The price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week, and the market of acetic anhydride fell. As of April 18, the price of acetic anhydride was 8150.00 yuan / ton, down 0.61% from 8200.00 yuan / ton on April 10 at the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials fell, and the acetic anhydride market fell this week.

The price of raw material acetic acid fluctuated and fell

It can be seen from the correlation statistics of business society that the correlation coefficient between acetic anhydride and acetic acid is 0.941, and acetic anhydride and acetic acid are highly positively correlated. As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell this week, with the price of acetic acid falling by 3.07%. Affected by control, the logistics and transportation were not smooth, the shipment of acetic acid manufacturers was blocked, the demand was weak, the high price of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

The price of raw material methanol fluctuated and fell

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of business society, the methanol price fluctuated and fell this week. On April 18, the methanol price was 2805.00 yuan / ton, down 7.20% from 3022.50 yuan / ton on April 10 at the beginning of the week. At the end of the heating season, the high price in the global energy market fell, and the domestic methanol price followed the decline. This week, the methanol price fluctuated and fell, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, the high global energy price fell this week, the price of methanol fell, the negative production of acetic acid enterprises decreased, and the downward pressure of acetic acid price increased. Affected by control, acetic acid enterprises had difficulty in shipping, the downstream demand for acetic acid was weak, and the downward pressure of acetic acid increased; The price of acetic anhydride raw materials fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and adjusted near the process cost line. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride fell this week, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

This week’s spot tin market price (4.8-4.15) fluctuated. The average price of the domestic market was 341430 yuan / ton last weekend and 343830 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.7% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 15th week of 2022 (4.11-4.15), there are seven kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including one kind with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were nickel (10.71%), zinc (3.15%) and silver (2.77%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 5 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were dysprosium (- 11.07%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 6.39%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 5.78%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.47%.

Tin futures market on April 15, 2022

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai tin, 343000 yuan / ton- 760, 3045 tons

London tin, US $43400 / ton- 130., 2665 tons

In terms of futures market: at the beginning of the week, the metal market was generally under pressure and the overall performance was poor. The price of Lunxi was dragged down. After that, the fundamental crude oil rose again, which boosted the market mentality and the tin market rebounded.

In terms of supply and demand, the transportation in Shanghai is still limited, and the overall trading of the market is weak. On the supply side, the market expects that with the improvement of the import side in April, the overall supply will improve to a certain extent after some Indonesian sources enter the market. On the demand side, the previously affected enterprises in Shenzhen have resumed production recently, but the downstream demand has not fully recovered due to various factors. Therefore, the market is mainly on the sidelines, and it is expected that the tin price will remain high and volatile in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 14133.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 14600.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3.30%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde prices rose slightly this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 14500 yuan / ton, which increased by 1100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde’s ex factory quotation this weekend is 14800 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 14500 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 8494.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 8441.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.63%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 17666.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 17533.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.75%. The neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late April may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support weakened. The downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

From April 8 to April 15, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China decreased from 8600 yuan / ton last weekend to 8387.5 yuan / ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 2.47%.

Price of main domestic hydrogenated benzene market from April 8 to April 15 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on April 8, Price on April 15, Rise and fall

East China, 8500～8550., 8350～8400.,- one hundred and fifty

Shandong Province, 8300～8400., 8050～8150.,- two hundred and fifty

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

March 16, 8200.,-400

March 22, 8400.,+200

March 24, 8600.,+200

April 12, 8450.,-150

On April 12, 2022, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton and 8450 yuan / ton was implemented.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8250 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 8500 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical offers 8250 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8303 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8350 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8550 yuan / ton.

On April 14, the price of international crude oil futures closed up. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $106.95/barrel, up US $2.70 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.70/barrel, up US $2.92 or 2.7%. As of Thursday, oil prices rose for three consecutive times, rising nearly 9% on the weekly line. It is reported that the EU may draft a bill banning the import of Russian oil. The expectation of oil product shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has surfaced again, and the oil price has been strongly supported.

