1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic xylene market trend is stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price is about 3510 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene price trend this week is generally stable. Port inventory continued to fall, but it was still high. As of the end of this week, East China was about 125000 tons, and continued to drop by 9000 tons compared with last week. Therefore, the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. Market oversupply, downstream PX units restart, gasoline blending demand shows signs of improvement, isomer xylene demand slightly improved, market transactions improved, overall supply and demand situation tends to be stable. The upstream raw material naphtha continued to rise, the downstream product paraxylene fell, and the marginal profit margin of MX industry remained low. According to CFR calculation, the price difference of px-mx narrowed to about $93 / T. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3700 yuan / ton. The market continued to pay attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the supply of crude oil due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on the supply of crude oil, the continued spread of the overseas epidemic delayed the impact of economic restart on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, for crude oil, moderate fuel demand at the end of the summer led investors to be cautious about crude oil prices, adding to the stock market crash later this week, resulting in the largest weekly decline in WTI crude oil and distribution since June. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $3.665/barrel to close at $41.21/barrel, down 8.17% month on month. Analysts and traders were bearish on the outlook for crude oil next week. The future crude oil demand outlook and oil price trend mainly depend on the global epidemic trend and the orderly recovery of various countries’ economies. Meanwhile, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the linkage with the US dollar index and the stock market, and how oil producing countries and oil companies adjust their production are also important factors affecting oil prices.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week was about 4600 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 536.5 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 554.5 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will be a small correction. In terms of PTA market, the market price rebounded slightly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3603 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 446 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to fall slightly next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene is about 514 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 529 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will fall slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data, and the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the fluctuation of US dollar index and stock market, and the impact of Sino US economic and trade situation on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will adjust next week.