On Monday, April 13, according to the data monitored by the business association, the polypropylene (PP) index rose vertically today. The ex factory price of large petrochemical plants in China has been increased by leaps and bounds, and the traders have to cancel the quotation from time to time and raise the price again. The spot price of domestic polypropylene market has skyrocketed, and polypropylene is a rare commodity for a while. The search army has the momentum to kill the general without asking about the price area. PP futures rose again, prompting the market speculation atmosphere. As of the afternoon of April 13, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8533.33 yuan / ton. Film material, plastic injection, etc. rise synchronously, fiber material can not go down. Today’s rally continued last weekend’s rally, even more than last weekend’s rally. It rose 16.89%, surpassing the 14.36% increase of the whole week last week.

Turning point

Rome wasn’t built in a day, so it wasn’t built overnight. Especially in the background of the weakening demand of China’s plastic industry and the rapid growth of polypropylene production capacity, polypropylene (PP) can have a recent increase is really a blessing. In this article, the polypropylene analyst of the business club will take you to analyze the reasons.

The turning point of the market appeared on April 6 last week. According to the monitoring data of the business club’s bulk list, PP spot market stabilized from April 1-13 after the adjustment of shocks, and rose sharply since April 6, ending the three consecutive months of decline. Today’s gains were particularly encouraging, with a reference to 16.89% per ton of single day spot price increases. This subtle inflection point, which has a high synchronous rate with the international crude oil price fluctuation, makes us have reason to believe that the starting point of the industrial chain – crude oil, whose rise is the heavyweight fuse of this polypropylene market.

Upstream conduction

On April 2, peripheral news said that Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to reach the impact of a production reduction agreement. WTI and Brent both rose by more than 25%, the biggest daily increase on record. On April 9, the OPEC + special meeting ended. Its production reduction was less than the market expectation, and the oil price corrected. Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President trump and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman called on Tuesday to reach an oil production reduction agreement between OPEC and other non OPEC oil producing countries, Xinhua reported Sunday. Kremlin website released a statement the same day, Putin, Trump and Salman in the call to support the production reduction agreement. Since early April, oil prices have increased by 11.13%. The plasticizing industry mostly depends on the top cost end crude oil. In recent years, crude oil has soared, and crude oil and polypropylene as futures have strong financial attributes, so the market transmission of this rise is sharp and rapid.

In addition, the direct upstream propylene trend of PP is also relatively rapid in the near future. Many traders adjusted their gains over the weekend, and it is reported that some enterprises have increased nearly 100%. Last month, Shandong propylene price fell in shock, with a monthly decline of more than 15%. After the Qing Dynasty, the price of propylene increased steadily, and the market transaction has soared to 8000-12000 yuan / ton, and some manufacturers have suspended the quotation. Market transactions have soared by 8000-12000 yuan / ton, and some manufacturers even suspended their offers. The upstream production reduction is good, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good and the raw materials are in short supply, and the participants have a positive attitude. It can be seen from the industrial chain relationship of polypropylene that the recent sharp rise of propylene has played a direct role in conducting the sharp rise of polypropylene. The rising trend of crude oil and propylene near and far cost end is the cost side factor of this soaring market of polypropylene.

Futures urges

When it comes to futures, it could be an important driver of today’s surge in spot prices. On the 10th, the 05 contract was up 398 points, up and closing. Pp09 opened sharply on the 13th, and pp05 rose again. The delivery of the contract is coming soon, investors follow the speculation and the market is immersed in a speculation atmosphere. And the position of 100000 hands is more than twice of that of the same period. Whether the 05 contract can be successfully delivered will be the main concern. On the news side, in addition to the above-mentioned international crude oil price, the demand gap of propylene brought by the current public health events is also a big driver. In the near future, futures have a strong impact on spot prices, which is the financial factor of this rally.

