From July 29 to August 5, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fell first and then rose. At the end of last week, it was 9062.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, it was 8512.5 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 6.07%.

Market price of main hydrogenated benzene in China this week (unit: yuan / ton)

The market, the price on July 29, and the price on August 5, rose and fell

East China, 8900 ~ 9000, 8400 ~ 8500, – 500

Shandong Province, 8700 ～ 8750., 8200 ～ 8300., – 475

On August 4, international crude oil futures fell continuously to the lowest point since February. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $88.54/barrel, down US $2.34 or 2.12%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.12/barrel, down US $2.66 or 2.75%. The main reason is that at the macro level, the Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 50 basis points on Thursday to curb the economic recession that may be triggered by inflation, which continued to be negative for oil prices. This was compounded by the sharp increase in US commercial crude oil inventories last week and the increase in production targets of Oil Producing Countries OPEC.

The recent negative market demand side has played a major role. At the beginning of this month, the economic data of many countries showed that the PMI data of major global economies in July was weak, which intensified the market’s concern about economic recession. On August 1, the WTI fell by more than 4%. On Thursday, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points, the largest increase since 1995. The world’s major central banks have frequently raised interest rates to curb inflation, and the expectation of economic recession is rampant. This is also the most important factor that puts pressure on the commodity market. Oil prices are facing unprecedented pressure. In the future, the crude oil analysts of the business association believe that the supply and demand fundamentals are intertwined. On the one hand, the supply tension has not changed, which still supports the oil price. But in the medium term, the upward inflation and economic downturn may gradually bring pressure on demand. Stagflation and recession may be bad for the stock market and commodity market, and the oil price will also be under pressure. Considering comprehensively, in the short term, the oil price will be under pressure. In the medium term, it is difficult to ease the shortage of natural gas and other energy. Especially in the fourth quarter, the demand for energy in winter is increased, and the oil price still has upward momentum, but there is little possibility of breaking the previous high.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

July 29, 8850, – 300

August 2, 8650, – 200

August 4, 8450, – 200

This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced three times, with a total reduction of 700 yuan / ton. As of August 5, the listed price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton and 8450 yuan / ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has dropped continuously since July.

Due to the large number of units put into production downstream of pure benzene in the early stage, the demand for pure benzene is increased, the overall supply of pure benzene is tight, the domestic trade cargo is reduced, and the high-level import of superimposed outer disk is reduced, and the East China port is kept in a state of de stocking as a whole. However, due to the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant drop of external pure benzene, the support of external news for pure benzene is weak, and the recent reduction of the downstream load and the increase of shutdown maintenance, the demand for pure benzene is slowing down, and the demand follow-up is poor. The pure benzene market is under pressure this week. Sinopec has lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene for three consecutive times, which once again affected the market mentality. The price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises dropped significantly this week.

Aluminum fluoride prices fell in July due to weakness

According to the data of business agency, the aluminum fluoride market fell in July, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell. As of July 28, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10950 yuan / ton, down 1.13% from 11075 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month.

Raw material prices fluctuated and adjusted in July

According to the monitoring of business agency, fluorite prices rose slightly in July, up 0.41%; In July, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly, falling by 0.09%. The raw material market fluctuated and adjusted, the cost of aluminum fluoride was relatively stable, the overall upward momentum of aluminum fluoride weakened, and the downward pressure remained.

Cryolite price adjustment in July

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of cryolite fluctuated and adjusted in July, and the cryolite market consolidated. As of July 28, the price of cryolite was 7650 yuan / ton, up 0.66% from 7600 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of cryolite was strongly adjusted, the demand for cryolite was consolidated, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable.

Electrolytic aluminum prices first fell and then rose in July

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of electrolytic aluminum first fell and then rose in July, and the electrolytic aluminum market consolidated. As of July 28, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18040 yuan / ton, down 5.38% from 19066.67 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of electrolytic aluminum fell first and then rose. The aluminum market was consolidated, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was general.

Market overview and forecast

According to analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency, hydrofluoric acid, a raw material, fell slightly in July, fluorite prices rose, aluminum fluoride costs stabilized, and cryolite prices stopped falling and rising; The cost of aluminum fluoride is adjusted, and the demand is stable. Generally speaking, the cost is temporarily stable, and the demand is general. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will stabilize in the future.

On July 27, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 100.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.76% from the highest point 108.17 in the cycle (2022-06-15), and up 236.31% from the lowest point 29.99 on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

July 6, 9300, -300

July 14, 9150, -150

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced twice in July 2022, with a total reduction of 450 yuan / ton. As of the press release, the implementation of Sinopec pure benzene was 9150 yuan / ton.

