, the price is still at a high level, which gives the market some psychological support; Gasoline prices continued to rise, with good overall demand; The temporary shutdown of major refinery units in some areas has greatly reduced the spot supply in the area, and the merchants are willing to push up again.

In the third stage, the domestic MTBE market declined significantly in July due to the low crude oil price shock. Affected by the sharp decline of crude oil, the market is pessimistic. Affected by the low price of crude oil market and sluggish demand, the domestic MTBE market in August September settled at a low price. After the National Day holiday, the MTBE market rose by a narrow margin. However, with the low price shock of crude oil and the sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel, the MTBE market turned upside down and went down unilaterally. By the end of the month, although there was a slight recovery, the overall market was still lower. In November, as the early MTBE market price fell to a low level, downstream businesses began to replenish at a low level. At the same time, export negotiations increased, foreign demand increased, and the MTBE market atmosphere became warmer. In addition, crude oil and gasoline rose continuously, and many enterprises raised their factory quotations to 7200 yuan/ton. In December, the crude oil continued to fall deeply, and the gasoline market also went down step by step. The market was pessimistic, and downstream businesses had low purchasing intentions. In addition, some logistics and transportation are restricted, the overall market attention is low, and merchants’ sales are blocked, so they have no choice but to adjust step by step. The price once fell to the low level at the end of January this year. In addition to the low demand, as some manufacturers such as Debao Road, Chengtai New Energy and Xinxin Park have started construction, the supply has increased, which also puts some pressure on the market.

From the perspective of 2022, MTBE is largely affected by crude oil and generally affected by supply and demand. Looking forward to 2023, the oil market will face macro pressure and economic recession cycle constraints. It also faces the game between the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, there are risks of Russian production decline and OEPC+production reduction. On the demand side, the macro cycle is suppressed, the supply and demand are depressed, and the demand growth in Asia is also supported. The oil market is subject to macro and micro multi empty influence, so it is more likely to maintain a wide range of shocks. Focus on: supply side, Russian output and export decline; Demand side, the process and time node of China’s recovery. To sum up, there is still some expectation of replenishment in the gasoline market before the Spring Festival holiday. Although MTBE manufacturers have no shipping pressure for the time being, they still focus on maintaining a reasonable low inventory before the Spring Festival holiday, and ensuring the shipping rhythm is the primary task. In the short term, the market tends to fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to rise this week. On December 30, the average market price in East China was 18800.00 yuan/ton, 4.06% higher than the price of 18066.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and 8.67% higher than the beginning of the month.

In the week, the TDI market was sorted up, the downstream still made inquiries on demand, followed up slowly, the supply side support was strong, the supplier’s multiple sets of TDI devices were overhauled, the market spot filling was slow, the trade market was bullish atmosphere was strong, the supplier’s offer rose, the market price was hard to find, the supplier led TDI price continued to move up, as of the 30th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China was about 18500-18600 yuan/ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods was 18800-19000 yuan/ton, Negotiate based on actual orders.

The upstream toluene market declined weakly, and the price trend continued to fall. As of December 30, the domestic average price of toluene was about 5920.00 yuan/ton, an overall decline of 4.67% compared with 6210.00 yuan/ton on December 24. The crude oil price rose first and then fell, the raw material support was weak, the downstream procurement was active and low, the demand performance was weak, the trading atmosphere in the market was light, and the focus of the toluene market fell.

In the future market analysis, TDI data engineers of the business agency believe that the current TDI market spot filling is slow, the supplier support is good, the trade market supply is tight, and the offer is high and firm. Although the downstream demand is weak, the follow-up is weak, and the supplier market occupies a dominant position, in the short term, the TDI market is strong, and the specific attention is paid to the downstream follow-up.

The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated

According to the data of the business community, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4058.33 yuan/ton on December 29, basically unchanged from the previous trading day.

On December 29, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the external implementation price range of spot prices of mainstream manufacturers in East China was 3900-4110 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market was basically stable, and the spot external executive price range of mainstream manufacturers in East China was 4050 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in North China market was basically stable, and the spot external executive price of mainstream manufacturers in North China remained 4050 yuan/ton.

Enhancement of glycol long short game

Bad factors:

1. Supply side: In December, a new unit was put into operation, and the domestic supply pressure of ethylene glycol increased gradually. In terms of devices, the 300000 ton Tongliao Jinmei device has been put into operation and restarted recently, and the device was shut down in early December; The 300000 ton unit of Shanxi Meijin was shut down for some reason in the early stage, and has been restarted in the middle and late December. At present, it is running at half load; The 300000 ton unit of Shanxi Woneng has been restarted recently, and the load is gradually increasing. The unit was shut down in late October; The 800000t/a EO/EG new unit of Hainan Refining&Chemical is planned to be put into production at the end of December; A new set of 1 million ton/year MEG unit in Lianyungang was started on December 3, with the current load of about 80%. In terms of shutdown, on December 7, the 300000 ton unit of Yangzi Petrochemical stopped due to upstream unit failure, and the restart time is to be determined. On the whole, the domestic unit capacity has been released, and the domestic operating rate is about 59%.