Mask crisis

Analysis of the current polypropylene skyrocketing, naturally can not bypass the rapid growth of prevention and control material demand. Since the Spring Festival, there are about 30000 new mask factories in China. The demand of fiber material and melt blown material increases rapidly. The surge in demand has caught polypropylene enterprises and the society by surprise, and petrochemical enterprises have turned to produce varieties in short supply. Before the outbreak of this social public health event, the proportion of fiber material production was about 35%. At present, the production of fiber material has reached a historical high level, and melt blown polypropylene has also experienced a significant expansion. Even so, some brand products still have a large gap. The inclination of variety demand and production scheduling also resulted in the decrease of production proportion of CO injection plastics and drawing materials. Last year, the production capacity of PP drawing materials accounted for about 33%. Recently, a large number of enterprises changed production, which caused the production capacity of drawing materials to fall to around 22%. As the mainstream material in the market, drawing material has strong rigid demand and large demand. According to Longzhong’s follow-up, the short-term production scheduling mismatch may lead to a shortage of wire drawing materials in the later stage. “Mask crisis” can be said to be the demand side factor driving up the price of polypropylene.

Forecast for future market

PP analysts of business club think: during the current special period, the situation of overseas health prevention and control is still unclear, and the short-term decline of demand for polypropylene fiber materials and spray melt materials at home and abroad is less likely. There is still room to improve the load of downstream factories such as wire drawing and copolymerization, but this year’s maintenance peak season is approaching, and the start-up situation of the production line is complex, which needs further observation. At the same time, due to the mismatching of production capacity, some materials are facing the expectation of weakening supply. In addition, the cost end support is consistent, so the overall price of polypropylene is expected to remain high in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride by ortho phthalic method was 4475 yuan / ton, up 4.07% from 4300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 32.71% year on year. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and increased.

Since 2020, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been greatly reduced, but recently supported by the rise of crude oil price, the price of downstream petrochemical products rebounded and increased, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is no exception. In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is better than before, the market of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is better, and the market price of phthalic anhydride bottoms out. By the end of the 10th, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China had risen slightly, but the high-end transactions in the market were blocked. The main flow of negotiation of neighboring France’s source of goods in East China was 4400-4700 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene’s source of goods was 4000-4200 yuan / ton. The main flow of quotation in the phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4400-4800 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality in the phthalic anhydride market was still strong, the trading market in the market was slightly improved, and the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded Rise.

In terms of the industrial chain, the market prices of phthalic anhydride upstream raw materials ortho benzene and downstream DOP have also increased to varying degrees. The trend chart of monitoring ortho benzene and DOP prices by the business agency is as follows:

From the above trend chart, it can be seen that the upstream o-benzene price has increased slightly. In the near future, the price of CNPC o-benzene has increased by 100 yuan / ton, and the price of o-benzene has declined significantly since March. However, in the near future, affected by the price support of upstream raw crude oil, the import o-benzene market in the port area has warmed up, there are few transactions in the market, and the price of o-benzene has slightly increased, which brings some benefits Good support, phthalic anhydride market price affected higher.

By the end of the week, the average price of domestic DOP market was 5800 yuan / ton. DOP enterprises operated at low load, and DOP manufacturers had a lot of inventory. The price of DOP rose, the equipment of PVC enterprises started to operate at a low level, and the enthusiasm of customers’ procurement recovered. The main quotation of DOP market is about 5700-6000 yuan / ton, and the transaction of market plasticizer is getting warmer. Influenced by the rise of crude oil price, the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising.

On the whole, the short-term interest and support of crude oil price is limited, and the price is mainly volatile. The price of domestic petrochemical products is slightly higher due to this impact. Business analysts believe that the market price of phthalic anhydride will still slightly increase in the short term.

1、 Price trend

In March 2020, the market center of domestic BDO market fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, the BDO price at the beginning of the month is 9680 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month is 9440 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.48% in the month. The price is 4.53% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the focus of domestic BDO market fell this month. In the early stage, the start-up of the factory was stable, while in February, the start-up of the downstream was low, and BDO inventory accumulated. After the outbreak and spread of foreign epidemic and crude oil plummeted, the terminal demand was restrained and continued to be depressed, the downstream industries had no support to increase the burden, and the actual consumption capacity of raw materials was limited. Therefore, the strategy of “limiting production and ensuring price” runs through the whole March. Many main factories, such as Merck, Dongyuan, Kaixiang and hecian, stop or reduce the load, and the overall start-up is maintained at about 40%. However, the downstream industries, especially the main downstream PBT factories, are tired of internal and external demand, and the inventory is out of stock. At the same time, on March 25, BDO held an industry meeting to continue the price protection strategy and slow down the price decline. On March 26, Henan energy, Meike, Shannxi chemical and Dongyuan announced the settlement in March and listing in April, all of which decreased by 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous month, aggravating the market bearish mentality. At the same time, the downstream has strong resistance to the high price. Under the pressure of shipment, the space for the carrier to handle the market has increased, and many times the narrow margin has been negotiated. In view of the current high inventory and the difficulty and expectation of the downstream short-term start-up recovery, the export volume is reduced, and the low price supply continues to impact, and the supply and demand game continues.

