The off-season August has passed, and the propane Market in the traditional sales peak season has come, but it has not been able to go up as expected. Propane entered the market in September, showing a continuous downward trend. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average market price of propane was 3457.00 yuan / ton on September 3 and 3350.00 yuan / ton on September 10, with a decrease of 3.11% during the period, which was the same as that on August 1.

Jinjiu has entered the traditional sales peak season. As the weather gradually turns cold, the industry has greater expectations of market demand. However, at present, Jinjiu has passed one third. Propane market performance is too pessimistic, and it does not show an upward trend. Instead, it falls again and again. At present, there are many negative factors in the market, which bring too much pressure to propane upward.

On the news surface, the falling cost of imported gas and the severe decline of international crude oil are one of the main reasons for the decline of propane. Due to the impact of the weakening demand caused by the epidemic situation, WTI fell by nearly 8%, and Brent crude oil fell below $40 / barrel for the first time since June. Secondly, although CP rose in September, the increase did not meet the expectation, which provided limited support to the market. Then there is demand. Due to the slow improvement of terminal demand, there is no obvious change in the current market. The overall downward trend of the civil LPG market has brought about obvious constraints on the market. At present, although the overall output of domestic refineries has been reduced, the market supply is still sufficient. At present, there are many negative factors, the downstream mentality is cautious, more on-demand replenishment, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. Manufacturers blocked shipment, inventory gradually accumulated, continue to reduce prices, profit delivery.

Regional specification September 10

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 952850-3300 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953300-3460 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 953200-3400 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 952880-2980 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953050-3400 yuan / ton

Propane in Northeast China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3280-3800 yuan / ton

At present, there are some differences in the domestic propane market trend among different regions, only a small part of the region remains stable, and most other regions are weak in reducing the price.

International crude oil: on September 8, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price plummeted, and the settlement price of the main contract was $36.76/barrel, down $3.01. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract settlement price to 39.78 US dollars / barrel, down 2.23 US dollars. WTI fell nearly 8%, and Brent crude oil fell below $40 / barrel for the first time since June due to concerns that demand may be restrained due to the aggravation of the global epidemic, and the resonance impact of sharp falls in US technology stocks and energy stocks.

In terms of the international market, Saudi Aramco announced CP in September 2020, with propane at $365 / T, stable compared with the previous month; butane at $355 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

At present, the continuous downward trend of international crude oil has a significant drag on the market, and the civil LPG market is mainly weak. The domestic refineries supply is stable and the port supply is sufficient. Although Jinjiu has arrived, the terminal demand has not been significantly improved, the demand has not been followed up, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong and the mentality is more cautious. At present, the CP price is expected to fall in October, and there are many negative factors, all of which have brought constraints on the upward road of the market. It is expected that the propane market may still fall in the short term. In the long run, terminal demand is still the main problem.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic xylene market trend is stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price is about 3510 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene price trend this week is generally stable. Port inventory continued to fall, but it was still high. As of the end of this week, East China was about 125000 tons, and continued to drop by 9000 tons compared with last week. Therefore, the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. Market oversupply, downstream PX units restart, gasoline blending demand shows signs of improvement, isomer xylene demand slightly improved, market transactions improved, overall supply and demand situation tends to be stable. The upstream raw material naphtha continued to rise, the downstream product paraxylene fell, and the marginal profit margin of MX industry remained low. According to CFR calculation, the price difference of px-mx narrowed to about $93 / T. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3700 yuan / ton. The market continued to pay attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the supply of crude oil due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on the supply of crude oil, the continued spread of the overseas epidemic delayed the impact of economic restart on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, for crude oil, moderate fuel demand at the end of the summer led investors to be cautious about crude oil prices, adding to the stock market crash later this week, resulting in the largest weekly decline in WTI crude oil and distribution since June. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $3.665/barrel to close at $41.21/barrel, down 8.17% month on month. Analysts and traders were bearish on the outlook for crude oil next week. The future crude oil demand outlook and oil price trend mainly depend on the global epidemic trend and the orderly recovery of various countries’ economies. Meanwhile, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the linkage with the US dollar index and the stock market, and how oil producing countries and oil companies adjust their production are also important factors affecting oil prices.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week was about 4600 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 536.5 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 554.5 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will be a small correction. In terms of PTA market, the market price rebounded slightly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3603 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 446 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to fall slightly next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene is about 514 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 529 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will fall slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data, and the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the fluctuation of US dollar index and stock market, and the impact of Sino US economic and trade situation on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will adjust next week.