The crude oil market fell after the overall shock this month. As of the 27th, the international oil price rebounded overnight, WTI rose by more than 2%, and SC crude oil rose in the inner market. The main contract of SC crude oil rose by 4.05% to close at 678.5 yuan. Oil prices are still in a long and short tug of war, and the market is still worried about the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike, leading to a standoff at the $100 level; However, oil prices were supported by supply tightening concerns and the weakening US dollar. In the future, the crude oil analyst of business news agency believes that in the short term, it is difficult to alleviate the supply shortage pattern. Although the Libyan supply may rise, the supply elasticity of opec+ as a whole is still relatively limited. In the later stage, it is difficult to continue to improve production capacity. Driven by the supply shortage, the oil price may still have the upper action force in the near future. However, in the medium term, due to the weak demand caused by the global central bank’s interest rate hike, there are still many obstacles to the rise of oil prices.

In July 2022, the hydrogenated benzene market as a whole fluctuated downward, and the price fell again after a slight rebound at the end of the month. The ex factory price in North China was 9550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9062.5 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 5.1%.

Domestic market price of main hydrogenated benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Market / /, price on July 1, price on July 28, up and down

East China, 9450 ~ 9500, 8950 ~ 9050, -500

Shandong, 9250 ~ 9350, 8700 ~ 8750, -450

This month, the crude oil market fluctuated widely, and the overall trend was mainly downward. It drove the market price of pure benzene to decline in the first half of the month, and the price fell again after a slight rebound in the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, affected by the broad decline of crude oil, pure benzene in the external market followed the weakness, driving the focus of negotiation in the domestic market down. Due to the general transaction in Shandong, the price difference between Shandong and other regions widened, and the overall decline in the week was limited. Near the end of the month, the shipment of pure benzene in East China was tight, and the inventory of pure benzene in the port was low as a whole, with the inventory falling by 20000 tons in the week. The port has good enthusiasm for picking up goods, and the superposition of downstream purchase demand at the end of the month is acceptable. Pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling at the end of the month. However, the market expects the supply of pure benzene to increase in August, and poor negotiations on pure benzene in the far month limit the increase. The trend of hydrogenated benzene market this month basically followed that of pure benzene market. In terms of unit start-up, the crude benzene market was boosted by tight supply this month, and the high price consolidation trend was the main trend. Affected by cost pressure, the start-up of benzene hydrogenation enterprises declined as a whole this month, and some units entered the maintenance state. It is expected that the overall supply will be tight in the future.

In the aftermarket, the business news agency believes that the current crude oil price fluctuates widely, and the guidance for pure benzene and the industrial chain is weakened. The recent rise and fall of pure benzene are mainly affected by supply and demand. The recent supply of pure benzene is tight as a whole, and the downstream demand is weak as a whole. It is expected that the recent weak and volatile trend of pure benzene market is dominated.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of p-xylene fell in July. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9550 yuan / ton, down 4.50% from the price of 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 34.51% year-on-year. The PX price trend fell in July.

In July, the price of domestic paraxylene fell. On the whole, the on-site supply was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was in stable operation, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was in stable operation, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was in stable operation, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was in normal operation, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical was in stable operation, the unit of Qingdao Lidong was in full load operation, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical was in stable operation, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the operation of overseas units is normal. In addition, the domestic price of paraxylene has declined under the influence of crude oil. In July, the international crude oil price fell, and the PX external price fluctuated with the crude oil price. As of the 28th, the closing price was $1125-1127 / ton FOB South Korea and $1143-1145 / ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the domestic market price of paraxylene is lower.

In July, the international crude oil price declined by 8.04%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $97.26 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $101.67 / barrel. According to the EIA inventory data of the United States, the node refined oil unexpectedly surged during the peak driving season. In addition, the resumption of Beixi No. 1, the easing of the European energy crisis, which brought bad news to the oil market, and the concern about the decline in demand caused by the European Central Bank’s interest rate hike, it can be seen that the long and short performance of the oil market is quite sticky. Taken together, the crude oil price trend fell sharply in July, which affected the market price of paraxylene.