2. Inventory: The port inventory rebounded in December. The MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China reached a high of 980,000 tons in the month. On the 26th, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was 891,400 tons, still higher than that in November.

3. Weak downstream demand: public health factors are superimposed near the holidays, the terminal weaving factory is running at a reduced production rate, the polyester start-up load is not high, and the demand for ethylene glycol may be relatively low. At present, the operating load of polyester is reduced to a low level. Recently, the short-term terminal factory is seriously short of work, and the starting load of the weaving industry has dropped significantly again.

Favorable factors:

1. Import and export data: The import volume of ethylene glycol in November was 546300 tons, down 9.26% month on month and 26.46% year on year; In November, the export volume of ethylene glycol was 3400 tons, up 129.17% month on month and 673.56% year on year.

2. The price of crude oil rebounded: at the cost end, the center of gravity of the oil price moved upward. The current price of ethylene glycol is low, and the influence of cost factors on the price is amplified.

in summary:

As a whole, ethylene glycol is in the stage of strong supply and weak demand, and the future market is mainly weak and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of the business cooperative, the market price of thermal phosphoric acid fell slightly this week. As of December 25, the average price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China was 9333 yuan/ton, which was 0.36% lower than the average price of 9300 yuan/ton on December 19.

Mainstream market:

As of December 25, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan was about 9000-9300 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 9300 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 9000-9800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation of 85% wet process phosphoric acid is about 8600-9600 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

This week, the focus of the domestic market of raw material yellow phosphorus was downward, the overall market trading and investment situation was average, and the logistics in some regions was blocked. Downstream inquiries have increased, but the delivery of goods is more cautious. Most enterprises do not make external quotations and mainly supply early orders. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 34000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorous ore, the domestic phosphorous ore market was generally stable this week, the information on the site was relatively calm, the overall change in the supply and demand side was small, the supply side was still tight, and the demand side just needed to purchase. Near the end of the year, some mining areas in China will stop mining, and the orders for next year will mainly be pre received. The quotation will also continue to the beginning of next year. As of December 25, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate rock is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1150-1250 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

The downstream demand of phosphoric acid is general this week, and the market is mainly wait-and-see, with few deals on the market. In the near future, the trend of phosphoric acid raw materials is weak, and the enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation is weakened. The industry is mainly cautious in operation.

3、 Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believe that the phosphoric acid market trend has slightly declined due to the fall in the price of raw yellow phosphorus and the weakening of cost support. Downstream purchase on demand and prepare a small amount of goods. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be stable in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the trend of raw materials and the change of demand side.

The price of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable this week

According to the data of the business community, as of December 16, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 12250 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of 12250 yuan/ton on December 9. The cost is stabilizing, and the price of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable this week.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of fluorite was 3387.50 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the price of 3375 yuan/ton on December 9, and up 2.85% from the price of 3293.75 yuan/ton on December 1; The price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week. As of December 16, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12757.14 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 12757.14 yuan/ton on December 9, and rose 0.22% compared with the price of 12728.57 yuan/ton on December 1. This week, the price of raw material fluorite rose in shock, the price of hydrofluoric acid remained at a high level, the price of raw materials rose, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and aluminum fluoride gained momentum.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts from the aluminum fluoride industry of the business community believe that: the price of raw material fluorite rose this week, the price of hydrofluoric acid was strong and temporarily stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the momentum for aluminum fluoride to rise was strong. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will rise in the future.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market rose slightly this week, from 301.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 313.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 3.87%. A year-on-year drop of 50.53%. On December 18, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 48.77, unchanged from yesterday, 74.07% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and 54.73% higher than the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market fluctuated and rose, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers rose slightly this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose in a narrow range, with the sulfur price rising from 1513.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1543.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.98%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 21.12% year on year. The upstream market rose in shock and cost support increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market was consolidated at a high level, with the market price of 12757.14 yuan/ton. It was 0.29% higher than the same period last year. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream market was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 15933.33 yuan/ton. A year-on-year drop of 23.03%. Downstream market fluctuates with each other, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In late December, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream sulfur market has been surging recently, and the cost support has increased. Downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, while titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate market declined slightly. Downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price will rise mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite was weak this week. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2366.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2350.00 yuan/ton, a small drop of 0.70%.

The overall performance of domestic sodium metabisulfite market was average this week. The price range of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite was 2300-2450 yuan/ton, and most prices were concentrated around 2350 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes orders from old customers.