According to statistics, in August, the domestic price of p-xylene was stable. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 4600 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the domestic PX market price was 4600 yuan / ton. The price trend was stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.83%. The price fluctuation of PX was the main external price fluctuation. The domestic PX market had a high degree of external dependence. The external price fluctuation had a certain guiding effect on the domestic price.

In recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has put into operation a 600000 ton new unit, Yangzi Petrochemical plant has been running stably, fuhaichuang plant has been operating in one line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant has been running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical plant has been operating normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant has been running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit has been operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical Company has been operating steadily The operation of the unit is stable. The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%. The domestic supply of p-xylene is normal. Affected by crude oil price fluctuation, the domestic PX market price trend is stable. The international crude oil price rose slightly in August, while the external price of PX fluctuated mainly. As of the 28th, the closing prices in Asia were 517-519 USD / T FOB Korea and 535-537 USD / T CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX units in Asia has been stable. Generally speaking, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. The closing price of PX in August has little change in China The price trend of p-xylene market is stable.

With the gradual recovery of the economy, crude oil demand has picked up. In August, the international crude oil price closed at more than $40 / barrel. As of the 28th, the main contract settlement price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 42.97 US dollars / barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures market was 45.81 dollars / barrel. On the one hand, under the influence of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, the shutdown supply of oil facilities decreased In the medium term, oil prices do not have the fundamentals of a substantial upward trend. In addition, under the OPEC + oil producing countries’ agreement on production reduction, the scale of production reduction will gradually decrease, and there is a certain risk in the supply side in the medium and long term. What’s more, there are still great risks in the epidemic situation in Europe, America and Asia and the pace of demand recovery It may be affected by the epidemic situation for a long time. The crude oil price fluctuates at a high level, and the price trend of p-xylene market is stable.

In August, the price trend of downstream PTA market did not change much, and the domestic PTA spot market remained low and volatile. As of the end of the month, the average price of PTA market was about 3570 yuan / T, down 31.16% year on year. In August, the domestic PTA market was weak and volatile, new units were put into operation, terminal demand was weak, supply increased, inventory was high, fundamentals were under negative pressure, and the price was mainly fluctuating. At the end of the month, the cost end support and terminal demand were bargain hunting, and the tail showed a small decline. Affected by the low price of downstream PTA market, the domestic p-xylene market price trend was temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of the business agency, believes that the crude oil price has remained mainly volatile in recent years, coupled with the slow recovery of domestic and foreign trade at the terminal, and the unstable order performance, the current raw material procurement remains mainly rigid demand. If the follow-up orders can not be followed up in time, it is expected that the market price of p-xylene in September will remain stable.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the month, the domestic first-class industrial grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 4187.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 4175.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.30%. The current price fell by 0.30% month on month, and the current price was 4.84% lower than that of last year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate declined slightly, the trading atmosphere of potassium nitrate Market was not good, and the actual transaction volume was less. Generally speaking, the mentality of potassium nitrate manufacturers was low, and the market of potassium nitrate was lower. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4000-4300 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotations vary according to different purchasing situations.

In the near future, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of upstream potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 1830 yuan / ton at the weekend, and the quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution at weekend is 1880 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable. In recent years, the actual transaction of potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly required, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride Market is stable. It can not support potassium nitrate.

