In 2022, the MTBE market will “hit a new high”, and the whole line will become red. It will rise first and then fall. The overall rise will reach the highest point of the year in the middle of the year. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic MTBE producers will be 5716 yuan/ton on January 1, 2022, and 6100 yuan/ton on December 31, with an overall increase of 6.72%. The lowest point of the price appeared at the beginning of the year, and the highest point appeared at the end of the second quarter, June 15, at 8825 yuan/ton. The maximum amplitude of the year was 54.39%. In 2022, the highest MTBE price will reach an eight year high.

The MTBE market in 2022 is generally divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the first quarter, with the price rising rapidly unilaterally; The second stage is the second quarter, in which the price market first fluctuates and then rises rapidly; The third stage is from the beginning of the third quarter to the end of the third quarter, where the price fluctuates and falls.

Trend chart of average price of domestic MTBE producers in Shandong Province in 2022:

In the first stage, the domestic MTBE market rose significantly after the Lunar New Year holiday. During the festival, supported by the market’s concern about the shutdown of the Permian Basin, the largest shale oil producing area, caused by the snowstorm and severe cold weather in the United States, and the continuation of geopolitical tensions and other positive factors, the international oil price once surged to 93.27 dollars per barrel, hitting a new high for more than seven years. The international oil price rose sharply, giving strong support to the MTBE market. Boosted by the surge in crude oil and post holiday demand, gasoline prices also showed a significant increase compared with the pre holiday period. The sales of gasoline itself improved gradually, and the demand for raw material MTBE increased along with it. In February, affected by the Winter Olympic Games, some devices in Shandong Province were parked again. There were 7 enterprises in the area in parking, and the supply dropped sharply. Supported by the continuous rise of crude oil and gasoline, the market mentality has improved. In addition, the demand has increased, and businesses have actively followed the trend. In most regions, the price has risen to above the 7000 yuan/ton mark again. In March, the domestic MTBE market showed a “M” trend, showing a high and volatile trend. Crude oil is still at a high level, giving strong support to the market; Downstream demand increases, and business sales improve.

In the second stage, in April, the domestic MTBE market rose and fell with each other, and the transactions were different. Before the Tomb Sweeping Day, prices in various regions fell to low levels and transactions were light. The transportation and demand in some parts of the north have recovered. During the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday in Shandong, the demand has increased. The shipment of merchants has gradually improved. In addition, some factories in the area have stopped in succession. The overall supply is not much, and individual merchants have risen slightly. In May, the domestic MTBE market went up all the way, with an obvious upward trend. Macroscopically, crude oil is still at a high level, supporting the market mentality. On the other hand, there are still export orders in China, which leads to limited domestic spot resources, tight goods and rising prices, and merchants are actively rising. At the same time, the price of gasoline has risen, and the operating rate has further improved. The demand for raw materials has increased moderately, giving the market some demand support. In June, the domestic MTBE market fluctuated at a high level, following the crude oil market. The domestic MTBE market is still rising, and the rising trend is slowing down. The specific reasons are as follows: although crude oil is rising and falling, the price is still at a high level, which gives the market some psychological support; Gasoline prices continued to rise, with good overall demand; The temporary shutdown of major refinery units in some areas has greatly reduced the spot supply in the area, and the merchants are willing to push up again.

In the third stage, the domestic MTBE market declined significantly in July due to the low crude oil price shock. Affected by the sharp decline of crude oil, the market is pessimistic. Affected by the low price of crude oil market and sluggish demand, the domestic MTBE market in August September settled at a low price. After the National Day holiday, the MTBE market rose by a narrow margin. However, with the low price shock of crude oil and the sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel, the MTBE market turned upside down and went down unilaterally. By the end of the month, although there was a slight recovery, the overall market was still lower. In November, as the early MTBE market price fell to a low level, downstream businesses began to replenish at a low level. At the same time, export negotiations increased, foreign demand increased, and the MTBE market atmosphere became warmer. In addition, crude oil and gasoline rose continuously, and many enterprises raised their factory quotations to 7200 yuan/ton. In December, the crude oil continued to fall deeply, and the gasoline market also went down step by step. The market was pessimistic, and downstream businesses had low purchasing intentions. In addition, some logistics and transportation are restricted, the overall market attention is low, and merchants’ sales are blocked, so they have no choice but to adjust step by step. The price once fell to the low level at the end of January this year. In addition to the low demand, as some manufacturers such as Debao Road, Chengtai New Energy and Xinxin Park have started construction, the supply has increased, which also puts some pressure on the market.

From the perspective of 2022, MTBE is largely affected by crude oil and generally affected by supply and demand. Looking forward to 2023, the oil market will face macro pressure and economic recession cycle constraints. It also faces the game between the supply and demand sides. On the supply side, there are risks of Russian production decline and OEPC+production reduction. On the demand side, the macro cycle is suppressed, the supply and demand are depressed, and the demand growth in Asia is also supported. The oil market is subject to macro and micro multi empty influence, so it is more likely to maintain a wide range of shocks. Focus on: supply side, Russian output and export decline; Demand side, the process and time node of China’s recovery. To sum up, there is still some expectation of replenishment in the gasoline market before the Spring Festival holiday. Although MTBE manufacturers have no shipping pressure for the time being, they still focus on maintaining a reasonable low inventory before the Spring Festival holiday, and ensuring the shipping rhythm is the primary task. In the short term, the market tends to fluctuate slightly.