Crude oil prices first fell and then rose this week. After falling on Monday, they began to rebound on Tuesday. Although crude oil continued to rise and cost support strengthened, due to public health events in various parts of China, the operating load in the downstream of pure benzene is low, and the overall demand for pure benzene is relatively light. Therefore, although the fundamentals are good, the downstream performance is poor. The rise of pure benzene price this week is blocked, and the price is mainly sideways. The mainstream price of domestic pure benzene this week is 8250-8550 yuan / ton. The price of hydrogenated benzene is mainly affected by pure benzene. Among them, the shipment of enterprises in Shandong is poor and the price is low. The hydrogenated benzene market is also under pressure and the price is low as a whole. Sinopec lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene to 8450 yuan / ton within the week, which once again affected the market mentality. At present, the overall market trading is general, and the fundamentals are good and the support is limited. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the international crude oil market, the external market, the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

The consolidation operation of the domestic MIBK market has not changed much this week, and the actual order has declined in a narrow range. The market reference offer in East China is around 13500-13800 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market mixed offer in East China was 13966 yuan / ton on April 4 and 13900 yuan / ton on April 11, down 0.48% this week. On the whole, the market this week was affected by logistics and transportation, and the actual orders were limited, and the overall weakness was adjusted.

Raw material acetone market declined in a narrow range. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of acetone market in East China was 5650 yuan / ton on April 4 and 5600 yuan / ton on April 11, a decrease of 0.88% during the month. The decline after the festival was mainly due to the increase of shipment pressure under the influence of logistics and the pressure of cargo holders. Up to now, the offer in East China market is about 5550 yuan / ton, that in South China is 5750 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong is 5700 yuan / ton

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

This week, Zhenjiang Li Changrong plant was restarted on the 5th, and the supply was gradually restored. There is no pressure on the inventory of other factories for the time being. From the perspective of East China, the logistics pressure is still large, the raw materials in some regions are difficult to enter and exit, the pressure of goods holders is large, the mentality is under pressure, the downstream follow-up is limited, and the negotiation is deadlocked and goes down.

From the perspective of business society, the market is still in a narrow range of shock operation. At present, MIBK enterprise inventory is low and the short-term supply pressure is not large. If the transaction price between the factory and antioxidant rises in the later stage, the market confidence will be supported. However, under the influence of logistics, the demand side is under pressure, and the pressure of terminal shipment is still large. It is expected that there will be a stalemate in the short term.

At the beginning of April, the domestic propane market fluctuated upward, the overall market in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then restraining, and the price was stable as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6698.25 yuan / ton on April 1 and 6858.25 yuan / ton on April 8, with an increase of 2.39% and 50.05% compared with the same period last year.

As of April 8, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, April 8th

East China, . 6450-6850 yuan / ton

North China, 6650-6900 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 6700-6950 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6000-6500 yuan / ton

At the beginning of April, the domestic propane market was dominated on the whole, and the market price of propane in Shandong increased first and then decreased. At present, the positive market is limited. With the introduction of CP price in April, propylene butane rose, bringing obvious support to the domestic market. However, the international crude oil price is mainly volatile, and the benefits brought by the cost are limited. At present, there is little change in market supply and weak demand. Due to the impact of public health time in Shandong, the shipment situation has been blocked, which has brought some resistance to the rising market. At present, the trend of the northern market is stronger than that of the southern market.

Saudi Aramco announced in April 2022 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 940 USD / T, up 45 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 960 US dollars / ton, up 40 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

On the whole, the introduction of CP price rise in April has brought some support to the market. The domestic propane market is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period, but the benefits brought to the market by the fluctuation of international crude oil trend are limited. In addition, the terminal demand is weak and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is limited. It is expected that the propane market may still weaken in the short term.

DBP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DBP fluctuated and fell this week, and the overall DBP market weakened. As of April 11, the price of DBP was 10366.67 yuan / ton, down 3.27% from 10716.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (April 4); Compared with the price of 10800.00 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of DBP decreased by 4.01%. Overall, the price of DBP fell this week, and the plasticizer market fluctuated and weakened.