In July, the downstream PTA market price declined. As of the end of the month, the average PTA market price was 6100-6200 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 6.78% in July. In July, the operating rate of domestic PTA industry was below 73%, and the operation was too high, so there was overhaul expectation. Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton plant was overhauled on July 2, fuhaichuang 4.5 million ton plant was shut down in the evening of July 11, Ningbo Yisheng 2million ton plant is currently in shutdown state, Yadong Petrochemical 700000 ton plant load is 90%, and the restart time is to be determined; Baihong’s 2.5 million ton unit reduced its load to 80% and is expected to recover in one week. In July, the downstream polyester market fluctuated and fell, with a reversal at the end of the month. With the red of raw materials, the market ushered in a bottom rebound. Polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-200 yuan / ton. However, the inventory is still at a historically high level. According to statistics, the average total inventory of polyester filament is 35.5 days, an increase of 15.4 days compared with the same period last year. At present, the startup rate of most weaving factories is at a low level, and the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains around 50%. The downstream PTA price decline is bad for the domestic paraxylene market, and the domestic paraxylene market price trend has fallen.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business club, believes that the current crude oil cost is weak, but the start-up of polyester manufacturers in the downstream of the terminal market is declining, and the PTA price trend is falling. It is expected that the market price trend of paraxylene may continue to decline in the later period.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan this week was stable. On July 29, the average market price in Henan was 7650 yuan / ton, which was the same as the quotation at the beginning of the week, with an increase of 0.66% over the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

This week, the cryolite market has been operating on a wait-and-see basis. Cryolite enterprises have smooth shipments and stable quotations. Affected by the shortage of raw materials and high prices, cryolite production is under great pressure. Many manufacturers operate at low loads, cryolite inventories are tight, prices are high, downstream demand is stable, supporting the high price of cryolite, and the mentality of operators is more on a wait-and-see basis. As of July 29, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 8000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 7200-8600 yuan / ton, with stable prices in the range.

The upstream soda ash operated weakly. As of July 29, the average market price was about 2820 yuan / ton, and the price fell slightly during the week, down 1.40% from last weekend. The downstream continued to wait-and-see mentality, and had resistance to high priced soda ash. The demand was weak. The trading atmosphere on the floor was not high. Manufacturers offered profits and negotiated goods. The market focus shifted downward, and the price of soda ash operated weakly.

On the downstream side, the aluminum market improved this week. On July 22, the aluminum price was about 18633 yuan / ton, up 4.35% during the week. During the week, the good news about real estate stimulated the price rise, but at present, the pressure to remove the inventory still exists, the market performance is still strong in supply and weak in demand, and the aluminum market is volatile and finishing.

Aftermarket forecast

The domestic cryolite market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. Due to the shortage of raw materials and high fuel costs, the manufacturer’s production costs are large, the cryolite device operates at low load, the enterprise inventory is limited, the cryolite price operates at a high level, the downstream demand is stable, and the manufacturer’s shipment is pressureless. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the short-term cryolite market continues to operate at a high level.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the trend of domestic rare earth market price index fell this week, and the domestic rare earth industry continued to decline. On July 28, the rare earth index was 760 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 24.53% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 180.44% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

This week, the price of products in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of praseodymium and neodymium series, the mainstream in the rare earth market, fell. In terms of products:

As can be seen from the product price trend chart, the domestic prices of neodymium metal, praseodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide fell slightly. As of the 29th, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 860000 yuan / ton, which fell by 1.15% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.075 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.38%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 855000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.16%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 807500 yuan / ton, down 0.62% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 980000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.51%; The price of praseodymium metal was 1.155 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 2.53%. The domestic rare earth market continued to decline this week.

The price of rare earth in the domestic market fell slightly. Recently, the downstream procurement was not active, the number of new orders was relatively small, and the sentiment of being bought rose but not bought fell. The wait-and-see sentiment of magnetic material enterprises deepened, and the purchase intention was weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and other vehicles has shrunk, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the on-site prices continue to fall. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium has fallen sharply. The on-site separation enterprises actively offer less, purchase cautiously, the traders offer actively, some merchants intend to sell at a profit, and the metal factories have low purchase intention. The mentality is to wait and see the future market, and the market trend of light rare earths declines slightly.

The purchase orders of the downstream magnetic material industry have not improved, and rare earths are purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not buying down, the price trend on the floor has fallen sharply. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. The data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers shows that in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.522 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 29.7% and 34.4% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. The automobile production and sales increased sharply. Recently, the demand in the new energy field is general, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price fell slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China fell. As of the 29th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.315 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.64% this week; Dysprosium ferroalloy price is 2.31 million yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.08 million yuan / ton, which fell by 0.96% this week; This week, the price of terbium is mainly rising. The domestic price of terbium oxide is 13.9 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.6 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths fell slightly. The leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which made the domestic heavy rare earth market fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The reduction of this part of supply had little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market fell slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were all +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%), and it is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, up +23.2% year-on-year, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal factories, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government has issued policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of terminal new energy vehicles will be boosted in the later stage. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that the short-term downstream procurement is not active, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to decline, but in the long run, the rare earth industry is still supported.