Recently, the imported potassium was affected by the State Reserve and the strike in Belarus, and the market price continued to rise, but the downstream acceptance was not so good. The price of domestic potassium in the market is expected to follow. Supported by the cost, it is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on August 25 was 4816.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Tuesday, with a month on month increase of 2.12% and a decrease of 3.67% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On Tuesday, the market of phosphoric acid continued to be stable, and some enterprises fluctuated slightly with little change. The demand side of the off-season performance is general, take as you go, replenish on bargain, no large volume. The price of raw materials is stable, and the phosphoric acid market is running smoothly. The trading atmosphere is not high. The overall situation is wait-and-see, and the trend is relatively stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of August 25, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4800 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4500-5200 yuan / ton, the transaction was stable, the quotation in Guangxi was about 4750 yuan / ton, with small fluctuation; the quotation in Yunnan was about 4500 yuan / ton, the price was stable; in Beijing, the price was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, it was 4800 yuan/ The price quoted in Tianjin is about 5500 yuan / ton and there is no fluctuation for the time being; the quotation in Jiangsu is about 4600 yuan / ton. Local prices remain stable and wait-and-see, and some enterprises adjust narrowly.

August 25

Xingfa group: 85% 4800 yuan / ton 4800 yuan / ton

Xiangyang Gaolong content: 85% 4800 yuan / ton 4800 yuan / ton

Content: 85% 5500 yuan / ton 5500 yuan / ton

Hangxing Hongda content: 85% 4700 yuan / ton 4700 yuan / ton

Sichuan KANGLONG content: 85% 4550 yuan / ton 4550 yuan / ton 0

Wengfudazhou content: 85% 5200 yuan / ton 5200 yuan / ton

Anda chemical content: 85% 4500 yuan / ton 4450 yuan / ton

South Yunnan industry and trade content: 85% 4500 yuan / ton 4500 yuan / ton 0

Content: 85% 4600 yuan / ton 4700 yuan / ton – 100 yuan

Upstream phosphate ore, domestic phosphate ore market weak consolidation operation this week, the market price has no big fluctuation, the field trading is cold, the downstream demand is flat, the mining enterprises are mainly stable and wait-and-see.at present, the domestic phosphate ore market is in the off-season, the overall weak consolidation operation, and most of the domestic areas gradually carry out environmental inspection, market trading atmosphere Therefore, it is expected that the short-term phosphorus ore market production and marketing changes will be limited, and the price will remain stable or will decline slightly.

For yellow phosphorus, the market price is mainly stable. On August 24, the market price of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is mainly stable. At present, the price of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 15000-15500 yuan / ton. At present, there is no change in the yellow phosphorus start-up situation. The manufacturers mainly issue the early orders, and the yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly support the price operation. The downstream demand situation is general. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that the current demand is difficult to boost the market. Downstream purchasing is cautious and the market trading atmosphere is not high. It is expected that the overall phosphoric acid will remain stable and fluctuate sporadically in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3530 yuan / ton, up 0.28% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the international oil price rose slightly and then fell back. As a whole, it was in a narrow fluctuation trend. Affected by this, the trend of toluene price this week was generally stable. Port inventory continued to be high. As of the end of last week, the port inventory in East China was about 143000 tons, down about 15000 tons compared with last week, and the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. The main market price in East China is about 3600 yuan / ton. As the new coronavirus epidemic leads to the reduction of crude oil demand and the impact of geopolitical tightening on economic recovery concerns, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil, this week, the international oil price rose slightly and then fell back. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.945/barrel to close at $43.57/barrel, down 2.12% from last week. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. The future market will pay close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $42-46 / barrel. The future crude oil demand prospect and oil price trend mainly depend on the trend of global epidemic situation and the orderly recovery of national economy. At the same time, how oil producing countries and oil enterprises adjust their production is also an important factor affecting oil prices.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 530 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 548 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market in the short term will be slightly reduced. In terms of PTA market, this week’s market price fell back. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3577 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 446 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline slightly next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene is about 510 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 535 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA, API inventory data in the short term. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geopolitical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the economic restart of crude oil demand and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart and recovery, as well as the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