In terms of devices, Henan hecian 100000 t / a device was put into operation on March 5, and all devices were shut down for maintenance on March 27, and the restart time was not determined; Henan Kaixiang 110000 T / a device was shut down for maintenance on March 15, and the restart time was not determined; the first phase 100000 t / a device load of Lanshan Tunhe was 50%, and the second phase 100000 t / a device was shut down before the Spring Festival, but not restarted; Xinjiang Xinye 60000 T / a device was shut down on March 25, evening In case of maintenance, the restart time is not determined; in case of restart on March 12, the overall load will be maintained at 50%. The operation of 30000 tons of Tianye phase I is stable, and the restart time of other devices is uncertain. The overall load of Ningxia Sinopec Great Wall energy plant is maintained at 50-60%; the 100000 ton / year plant of Shaanxi Shaanxi Chemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance on March 27, with an estimated 7-10 days; the 60000 ton plant of Shaanxi black cat will be restarted in the first ten days of March, with the load maintained at about 50%; the shutdown for maintenance on March 5, Inner Mongolia Dongyuan, with the restart time to be determined.

Industrial chain: raw materials: methanol: the overall methanol market is weak this month, with a large drop in price. At the beginning of the month, freight rates in all regions fell. The factory took advantage of the trend to hold the price. Some traders filled the gap, and the main factory shipped goods smoothly and stopped selling more. In the middle of June, the international crude oil plummeted, the downstream and traders panicked again, and the overall pricing in the northwest regions was difficult. The main outsourcing area of Ningxia olefin factory turned to Xinjiang and Ningxia, and the negotiation atmosphere was stalemate; the new orders in Guanzhong region were rarely traded, and the factory mostly implemented the pre contract volume. In the late ten days, with the price gradually approaching the downstream psychological price, coupled with the shutdown of methanol plants such as Xianyang chemical, the price gradually stopped falling and stabilized.

Calcium carbide: the price of domestic calcium carbide Market in this month shows a downward trend. The main factory price in Wuhai district is reduced by 200 yuan / ton. Up to now, the factory price in Wuhai district is 2450-2550 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of calcium carbide in Northwest China is still at a high level, the enterprise’s shipment is positive, and it still shows a weak downward trend in the near future. And the support of raw material surface is also insufficient. The third round of price reduction of Lancan carbon falls after the year, and the whole Lancan carbon plant is in a state of loss. The biggest impact on the calcium carbide industry is its main downstream PVC. PVC prices have been weak in recent years, and its operating rate also shows a downward trend. It is expected that the overall operation and maintenance of PVC industry will increase in April, and the operating rate will decrease, resulting in weak demand for calcium carbide.

In the downstream, PTMEG: more than 60-70% of BDO supporting PTMEG units were started. In BDO plant of outsourcing: Hangzhou Sanlong was restarted in the first ten days of March, with low negative operation; the load of Xiaoxing chemical industry was 50-60%, with maintenance plan in April. PBT: BDO supporting downstream PBT: Tunhe River load about 50%; Meizhou Bay load about 70%; Kaixiang parking, restart time is not determined. BDO factory: Yizheng Chemical fiber load is maintained at 60-70%; Nantong Xingchen normal operation; Kanghui one line operation; Changshu Changchun load is 50%; Wuxi Xingsheng low load; other devices are in shutdown state. The PBT industry as a whole started less than 50%, and its consumption capacity is limited. The overall load of GBL plant is 50%. TPU load is about 60%; PU slurry load is about 5-60%..

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.

