According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic first class industrial grade potassium nitrate quotation at the beginning of the week was 5480.00 yuan / ton, while that of the first class domestic industrial grade product was 5680.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 3.65%, and the current price rose 15.45% on a month basis, and the current price rose 35.64% year on year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate moved upward, with the market supply continuously short, most of which were concentrated in the hands of large traders, covering the market and sparing sales, and the overall market transaction was slow. The supply and demand are unbalanced, the potassium nitrate market continues to rise, and the price is constantly rising. According to statistics of business agency: the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 5200-5900 yuan / ton this week (quotation is for reference only), and different prices are offered according to the purchase situation.

Recently, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride was vibrated and consolidated: on July 23, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The factory offer is about 2450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On July 23, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. will not offer any price for potassium chloride. In recent years, the market of potassium chloride continued to be high and strong, with imported potassium supply slightly supplemented, but large traders released less goods, and it is expected to be mainly high consolidation in the later period.

In the near future, the domestic potash market has slightly increased in supply, traders are shipping a small amount, and downstream on demand procurement. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will mainly increase in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be seen（ The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of business society. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.

International oil prices fell more than 6% in the previous trading day, and rose significantly on the 20th. The analysis points out that although the decision of major oil producing countries to increase production worries the market, it is expected that with the recovery of global demand, the supply and demand gap will still exist, and the international oil price is expected to continue to be supported.

As of the close of the 20th, the price of light crude oil for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1, or 1.51%, to close at $67.42 a barrel; London Brent crude for September delivery rose $0.73, or 1.06%, to $69.35 a barrel.

Affected by the adjustment of production by major oil producing countries and market concerns about the epidemic situation, oil prices in New York and London Brent fell sharply by 7.51% and 6.75% on the 19th, respectively, the biggest one-day drop since September 8 last year and March 18 this year.

The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non OPEC oil producing countries said on the 18th that they would extend the current production reduction agreement, which was originally due to expire in April 2022, to the end of 2022, and increase the average daily output by 400000 barrels from August this year. In addition, the meeting also decided to increase the production baseline of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and Iraq from May 2022, with a total increase of 1.632 million barrels per day. This has aroused market concern under the current epidemic situation.

However, analysts believe that the gradual increase in production agreements reached by major oil producing countries will not lead to a significant increase in market supply in the short term, but will help stabilize market expectations. The biggest variable facing the future oil price is still the trend of global epidemic, and the market may be more sensitive to this.

Helioma Croft, head of global commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, believes that the market can absorb the increase of 400000 barrels of daily crude oil supply per month. Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at German commercial bank, said that the agreement reached between OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries has solved internal differences, helped restore investor confidence and expectations, and is good for oil prices.

It is also pointed out that, from the perspective of supply and demand, although the market’s concern about the spread of the new coronavirus delta strain is increasing, global oil demand is still in the process of rapid recovery, and there is still a gap in oil supply in the short term, which is expected to continue to support oil prices.

OPEC said that with the acceleration of the new crown vaccination, the economy in most parts of the world is still recovering, there are obvious signs of growth in oil demand, and oil inventories in OECD countries are declining.

According to the prediction of the International Energy Agency, oil demand will rebound strongly in the second half of 2021, and the annual energy demand is expected to increase by 4.6%. Despite the gradual increase in supply from oil producing countries, the global oil market is still likely to face a daily average shortage of 1.5 million barrels in the second half of this year.

Affected by the impact of the epidemic, the international oil price fell to a negative value in April last year, and OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries also reached an agreement on reducing production in the same month, with an average of 9.7 million barrels per day. Since the implementation of the production reduction agreement in May last year, the international oil price has gradually picked up. In April this year, the major oil producing countries decided to gradually increase oil production from May. At present, the reduction rate is about 5.8 million barrels per day.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. This week, the factory quotations of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 4700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 266.67 yuan / ton, or 5.67%, 106 / 73% higher than the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market rose this week, with the commodity index of 130.13 on July 16.

Limit electricity and reduce production, calcium carbide in short supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 5000 yuan / ton, which was 300 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion quoted 4900 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which was 250 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping this weekend calcium carbide offer for 5000 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer increased by 250 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. Shenmu’s quotation this week is 1400 yuan / ton; This week’s quotation is 1450 yuan / ton; The price of bulk material is 1500 yuan / ton this week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices rose slightly this week. This week’s PVC quotation increased from 9000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 37.43%. This week, the price of PVC rose slightly, the market turned better, the maintenance of PVC was completed, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream calcium carbide increased. On the whole, this week’s PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The output of calcium carbide decreased, the downstream demand was better, and the market fluctuated slightly in the future

In late July, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market turned better and the demand increased. However, due to the power restriction in Inner Mongolia, the burden of calcium carbide enterprises is reduced, and the supply of calcium carbide falls short of demand. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in late July.