In July, the domestic liquid ammonia market fell sharply, down 23.0%. Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu and other regions fell significantly, with a decline of more than 1000 yuan. Market supply increased significantly. However, there is no change in downstream demand, and agricultural demand is weak. Lower downstream prices, terminal prices have also declined. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 28, the current quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 3400-3600 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this month, the overall ammonia release in many places in China generally increased compared with last month, and the overall supply pressure increased. With the change of CO production units of some manufacturers in the middle of the month, the output is limited and the ammonia output is significantly increased. Anhui power rationing ended, and the output of liquid ammonia increased. In addition, the operating rates of many manufacturers in Shandong, Shanxi and other regions are concentrated, and the centralized reduction of prices stimulates shipments, resulting in abundant supply of goods in the market. Recently, the amount of ammonia is still recovering. Therefore, the surplus caused by the short-term surge in liquid ammonia supply is the biggest killer of price.

Cost side

The upstream coal price fluctuated downward, falling by 3.04% this month. The high coal price squeezed the downstream profits. However, at the same time, the state regulated the coal price and guided the coal price to return to a reasonable range. The downstream cost pressure is still large. At present, the downstream liquid ammonia has suffered a heavy decline, and the manufacturer’s profits have been significantly squeezed. The price of natural gas rose slightly this month, which eased the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of the business agency, LNG rose by 2.22% this month.

Demand side

In the end, domestic demand has entered the traditional off-season. According to the monitoring of business society, urea fell by 22.16% in July, and the fundamentals of urea supply and demand are unbalanced. On the one hand, the domestic urea supply remains abundant, while a small amount of domestic agricultural demand is difficult to support the overall situation. Superimposed on the bad export, the obvious decline of urea export volume and other reasons, the urea price has been falling again and again. The inventory level is also negative. Urea inventories in various regions are significantly higher. Under the pressure of inventory, urea enterprises continue to reduce prices and clear inventories. Urea fluctuated downward throughout the month.

From the above figure, it can be seen from the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the two resonate downward, with sharp declines. At present, the price difference remains at a reasonable level.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industrial chain showed a weak performance in July, with relatively strong cost performance. The prices of coal and natural gas were still high, bringing great pressure on the downstream. Due to the weakening of seasonal demand, liquid ammonia and downstream products such as urea (-21.16%) and ammonium chloride (-21.88%) fell strongly.

Aftermarket forecast

The business agency believes that in the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic ammonia market is still prominent, the entire chemical industry is depressed, and the general environment of sluggish downstream demand has suppressed the market. In addition, the export policy of chemical fertilizer has not been liberalized yet, and the domestic reservoir pressure has only increased. Recently, although enterprises in Henan, Hubei, Shanxi and other places have entered the maintenance period, a large number of units have resumed production in the same period, and the supply pressure is still in the later stage. It is expected that the market will run empty, which does not rule out the possibility that the ammonia price will continue to fall.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market continued to fall this week (7.18-7.25). As of July 25, the acrylonitrile price was 9820 yuan / ton, down 5.21% from 10360 yuan / ton last Monday. The supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry continued to be loose, downstream construction fell, market transactions were deadlocked, and traders sold their stocks at low prices. As of July 25, the offer of acrylonitrile bulk water market in East China was between 9100 and 10100 yuan / ton.

This week (7.18-7.25), the price of raw propylene fluctuated slightly and fell, with weak cost support. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 25, the domestic propylene price was 7340 yuan / ton, down 0.19% from 7354 yuan / ton last Monday.

Since July, the operating rate of downstream ABS has fallen to around 80%, and the operating rate of acrylic fiber and acrylamide industries has declined slightly, with a slightly weak demand side, but there is still some support for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile supply side continues to be under pressure.

Future forecast: the acrylonitrile analyst of business agency believes that the current supply area cost pressure restricts the action force of acrylonitrile, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile price will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong rose from 8100.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8666.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 7.00%, a year-on-year decrease of 52.21% over the same period last year. On July 24, the isooctanol commodity index was 63.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.65% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 81.31% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is enhanced

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers increased slightly this week: the octanol device of Jianlan chemical is under maintenance; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 8600 yuan / ton, which is 600 yuan / ton higher than that of last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 8800 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, up 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7634.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7340.60 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.85%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Judging from the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 8775.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9172.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 4.53%, down 39.79% year-on-year from the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices rose sharply, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol increased.

The upstream support is general, the downstream demand is enhanced, and isooctanol is bullish in the future

In late July, Shandong isooctanol market rose slightly. Although the upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support was general, the downstream DOP market rose slightly and the downstream demand increased. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business society, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market fell from 11200.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 11066.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.19%. On July 24, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 53.33, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 48.53% from the peak of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Prices of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers fell this week.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market this week fell from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.51%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In late July, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of business agency believes that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term neopentyl glycol market, the market price may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.