3、 Future forecast

Although the main factories maintain low negative operation, but the initial inventory is still overstocked, and terminal demand is weak, the downstream industries follow up to reduce negative production, maintain the just need to enter the market, with a strong atmosphere of price pressure. At present, there is no sign of improvement in the international epidemic situation. It is difficult and expected to resume construction in the downstream of the terminal in a short time. At the same time, the low price supply continues to impact, and the supply and demand game continues. BDO analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will continue to decline in a weak way, focusing on the changes in the mentality and fundamentals of the supplier and the demander.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride in March fell sharply. As of the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic method was 4500 yuan / ton, a sharp decline of 21.05% compared with 5700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a year-on-year decline of 33.73%, and the price of phthalic anhydride reached a new low in nearly 10 years.

Since 2020, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride market has been falling continuously. The biggest negative factor is that the crude oil price plummeted in late March, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material phthalic acid market is no exception. In March, the price of phthalic acid dropped by 25.86%, and the price of phthalic anhydride market continues to decline due to the sharp drop in raw material price. In addition, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient, the sales peak season of the downstream plasticizer industry is over, the procurement is not active, the phthalic anhydride manufacturers are generally on the market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is falling constantly. By the end of the month, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China has fallen sharply. Downstream factories purchase on demand, the factory inventory pressure has increased, and high-end transactions have been blocked. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method’s source of goods is 4400-4600 yuan / ton, and the main flow of negotiation of naphthalene method’s source of goods is 4100-4300 yuan / ton. In North China, the main flow of quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 4400-4700 yuan / ton, with a strong wait-and-see mentality in phthalic anhydride market, coupled with the increase of buying Do not buy down mentality, phthalic anhydride trading market weakness, phthalic anhydride prices in March fell sharply.

In terms of industrial chain, the market of phthalic anhydride’s upstream raw material o-benzene and downstream DOP has declined to varying degrees. The price trend of o-benzene and DOP monitored by the business agency is as follows:

From the above trend chart, it can be seen that the price of o-benzene and DOP dropped significantly. The price of o-benzene fell by 25.86% in March, and the price of downstream DOP fell by 14.75% in March. The price of o-benzene and DOP both hit a new low in recent 10 years. By the end of 31 days, the execution price of Sinopec phthalic acid had dropped to 4300 yuan / ton, the import price of phthalic acid in the port area had dropped sharply, there were few transactions in the market, and the price of phthalic acid had dropped significantly, which undoubtedly became the biggest negative factor in phthalic acid market. The downstream DOP market price fell rapidly, DOP enterprises operated at low load, and the logistics and transportation gradually recovered in the near future. However, DOP manufacturers’ inventory was high, and the DOP market price fell sharply to 5800-6200 yuan / ton level. There was no good support in the upstream and downstream, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell continuously.

On the whole, the international public health events have seriously affected the crude oil price. The short-term internal benefit of crude oil is insufficient, and the price keeps falling. The price of domestic petrochemical products is lower due to this impact. Business analysts believe that the price of phthalic acid is difficult to stop falling in the short term, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to slide in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of o-xylene Sinopec contract fell for many times in March. Influenced by the sharp drop in crude oil, the price of o-xylene was lowered for many times in March. As of March 31, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 4300.00 yuan / ton, down 1500 yuan / ton or 25.86% compared with 5800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Compared with the same period last year, the price fell 36.76%. The price of o-benzene has reached a new low in recent years.

2、 Market analysis:

On March 30, the ox commodity index was 36.71, which was the same as that of yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 63.29% lower than the peak of 100.00 on March 7, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now). The price of o-xylene hit a new low in history, mainly due to the impact of crude oil price plummeted, the price of raw materials of o-xylene fell sharply, the cost of o-xylene fell, there was a large space for o-xylene to fall, and the market of o-xylene was negative.

Crude oil price plummets and affects o-benzene industry chain

It can be seen from the trend of crude oil price in March that crude oil price fell sharply in March, of which Brent crude oil price fell by 48.93% since March and WTI crude oil by 57.34% in March. Crude oil prices hit a 20-year low in March. Crude oil price dropped sharply, and it was transmitted to the downstream. The cost of raw materials for chemical products decreased, and the cost of ortho benzene decreased. The price of ortho benzene followed the decline, and the market of ortho benzene was negative.