In April, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of n-butanol fell in April, and the market of n-butanol fell. On April 11, the price of n-butanol was 9366.67 yuan / ton, down 2.09% from 9566.67 yuan / ton on April 1. In April, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell, the cost of DBP fell, and the pressure of DBP price decline increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in April

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in April. As of April 11, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8500 yuan / ton, down 2.72% from 8737.50 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. In April, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, the cost of DBP fell, the cost support of DBP weakened, the rising power of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Future expectations

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, due to the impact of the epidemic, the start-up of plasticizer industrial chain declined, the overall supply and demand were weak, the prices of downstream n-butanol and phthalic anhydride fell, the prices of raw materials fell, the cost of plasticizer DBP fell, and the price of DBP fell. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of DBP industrial chain are both weak, the cost of DBP has decreased, and the price of DBP is expected to fluctuate and fall in the future.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan decreased slightly this week. On April 8, the average market price in Henan was 7475 yuan / ton, down 75 yuan / ton from 7550 yuan / ton last weekend, a decrease of 0.99%, and the price increased by 2.40% month on month.

quotations analysis

Domestic cryolite market wait-and-see consolidation. During the week, the quotation of main enterprises in Henan Province was temporarily stable, and the quotation of individual enterprises was slightly reduced according to their shipment. At present, the manufacturer’s production cost pressure is large, the enterprise inventory is low, the quotation is high, the downstream market is mainly purchased on demand, and the enterprise shipment is OK. Most enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the market quotation remains high. As of April 8, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 7200-8500 yuan / ton. The price will be reduced by 300 yuan / ton within the week.

The upstream soda ash market was consolidated and operated. As of April 8, the average market price was about 2616 yuan / ton, and the price rose slightly during the week. The soda ash price was mainly stable this week, the market situation was stable and small, and the downstream followed up as needed. The market trading atmosphere was acceptable, the manufacturers shipped flexibly, and the market transaction price was slightly explored.

Downstream, the aluminum market continued to decline this week. On April 7, the aluminum price was 22036.67 yuan / ton, down 3.09% from the beginning of the month. Affected by public health events, logistics and transportation are blocked, enterprises have difficulties in shipping, weekly outbound volume is reduced, aluminum social inventory is accumulated, and the aluminum market is sorted out downward.

Future forecast

The operating rate of domestic cryolite market is low, the enterprise inventory is low, the downstream demand is stable, and the enterprise quotation is strong. Because the cost pressure still exists, it is expected that the cryolite market will continue to be high and wait-and-see consolidation, and pay specific attention to the downstream demand.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride declined this week. As of the weekend, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8500 yuan / ton, down 2.72% from the price of 8737.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 36.82% year-on-year. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined recently.

This week, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to fall, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field was general, the price trend of downstream DOP market fell slightly, the price trend of orthobenzene fell, the plasticizer market fell, the downstream trend fell, which was bad for the domestic phthalic anhydride market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, and the actual transaction has little change. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride in East China has declined, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 8500-8600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 8300-8400 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8500-8600 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The price trend of phthalic anhydride decreases, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride decreases slightly.

This week, the price trend of domestic orthobenzene fell, with the on-site price of 8600 yuan / ton, down 4.44% from the price of 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The decline of domestic orthobenzene price is a bad factor in the phthalic anhydride market. Recently, the market trend of imported orthobenzene in the port area fell, the external quotation of orthobenzene fell, and the inventory of orthobenzene in the port area has not changed much recently. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The price trend of orthobenzene has declined after detailed discussion on the actual list, Domestic phthalic anhydride prices fell slightly.

This week, the market price trend of DOP in the downstream of phthalic anhydride decreased. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 12250 yuan / ton by the end of the week, with a price decrease of 0.41%. The operation of DOP enterprises in the field was stable, the supply of DOP was normal, the price of isooctanol decreased, the cost of DOP raw materials decreased slightly, the operation of DOP enterprises was normal, the supply of DOP was sufficient, the PVC price was temporarily stable, the downstream demand was stable, and the market transaction was general. The upward momentum of plasticizer DOP market still exists, and the downward pressure is weakened. The transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The DOP price is 12100-12400 yuan / ton. This week, the DOP price trend declined slightly, and the affected price of phthalic anhydride market declined slightly.