1、 Price data

As of July 18, the average factory price of domestic domestic refining and hydrotreating naphtha was 6920.00 yuan / ton, down 0.53% from 6956.60 yuan / ton on July 12. The actual transaction price of local refining naphtha was about 6800-7000 yuan / ton.

As of July 18, the average factory price of domestic straight run naphtha was 6795.00 yuan / ton, down 0.84% from 6852.50 yuan / ton on July 12. The actual transaction price of direct distillation naphtha was about 6700-6800 yuan / ton.

On July 18, the naphtha commodity index was 85.41, which was flat with yesterday, down 16.77% from 102.62 points (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and 102.20% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Naphtha prices fell slightly this week, and the refining market was weak this week, and downstream procurement was required.

Upstream: international crude oil prices fell, the Fed’s position was wobbling under high inflation, the CPI in June rose beyond expectations, and the market generally worried about the tightening of monetary policy caused by high inflation pressure; OPEC + policies were implemented, and the agreement on production increase was reached, and the market expected to increase supply; Under the severe trend of multi-national epidemic situation, the implementation of blockade measures to suppress fuel demand, etc.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of toluene fell this week, with the price of toluene at 5860 yuan / ton on July 11, and that of July 18 at 5780 yuan / T, down 80 yuan / ton from last week, or 1.37%. The price of mixed xylene fell this week, with the price of mixed xylene of 6000 yuan / ton on July 11, and that of 5920 yuan / ton on July 18, down 80 yuan / T, or 1.33% from last week. In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 6 commodities rising in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week (7.12-7.16) in 2021, with the top three commodities rising respectively as LNG (3.75%), power coal (2.29%), and liquefied gas (1.52%). There are 9 commodities falling on a month-on-month basis, with 1 commodity falling more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three products were coke (-5.26%), WTI crude oil (-3.90%), Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This week, the average rise and fall was -0.49 per cent.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent fluctuation of international crude oil prices, limited cost support of naphtha market, and slow release of terminal and aromatics demand have led to poor market activity. Downstream on demand procurement is the main, market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and it is expected that naphtha refining will be weak in the near future.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic POM market continued a positive trend in the first half of July, with the spot prices of various brands rising at a high level. As of July 16, the average offer price of the POM injection molding sample enterprises in the business community was about 17000 yuan / ton, up 4.72% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

POM upstream formaldehyde, enter July, Shandong formaldehyde Market High fell. The market of raw material methanol was slightly up, and the support for formaldehyde was acceptable. At present, affected by the rainy weather, the starting situation of plate factories in Shandong is general, the demand continues to be low, and the purchasing capacity is limited. At present, the atmosphere of Shandong formaldehyde trading market is relatively cold, the transaction is not good, the formaldehyde manufacturers are difficult to ship, and the focus of formaldehyde market is constantly moving down. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will fluctuate in the short term.

High upstream prices fell, POM cost side support weakened, and the main advantage in the first half of July was still supply side tightening. The delivery period of on-site orders is relatively extended, and the manufacturers mainly complete the prerequisite orders, while the on-site supply is gradually reduced. The inventory of traders decreased, the willingness to report high was clear, and some of them were reluctant to sell. Due to the impact of environmental protection policies such as short-term electricity, the industry load further reduced to 80%. The downstream enterprises still accept the passive follow-up replenishment due to the decrease of the source of goods when the cost pressure increases. The spot price of domestic POM is rising at a high level, and the reference price of Tianye Chemical M90 is about 16100 yuan / ton, with real order negotiation. Yuntianhua M90 ex factory reference price of 17900 yuan / ton, firm offer negotiation. The POM unit of Shenhua Ningmei coal works normally. The reference price of mc90 is about 17000 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. I heard that the on-site inquiry was much higher than the official price, and the price increased frequently.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in early July, the trend of domestic POM market rose at a high level. The price of upstream formaldehyde has fallen, and the cost support of POM has been weakened. Market supply is in short supply, and the supply side has a strong positive effect on the market. On the demand side, the terminal enterprises follow up passively to maintain production, and the merchants have a positive attitude. The resumption of some production lines in the later stage may alleviate the supply, but the current shortage situation is deep, so it is expected that the POM market will still be strong in the short term.