The high international crude oil price fluctuated in a narrow range, the news of international crude oil market was less exciting, and the price of refined oil market was stable and slightly decreased. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of gasoline on August 21 was 5508 yuan / ton, down 0.36% from the beginning of the week; on August 21, the price of diesel oil was 4835 yuan / ton, down 1.17% from the beginning of the week.

This week’s meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) will put pressure on oil producers whose production exceeds the target to further reduce production in August September. However, the scale of OPEC production reduction has not been adjusted. This week, the international crude oil market lacks the directional news, the international crude oil price high level narrow range movement.

In terms of gasoline, domestic sunny days were dominant this week, but domestic hot weather declined, and gasoline terminal demand remained rigid. On the 21st, the price of domestic refined oil was raised by 85 yuan and 80 yuan per ton of domestic gasoline and diesel oil respectively. The gasoline market is not willing to follow up, and the market price is mainly stable. In terms of diesel, the demand for diesel terminal in southern China is recovering, and the domestic industrial and mining, outdoor construction, transportation and other industries are just waking up and waiting for support. However, due to the lack of action power in the international oil price, the diesel market has a low willingness to increase the price, and the diesel market price has been stable and falling this week.

On August 21, the average start-up load of daily decompression unit was about 71%, and the start-up load of refinery decreased slightly by 2%.

Lu Xingjun, a refined oil analyst at the business club, believes: the international crude oil market lacks good news, and crude oil prices fluctuate in a narrow range; the refined oil market purchases more on demand, but the traditional peak season of gold, silver and ten is coming, and the refined oil price is expected to rise steadily.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 21, the average price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black was 4566.67 yuan / ton, and the domestic silica market was stable, with balanced supply and demand and just in demand procurement.

The domestic rubber grade silica market as a whole maintains stable operation, the trading atmosphere is general, and the demand is not significantly improved. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the merchants take the goods carefully. At present, the price of fumed silica is about 22000 yuan / ton. The domestic supply and demand of fumed silica are balanced, and the shipment is slow. The Changtai micro nano factory in Shouguang City, Shandong Province, 5100 yuan / ton, Shandong Lihua new materials Co., Ltd. 46 00 yuan / ton, 4000 yuan / ton for Boai Xiangsheng silicon powder Co., Ltd.

The quotation of upstream hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is stable temporarily, the trading atmosphere is maintained at the early stage level, and the domestic hydrochloric acid market mainly operates stably.

The chemical index on August 20 was 680 points, up 1 point compared with yesterday, 33.07% lower than the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and 13.71% higher than the lowest point 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business agency silica analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market continues to operate stably, and the price changes little. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

Trade name: urea

Latest price (August 17): 1766.67 yuan / ton

On August 17, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell, 30 yuan / ton, or 1.67% lower than that on August 14. The upstream liquid ammonia dropped slightly recently, and the cost support was general. After the printing mark has passed, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, the domestic demand is light, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving goods. Affected by the mentality of buying up but not falling, the purchasing intention of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises decreased significantly.

It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and fall slightly in the future: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 1700 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate this week is 6212.50 yuan / ton, and the current price is flat on a month on month basis, and the current price is 5.15% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic potash market remained stable, while the demand side was weak. Downstream factories took more goods on demand, curbing the price rise, and the price adjustment was not large. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6000-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

This week, the upstream supply of potassium chloride is more sufficient, domestic potassium production is normal, the shipment situation is relatively slow, the market new order transaction is less, the trading atmosphere is flat and light, the domestic potassium chloride market fluctuation is not big. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the recent supply of imported potassium goods is relatively sufficient, and new supplies have arrived in the north and South ports, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).