This week (12.5-9), the domestic adipic acid market stopped falling. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 9, the increase this week was 0.62%, and the market trading center moved up in a narrow range. At present, the market price range of adipic acid is 9400-9700 yuan/ton. The adipic acid market remained deadlocked due to the weak cost and weak supply and demand.
Industrial chain
The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week, with both upstream and downstream products falling, especially the downstream PA66 falling by 3.26%. Adipic acid stopped falling and rose slightly.
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Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline
Pure benzene continued its downward trend this week. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. The decline this week was 0.81%, slowing down. On the one hand, the market is still sluggish. On the other hand, the supply will only increase, and the newly put into operation units will release the supply increment, and the arrival of ships and cargoes at the port will be concentrated, and the supply of cargoes at the port will be reduced. Near the weekend, the price of East China pure benzene is between 6350-6450 yuan/ton.
It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that they are positively correlated and have a highly consistent trend. However, the curve opening has expanded recently, mainly because adipic acid has stopped falling slightly and pure benzene is still in the downward channel.
Supply side: Start up and stabilize the accumulated warehouse of the manufacturer
From the perspective of market supply: in terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid this week did not change much compared with last week, about 5-60%. The whole line of Hualu and Haili is overhauled. Liaohua, Huafeng and Shenmajun single line maintenance. In addition, the daily profit decreased slightly this week. The supply is kept at a low level, and the manufacturer mainly maintains low load and no pressure on the warehouse.
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Demand side: weak downstream demand
The downstream of adipic acid just needs to be supported, the market is weak, and the early inventory is mainly digested. The downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and sporadic just needs to make up orders to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, PA66 rose or fell by 3.26% this week. The downstream still resisted the high price goods, and the shipping speed slowed down. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 22250 yuan/ton.
Future outlook
The business community believes that, on the cost side, crude oil shocks downward, pure benzene is weak, and the cost side is still empty. The supply side has little change, and it is forced by low demand to maintain low load operation. The market continues to go out of stock, and there is little supply pressure in the near future. The demand side remained depressed, which is the most important reason why adipic acid is difficult to get out of the predicament. It is expected to maintain the off-season level in the short term, which is difficult to support. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and when the upstream pure benzene will turn.
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