Trade name: titanium dioxide

Latest price (July 13): 21233.33 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on July 13, the domestic titanium dioxide market center moved down, and the overall price was weak. There is a strong wait-and-see mentality in the trading market, traders are more cautious in taking goods, mainly purchasing on demand, and the weak atmosphere is obvious. The price of raw materials decreased slightly, the quotation of some titanium dioxide manufacturers was loose, and the price range gradually widened. The new order transaction situation is general, mainly to deliver early orders. The actual transaction price shall be determined on a single basis. It is expected that the white powder market will be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, this week’s soda ash market was stable and small. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price was about 1902 yuan / ton, up 49.37% over the same period last year. On July 11, the commodity index of light soda ash was 97.54, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.24% compared with 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 54.46% compared with 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the price in East China is stable and small, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly high.

Upstream and demand: the turnover of upstream raw salt is good, the market price is slightly up, and it is expected that the finishing market of raw salt will mainly run in the later stage. The price of downstream glass rose slightly this week. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of glass rose slightly this week. The average price of glass was 35.35 yuan / square meter last Friday and 35.59 yuan / square meter this Friday. The price of glass rose within the week by 0.68%. In terms of different regions, in Shahe of North China, the recent situation of enterprises leaving the warehouse is better, the inventory of manufacturers is low, the supply of traders is not much, and the spot market price is rising. The overall trend of the market in South China is acceptable, with the focus of transaction moving up. Central China is in a good situation of outbound, and downstream rigid demand procurement is more active.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 27th week of 2021 (7.5-7.9), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling, and 3 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were caustic soda (0.95%) and PVC (0.14%); The average rise and fall this week was 0.22%.

Business analysts believe that: the domestic soda price is stable, the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable, and manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. The price of downstream glass is strong, but the high price of soda is still in a wait-and-see state. Overall, soda late market consolidation operation based, specific to the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate at the beginning of the week was 7090.00 yuan / ton, while the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate at the end of the week was 7190.00 yuan / ton, up 1.41%. The current price is up 6.68% month on month, and the current price is up 15.73% year on year.

Recently, the domestic potash market is rising. The supply of potash in the market is tight, and the price keeps rising. Most of the supply is concentrated in the hands of large-scale traders, who are reluctant to sell. Large domestic manufacturers resume production, but mainly deliver early orders. Potash continues to rise. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6650-7500 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers fluctuated: on July 9, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2450 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On July 9, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. did not offer potassium chloride for the time being. Recent potassium chloride market remains high consolidation, inventory tension, is expected to be high strong later.

Potash analysts from business news agency believe that the domestic potash fertilizer market is recovering production in the near future. Most of the imported potash sources are concentrated in the hands of traders, and the market supply is still tight. It is expected that the price of potash will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see（ The above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

Entering July, the propane market welcomed the rising market and made a good start at the beginning of the month. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of propane in Shandong was 4543.25 yuan / ton on July 1 and 4838.25 yuan / ton on July 6, with an increase of 6.49% during the period and 66.55% compared with the same period last year.

As of July 6, the mainstream propane prices in different regions of China are as follows:

region Specifications July 6th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4650-4800 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4550-4870 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4700-4900 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4640-4740 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4450-4906 yuan / ton

After entering July, Shandong propane market prices continued to rise. After the introduction of CP in July, propane and butane all rose sharply, and the high import cost brought obvious boost to the domestic market. The sharp rise of the international crude oil market has also brought good support to the market. Markets in the north and the South all rose to varying degrees. As of June 6, North China in the north market continued to push up, while Shandong remained stable in general and rose sporadically, while Northeast China mainly kept stable prices. In the South China market, prices have been rising steadily, and most of them are at a high level.

Saudi Aramco CP announced in July that propane and butane all rose. Propane was 620 US dollars / ton, up 90 US dollars / ton from last month; Butane is 620 US dollars / ton, up 95 US dollars / ton from last month.

On July 5, international oil prices rose. The US futures market was closed during the Independence Day holiday. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was 77.16 US dollars / barrel, up 0.99 US dollars or 1.3%. The negotiations between the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) reached a deadlock again, and the meeting was suddenly called to a halt. As soon as the news came out, oil prices rose sharply.

At present, although the northern market continues to rise, the increase is obviously narrower than that in the earlier stage. The inventory of refineries is mostly at a low level. In addition, the port price is high and firm, so the market is still good. The enthusiasm for entering the market is better under the fear of rising in the downstream. However, due to the influence of seasonal factors, the current propane market demand is weak, which brings some constraints to the rising market. It is expected that the propane market will rise first and then fall.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, in the first half of 2021, the price of domestic refined oil rose all the way. The price of domestic 92% gasoline reached 7981 yuan / ton, up 39.85%, up 61.32% year on year; The domestic 0 ᦇ diesel price was 6327 yuan / ton, up 30.08%, up 32.95% year on year. The main reason is that on the one hand, the international crude oil price has risen sharply, on the other hand, the domestic consumer demand has increased, and finally, the domestic policy is favorable for the price of refined oil, and the domestic refined oil price has risen sharply in the first half of the year.

