1、 Price data

As of July 18, the average factory price of domestic domestic refining and hydrotreating naphtha was 6920.00 yuan / ton, down 0.53% from 6956.60 yuan / ton on July 12. The actual transaction price of local refining naphtha was about 6800-7000 yuan / ton.

As of July 18, the average factory price of domestic straight run naphtha was 6795.00 yuan / ton, down 0.84% from 6852.50 yuan / ton on July 12. The actual transaction price of direct distillation naphtha was about 6700-6800 yuan / ton.

On July 18, the naphtha commodity index was 85.41, which was flat with yesterday, down 16.77% from 102.62 points (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and 102.20% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Naphtha prices fell slightly this week, and the refining market was weak this week, and downstream procurement was required.

Upstream: international crude oil prices fell, the Fed’s position was wobbling under high inflation, the CPI in June rose beyond expectations, and the market generally worried about the tightening of monetary policy caused by high inflation pressure; OPEC + policies were implemented, and the agreement on production increase was reached, and the market expected to increase supply; Under the severe trend of multi-national epidemic situation, the implementation of blockade measures to suppress fuel demand, etc.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of toluene fell this week, with the price of toluene at 5860 yuan / ton on July 11, and that of July 18 at 5780 yuan / T, down 80 yuan / ton from last week, or 1.37%. The price of mixed xylene fell this week, with the price of mixed xylene of 6000 yuan / ton on July 11, and that of 5920 yuan / ton on July 18, down 80 yuan / T, or 1.33% from last week. In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 6 commodities rising in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week (7.12-7.16) in 2021, with the top three commodities rising respectively as LNG (3.75%), power coal (2.29%), and liquefied gas (1.52%). There are 9 commodities falling on a month-on-month basis, with 1 commodity falling more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three products were coke (-5.26%), WTI crude oil (-3.90%), Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This week, the average rise and fall was -0.49 per cent.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent fluctuation of international crude oil prices, limited cost support of naphtha market, and slow release of terminal and aromatics demand have led to poor market activity. Downstream on demand procurement is the main, market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and it is expected that naphtha refining will be weak in the near future.