According to the monitoring of business agency, the trend of domestic rare earth market price index fell this week, and the domestic rare earth industry continued to decline. On July 28, the rare earth index was 760 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 24.53% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 180.44% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

This week, the price of products in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of praseodymium and neodymium series, the mainstream in the rare earth market, fell. In terms of products:

As can be seen from the product price trend chart, the domestic prices of neodymium metal, praseodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide fell slightly. As of the 29th, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 860000 yuan / ton, which fell by 1.15% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.075 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.38%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 855000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.16%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 807500 yuan / ton, down 0.62% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 980000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.51%; The price of praseodymium metal was 1.155 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 2.53%. The domestic rare earth market continued to decline this week.

The price of rare earth in the domestic market fell slightly. Recently, the downstream procurement was not active, the number of new orders was relatively small, and the sentiment of being bought rose but not bought fell. The wait-and-see sentiment of magnetic material enterprises deepened, and the purchase intention was weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and other vehicles has shrunk, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the on-site prices continue to fall. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium has fallen sharply. The on-site separation enterprises actively offer less, purchase cautiously, the traders offer actively, some merchants intend to sell at a profit, and the metal factories have low purchase intention. The mentality is to wait and see the future market, and the market trend of light rare earths declines slightly.

The purchase orders of the downstream magnetic material industry have not improved, and rare earths are purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not buying down, the price trend on the floor has fallen sharply. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. The data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers shows that in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.522 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 29.7% and 34.4% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. The automobile production and sales increased sharply. Recently, the demand in the new energy field is general, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price fell slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China fell. As of the 29th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.315 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.64% this week; Dysprosium ferroalloy price is 2.31 million yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.08 million yuan / ton, which fell by 0.96% this week; This week, the price of terbium is mainly rising. The domestic price of terbium oxide is 13.9 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.6 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths fell slightly. The leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which made the domestic heavy rare earth market fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The reduction of this part of supply had little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market fell slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were all +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%), and it is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, up +23.2% year-on-year, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal factories, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government has issued policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of terminal new energy vehicles will be boosted in the later stage. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that the short-term downstream procurement is not active, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to decline, but in the long run, the rare earth industry is still supported.