In more than half of 2021, the retail price of refined oil in China experienced nine increases in the first half of the year, one decrease and two stalls. After offsetting the rise and fall, the domestic gasoline price increased by 1355 yuan / ton and the diesel price increased by 1405 yuan / ton. The domestic supply and demand situation is relatively stable, and the start-up of the local refining industry remains at a high level. Even though some units are overhauled one after another in the second quarter, the temperature is moderate, and the domestic travel situation is increasing, which supports the price of gasoline. In addition, the demand for agricultural summer harvest and outdoor infrastructure is high, so the price of diesel also rises correspondingly. The price trend of raw crude oil market rose sharply, supporting the sharp rise of domestic oil product prices.

Crude oil: international crude oil prices rose sharply in the first half of the year, with the closing price of WTI US crude oil at 72.98 at the end of June, reaching a two-year high. The favorable situation at both sides of supply and demand has become the main factor supporting the rise of international crude oil futures price. In the first quarter of 2021, while the scale of OPEC + production reduction remained basically unchanged, Saudi Arabia implemented additional production reduction again. In addition, the global epidemic situation was better controlled, the international vaccination was accelerated, and the demand for crude oil increased. In addition, during the period, the United States was affected by the cold wave, Saudi oil town was attacked and other special factors supported the international oil price, and the crude oil market price continued to rise. Although OPEC + reached an agreement to gradually increase production in the later stage, crude oil prices suffered a certain blow, OPEC and IEA both raised their crude oil demand expectations, which was good for supporting international oil prices. After that, as the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States relaxed the blockade, the peak of oil consumption in the United States in summer came, and the demand for crude oil increased significantly, which boosted the optimism of the market. Finally, the negotiations between the United States and Iran have not yet been reached, the increase of Iran’s crude oil export is expected to be further delayed, all kinds of favorable factors are superimposed to support the international oil price, the crude oil market price rises sharply, the domestic oil product market is supported, and the price rises sharply in the first half of the year.

The first quarter coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, and the domestic gasoline demand increased. In addition, the domestic epidemic situation was well controlled, which was good for the demand of diesel oil. The major refineries gradually increased the start-up of diesel oil, and the output increased relatively; In the second quarter, the overhaul and restart of some atmospheric and vacuum distillation units coexisted, but in the later period, the operation rate of the refinery rose, the supply side increased from where it was located, but the demand also increased correspondingly. In terms of gasoline demand, the domestic temperature is appropriate, the travel radius of the public has increased, and there is a certain demand for goods preparation and storage in the market. In terms of diesel oil, the summer harvest in northern China has started one after another, the agricultural oil consumption may increase gradually, the demand for diesel oil in engineering infrastructure, logistics and transportation industries continues to pick up, and the terminal demand for diesel oil has strong support. Positive demand superimposed, domestic oil prices continued to rise.

On the policy side: on the one hand, the increasing frequency of domestic tax inspection has led to the shortage of ticket carrying resources, and the difficulty and cost of main overseas procurement are high. On the other hand, on June 12, China imposed a consumption tax on imported light cycle, mixed aromatics and other oil blending raw materials, which has a huge impact on domestic low-cost invisible resources, and has formed a strong support for domestic diesel prices, which is affected by the favorable domestic policies, The market price of refined oil is rising.

In the first half of the year, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in domestic main refineries was about 78%. As of June 2021, the cumulative output of gasoline was 71.4262 million tons, up 4.44% year on year; The cumulative output of diesel oil was 92.2779 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.89%. In addition, the gasoline inventory of Shandong independent refineries has always maintained a low level, so the gasoline prices of various manufacturers continue to climb to the highest level in recent years.

On the whole, the global economy and demand are still expected to improve in the second half of the year. There is still room for international oil prices to rise. The recovery of major economies such as China, Europe and the United States supports crude oil prices. However, there are also great uncertainties in international crude oil prices, and the US Iraq talks are still concerned. In terms of domestic demand, the domestic economy is improving, and the impact of “golden nine silver ten”, domestic demand may be at a high level, but the average operating rate in the second half of the year will remain at a high level as a whole, so the supply side is expected to perform well. Analysts from business news agency believe that domestic refined oil prices will still be adjusted upward in the second half of the year, supported by high international crude oil prices and superimposed positive demand.