It can be seen from the up and down chart of ortho benzene industrial chain that the price of ortho benzene raw materials has dropped sharply, and the cost of ortho benzene has dropped; the price of downstream products of ortho benzene has fallen, which is bad for the market of ortho benzene, and the pressure of ortho benzene drop is large.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of the business association, affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the industry chain of o-xylene fell as a whole, the price of raw materials of o-benzene fell, the cost of o-benzene fell, the potential for o-benzene to fall was large, the price of downstream products of o-benzene fell, the pressure for o-benzene to fall was large, and the market of o-benzene was negative. Generally speaking, the decline of crude oil price is bad for the industrial chain of o-benzene, and the short-term growth momentum of o-benzene is insufficient and the downward pressure is large. In terms of demand, the enterprises gradually resume construction, but the overall demand is expected to decline, which has little impact on the industrial chain, and the market of the industrial chain is more bearish. With the stability of the crude oil market, the downward pressure of the industrial chain is weakened. Generally speaking, the market of o-benzene is weak, but the downward pressure of o-benzene price is reduced. It is expected that the price of ortho benzene in the future will be weak and stable, and the downward pressure will be weakened.

1、 Price trend

On March 29, the tin commodity index was 62.63, unchanged from yesterday, 37.53% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and 46.13% higher than the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week, Lunxi electronic disk rose again. At the beginning of the week, it fell to the weekly low of $12700 / ton, then bottomed out and recovered. Then, it was up by 18:00 on Friday. The weekly high was $14560 / ton, up $825 / ton, up 6.09%, with 1614 transactions and 17778 positions, up 281. This week’s spot tin market was driven up by the futures market. Friday’s spot price was 121000-123500 yuan / ton. In terms of premium and discount, the rising range of Yunxi spot water in Shanghai tin 2006 contract decreased from 20000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8000 yuan / ton on Friday, while that of Xiaopai and ordinary Yunzi decreased from 8000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5000-5500 yuan / ton on Friday.

Industry: this week, the basic metals are in a state of recovery and stabilization. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve announced unlimited quantitative easing policy, and the major central banks around the world have followed the policy of continuous interest rate reduction and easing. After the G20 meeting, the stimulus policy of introducing more than 5 trillion US dollars into the world was announced. The market gained confidence and left the market short in the week, which made the basic metals recovery.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 8 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities are silver (15.02%), gold (7.72%) and copper (6.48%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are antimony (- 4.98%), silicon metal (- 3.51%) and titanium concentrate (- 3.17%). This week’s average was 0.82%.

3、 Future prospects

Next week will enter April, the domestic situation has been further controlled, local governments and central banks continue to offer various stimulus policies to help enterprises to start a good recovery of life and production order, the market is expected to warm up consumption in April, but the overseas market is still relatively serious, the market risk is dependent, the domestic resistance is still stronger than the external market, and the ratio of some products will continue to be repaired.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continued to decline this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride from the beginning of the week was 4575 yuan / ton, down 6.87% from 4912.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 32.22% year-on-year. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has reached a new low in ten years.

This week, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride continued to decline. Due to the low crude oil price volatility, the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material ortho benzene fell to the low level of 4300 yuan / ton. In addition, the demand of the downstream terminal in the near future is limited. Some phthalic anhydride manufacturers have high inventory and poor delivery. Affected by the sharp decline of raw material price, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride has been falling continuously. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China has fallen, the downstream factories have been shut down a lot, the factory inventory pressure has increased, and the high-end transaction has been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has declined. The main flow of the negotiation of the neighboring method ‘, The prices of most manufacturers in the site have declined, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has declined significantly.

In recent years, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec fell to 4300 yuan / ton, and the import phthalic acid Market in port area continued to decline. In recent years, the port phthalic acid market was weak, the port inventory increased, and the external quotation of phthalic acid decreased. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, and the actual list was discussed in detail. Affected by the decline of upstream raw material phthalic acid price, the market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline.