Since the beginning of December, the price of domestic soda ash has risen by 0.08%, and the price of sulfur has risen by 8.18%. The price of raw materials has recovered slightly after stabilizing. The small recovery of raw material costs will form a certain support for the future market price of sodium metabisulfite.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the upstream raw material cost has stopped falling and picked up slightly, and the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price will also follow the overall weakness of the cost and become stable.

This week (12.5-9), the domestic adipic acid market stopped falling. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 9, the increase this week was 0.62%, and the market trading center moved up in a narrow range. At present, the market price range of adipic acid is 9400-9700 yuan/ton. The adipic acid market remained deadlocked due to the weak cost and weak supply and demand.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week, with both upstream and downstream products falling, especially the downstream PA66 falling by 3.26%. Adipic acid stopped falling and rose slightly.

Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline

Pure benzene continued its downward trend this week. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. The decline this week was 0.81%, slowing down. On the one hand, the market is still sluggish. On the other hand, the supply will only increase, and the newly put into operation units will release the supply increment, and the arrival of ships and cargoes at the port will be concentrated, and the supply of cargoes at the port will be reduced. Near the weekend, the price of East China pure benzene is between 6350-6450 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that they are positively correlated and have a highly consistent trend. However, the curve opening has expanded recently, mainly because adipic acid has stopped falling slightly and pure benzene is still in the downward channel.

Supply side: Start up and stabilize the accumulated warehouse of the manufacturer

From the perspective of market supply: in terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid this week did not change much compared with last week, about 5-60%. The whole line of Hualu and Haili is overhauled. Liaohua, Huafeng and Shenmajun single line maintenance. In addition, the daily profit decreased slightly this week. The supply is kept at a low level, and the manufacturer mainly maintains low load and no pressure on the warehouse.

Demand side: weak downstream demand

The downstream of adipic acid just needs to be supported, the market is weak, and the early inventory is mainly digested. The downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and sporadic just needs to make up orders to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, PA66 rose or fell by 3.26% this week. The downstream still resisted the high price goods, and the shipping speed slowed down. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 22250 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, on the cost side, crude oil shocks downward, pure benzene is weak, and the cost side is still empty. The supply side has little change, and it is forced by low demand to maintain low load operation. The market continues to go out of stock, and there is little supply pressure in the near future. The demand side remained depressed, which is the most important reason why adipic acid is difficult to get out of the predicament. It is expected to maintain the off-season level in the short term, which is difficult to support. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and when the upstream pure benzene will turn.

From December 2 to December 9, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose slightly, at 6566.67 yuan/ton last weekend, and 6583.33 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.25%.

Main domestic market price of hydrogenated benzene this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Market. Price on December 2. Price on December 9./Rise and fall

East China./6650 ～ 6700./6550 ～ 6600./- 100

Shandong region./6400~6450/. 6400~6450/-

Crude oil: Some economic data in the United States outperformed expectations, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppressed the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil fell sharply. International crude oil futures closed lower on December 8. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 71.46 US dollars/barrel, down 0.55 US dollars or 0.76%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 76.15 dollars/barrel, down 1.02 dollars or 1.32%. The market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere, and the oil market was dragged down by the fear of economic recession. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week will put pressure on oil prices and weaken energy demand.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date./Adjusted Price./Adjusted Amount

November 2./7200./- 250

November 4./7000./- 200

November 22./6800./- 200

November 29./6500./- 300

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene will be reduced by 300 yuan/ton on November 29, 2022, and the current price is 6500 yuan/ton.

Other enterprise quotations: Chambroad Petrochemical quoted 6550 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6453 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, slightly recovered in late August and early September, and fell continuously in October and November.

In terms of pure benzene, the trend of crude oil in the first half of this week was somewhat volatile, and the downstream styrene was stronger. In addition, the downstream purchasing sentiment was boosted after the continuous decline of pure benzene. Under the triple influence, the price of pure benzene rose slightly by about 50 yuan/ton. In the second half of the week, as the crude oil weakened again and the downstream styrene market was weak, the overall market sentiment declined, and the price of pure benzene weakened again slightly, down about 50-75 yuan/ton. The downstream gas buying also declined. Overall, the crude oil price fell nearly 10% this week, which had a great impact on the market. However, the recent supply of pure benzene was relatively sufficient, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong. The price of pure benzene continued to weaken slightly, and the price of hydrogenated benzene basically fluctuated with that of pure benzene, Downward trend is dominant this week. In the future market, the business community thinks that the overall trend of crude oil is volatile, the guidance for pure benzene is not obvious, and the downstream demand is slightly weak. However, the supply of pure benzene is sufficient at present, and the short-term trend of pure benzene is expected to be weak. In the future market, the focus is on the impact of the fluctuations of crude oil and styrene on the pure benzene market