On the whole, the recent price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, but the market trend of downstream plasticizer industry is stable, coupled with the downward trend of crude oil market. Affected by this, the market situation of phthalic anhydride is favorable and the support is insufficient. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be stable in the later stage.

On April 6, the international crude oil futures market fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $96.23/barrel, down US $5.73 or 5.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $101.07/barrel, down US $5.73 or 5.6%. The minutes of the Fed meeting sent a hawk signal that the strengthening of the US dollar is expected to heat up. More importantly, major oil consuming countries said they would release a large number of crude oil reserves, and the tightening of supply is expected to ease. Oil prices remain under pressure.

Minutes of the Fed’s radical interest rate hike

On Wednesday, the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve showed that Fed officials had reached a consensus on the pace of reducing the balance sheet, that is, it may be appropriate to reduce the balance sheet by up to $95 billion a month, and opened the door to raising interest rates by 50 basis points. Once the news was released, the capital market generally shook and the three major stock indexes generally fell. The US dollar strengthened and risk assets such as crude oil were dragged down.

International Energy Agency (IEA) releases reserves on a large scale to ease supply pressure

The director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that after the United States announced the 180 million barrel oil release plan last week, IEA Member States agreed to release another 60 million barrels of oil reserves in order to curb the rise of oil prices. This is the second time that the United States and IEA members will coordinate the release of oil reserves in a month, which means that more than 1 million barrels of crude oil will be put on the market every day in the next six months. The pressure on crude oil supply is expected to ease in the short term.

Where will oil prices go in the future?

The main logic of the future oil price trend is still the evolution of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. The main factor affecting oil prices is still the tightening of supply caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The sanctions imposed by European and American countries on Russia are almost full, and the market estimates may lead to a reduction of 2-3 million barrels of Russian oil exports. In early April, Europe also tried to increase sanctions against Russia. If the sanctions are further upgraded, Russia’s oil supply will further decline and the supply gap may continue to expand. Considering that the United States announced the release of 180 million barrels at the end of March, plus 60 million barrels in other Member States, with an average daily increment of 1.3 million barrels / day, it is also difficult to make up for the reduction of Russia affected by the sanctions. As long as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, it is difficult to cancel the sanctions, and the tightening of supply trend in the future will still be good for oil prices.

In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have always been cautious in increasing production. OPEC + increased production by only 90000 barrels / day in March. The latest meeting on March 31 was still to implement the previous gradual production increase mode and release production capacity at the rate of 432000 barrels / day. With regard to OPEC + policy, on the one hand, due to the expectation of high oil prices, the organization’s willingness to increase production has always been weak. In addition, there are some practical difficulties in increasing OPEC + production. For example, the unrest in some member countries such as Kazakhstan and Libya also increases the difficulty of increasing production. Overall, OPEC is also difficult to bring substantial benefits to the supply pattern in the future.

On the demand side, the main tone of sustained economic recovery has not changed. After the liberalization of restrictions in Europe and the United States, the traffic demand is still in a period of growth. In particular, the aviation flight volume in Europe and the United States is rapidly returning to normal, which has promoted the recovery of aviation coal demand. The operating rate of refineries in the United States also continued to rise. As of the week of March 27, the operating rate of refineries increased from 91.1% to 92.1%. Domestic demand has been suppressed to a certain extent due to the impact of public health events, but this is only a short-term impact. Globally, demand still shows an increasing trend, and the growth rate is expected to slow down. In the long run, economic recovery will bring oil price demand back to the level before the epidemic. The crude oil analyst of business agency believes that the oil price is still disturbed by the news in the short term and intensifies the shock, but the medium and long term will continue to maintain a strong market due to the positive impact of supply and demand fundamentals.