The price of isooctanol, the downstream DOP raw material, fell sharply, the cost of DOP raw material decreased, DOP enterprises operated at low load, and the logistics and transportation basically recovered in the near future, but DOP manufacturers still had a lot of inventory. DOP price fell, PVC enterprise equipment start low, customer procurement enthusiasm is poor. The main quotation in DOP market is about 5800-6200 yuan / ton, and a small amount of market plasticizers are traded. After that, DOP will be under great pressure, and the market price of phthalic anhydride will be significantly lower.

In the later stage, the crude oil price is still in a weak position in the short term. In addition, the peak season of the downstream plasticizer industry is over, and the demand for the upstream phthalic anhydride is limited. Influenced by the international public health events, it is expected that the price of the phthalic anhydride Market will rise heavily in the later stage, and will still fall.

On March 24, the rare earth index was 342 points, unchanged from yesterday, 65.80% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 26.20% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium is 377500 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 645000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 272000 yuan / ton; that of dysprosium oxide is 15000 yuan / ton to 1870000 yuan / ton; that of praseodymium oxide is 320000 yuan / ton; and that of neodymium oxide is 291500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 343500 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1.83 million yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market has fallen, the supply of domestic heavy and rare earth market has increased, and the import source of heavy and rare earth is tight. Myanmar has unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers continue to resume work, the domestic supply has increased, and the price trend of domestic heavy and rare earth has slightly dropped. In the near future, permanent magnet demand is normal, market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is mainly low, on-site supply is normal, light rare earth demand is general in the near future, and some market prices are slightly down. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the market supply of heavy rare earth has increased, and the market price has dropped slightly.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market to increase in the near future, but Myanmar’s rare earth export is prohibited, and the rare earth market is still expected to decline, but most of the product prices are stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on March 19, the domestic phosphorus ore market operated in a small fluctuation. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore at the initial high end was around 330-440 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the phosphorus ore market fluctuated slightly, and the overall stable operation is the main factor. At present, the phosphorus ore market in Guizhou has basically recovered, but the operating rate of production enterprises is not high, and low and medium load production is mainly for self use. At present, Guizhou Province: Guizhou Fuquan Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. offers 360 yuan / ton of 30% phosphate rock cargo plant, 20 yuan / ton back compared with last week; 28% grade phosphate rock cargo plant offers 320 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton back compared with last week; Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. offers 330 yuan / ton platform price of 30% phosphate rock Kaiyang railway station, maintaining stability; Guizhou Qidu Tiancheng Mining Co., Ltd. offers 140 yuan / ton platform price of 22% grade phosphate rock, maintaining stability. Hubei area: the factory quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 440 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade phosphate ore is 390 yuan / ton. Sichuan region: Mabian district price of 26% high magnesium phosphate rock of Sichuan Mabian hengyetong Mining Co., Ltd. is 240 yuan / ton. Yunnan area: 28% grade ammonium phosphate ore main plate price reference 275 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at present, the yellow phosphorus market continues to be dominated by weak consolidation operation, with general on-site trading. The factory acceptance of net phosphorus in Yunnan Province is about 16800-17100 yuan / ton, including the latest quotation of 17000 yuan / ton for Yunnan Pingbian yellow phosphorus plant. Phosphoric acid market quotation slightly fluctuated and adjusted, and there may be a downward trend of focus in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, although the operating rates of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid in the downstream of phosphate rock have increased, the overall market demand has not been effectively improved yet, so it is expected that the phosphate ore market will remain weak and stable in recent days.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong fell this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong fell from 6067.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.40%, down 25.16% compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol fell this week, with the March 20 octanol commodity index at 42.65.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the factory quotation of the mainstream octanol manufacturers in Shandong Province fell: the quotation of octanol of Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. at the end of this week was 5800 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week; the quotation of octanol of lihuayi Co., Ltd. at the end of this week was 5800 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week; the quotation of octanol of hualuhengsheng Co., Ltd. at the end of this week was 5800 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market fell this week. The quotation dropped from 6800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5731.82 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.83%, down 21.44% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell, affected by the supply and demand, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol.

Downstream market: DOP factory price fell this week. DOP’s quotation dropped from 7033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.96%, down 18.70% year on year. Downstream customers are less active in purchasing octanol, and the demand for octanol is general. The decline of DOP price has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late March, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene price fell, the cost support was weak, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. According to the octanol analyst of business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late March may decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.