Zinc prices rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc market fluctuated and rose this week, and the zinc price rose. As of March 7, the price of zinc was 26540 yuan / ton, up 6.12% from 25010 yuan / ton on February 28 last week. Zinc ingot inventory in zinc city increased this week, and the downward pressure on zinc price remains.

Zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market increased sharply

time . Futures inventory Increase or decrease

February 28th . one hundred and six thousand nine hundred and forty-six .- one thousand six hundred and seven

March 1st . one hundred and six thousand three hundred and twenty – six hundred and twenty-six

March 2nd . one hundred and six thousand three hundred and twenty . 0

March 3rd . one hundred and nine thousand two hundred and fifty-eight . two thousand nine hundred and thirty-eight

March 4th . one hundred and ten thousand nine hundred and forty-eight . one thousand six hundred and ninety

March 7th . one hundred and fourteen thousand six hundred and fifty-one . three thousand seven hundred and three

According to the zinc ingot inventory data sheet of Shanghai futures market, as of March 7, the zinc ingot futures inventory of Shanghai futures market was 114651 tons. In March, the zinc ingot inventory increased greatly, the inventory of Shanghai futures market increased, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, and the pressure of zinc price decline remained.

Russia Ukraine conflict intensifies European energy crisis

The deterioration of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia will affect the European energy supply, and the European natural gas market will be hit hard. Considering that Russia’s natural gas exports to Europe (pipeline gas + LNG) account for nearly 1 / 3 of its total demand, if the natural gas supply from Russia is seriously blocked, the already high European gas price will soar again. The sharp rise in natural gas prices drives up the price of electricity. The rise in zinc smelting costs may lead to further production reduction of zinc smelting in Europe. The output of zinc ingots in Europe is expected to decrease and the supply of zinc in the future is expected to decrease.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that this week, the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market rose, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, and the downward pressure on zinc price remained. The price of zinc ingot in Russia is expected to rise, and the supply of zinc ingot in Europe is expected to decrease.

The domestic aggregate MDI market price is low and mainly sorted out. The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and it is difficult to open the demand side in a short time. At present, the sales of goods in the trade link are not smooth, and the social inventory begins to increase slowly. Although the listing price of major production enterprises remained stable in March and the settlement was high in February, it is difficult to support the market price.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, on February 25 and March 4, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell from 20500 yuan / ton to 19833 yuan / ton. The price fell by 3.25% during the week, 6.36% month on month and 22.98% year-on-year.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of March 4:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong . 19600-19800 yuan / ton . 19000 yuan / ton

East China . 19600-19800 yuan / ton . 19000 yuan / ton

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene rose. The core reason for the price rise is the sharp rise in crude oil caused by the situation in Ukraine, and the cost side promotes the price upward. However, due to the lack of downstream demand, the rise and fall of pure benzene mainly follow the fluctuation of downstream styrene in the short term, and the overall rise is weaker than that of crude oil.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: the domestic aniline Market is weak, the raw material pure benzene is restrained first and then raised, and the cost support is acceptable. Due to the limited terminal profit in the downstream, the operating load is low. It is just necessary to buy raw aniline. The buying gas of Huabei aniline is light, and some factories make profits in the downstream and ship at a low price.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000 T / a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market may still be in the doldrums.

In February, domestic butyl acetate rose first and then fell. After the festival, the price of butyl acetate increased significantly due to the impact of the sharp rise in the cost of n-butanol, as well as the partial closure of the manufacturer and the reduction of supply. The price of butyl acetate increased significantly, with an increase of more than 12% in the first week after the Spring Festival in February. With the continuous decline of n-butanol price and the impact of sharp decline of acetic acid, after the start-up and normalization of the manufacturer’s device, butyl gradually fell, and the weak market continued to the end of the month. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate increased by 2.93% this month. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 10200-10500 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, acetic acid and n-butanol are out of the market. Domestic acetic acid continued to decline in February. According to the monitoring of business society, East China acetic acid fell as much as 25.05% this month. After the festival, the profits of acetic acid enterprises continued to decline, and the supply of domestic acetic acid enterprises was sufficient in the whole month, resulting in a passive situation of oversupply in the market, and the downward price compressed their own profits. The demand side is also bad. Affected by the Winter Olympic Games, the downstream construction is insufficient, and the demand is obviously lower. The contradiction between supply and demand led to continuous price reduction and shipment of acetic acid.

However, from the perspective of upstream n-butanol and curve, butyl acetate is highly consistent with n-butanol. After the festival, n-butanol ushered in a sharp rise, with a maximum increase of more than 27% in February. The market continued to fall in the middle and late ten days, which is also an important reason for the fall after the rise of ethyl acetate price.

In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers remained stable this month, and the market supply and demand remained relatively balanced, which still supported the price of butyl acetate. However, in terms of demand, the downstream factories started normally, and the market was limited to just needed buying. The market trading was not active, the demand follow-up was insufficient, and the market did not substantially improve. Yes, the rise and fall of butyl acetate mainly comes from the guidance of the cost of n-butanol.

Future forecast: at present, the price of raw material n-butanol retreats, acetic acid is weak, and butyl acetate Market is also weak. It may be difficult to get rid of the depressed market in the short term. The main downstream demand is weak. Although the downstream demand has followed up after the Winter Olympic Games, the supply and demand is still dominated by oversupply compared with the high inventory and the improvement of butyl ester operating rate. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic butyl acetate Market will be adjusted weakly in the short term, and the trend of dual raw materials still needs to be paid attention to in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated higher in February. At the beginning of the month, the market was 7750 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 8375 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 8.06%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business society, the overall trend of propylene market fluctuated upward in February, especially in the latter ten days, the price broke through the 8000 yuan mark, and the price further rose. In early February, the downstream of propylene market began to resume driving after the festival. Affected by natural weather and transportation constraints, the supply of propylene in the region was tight, and the price of propylene was tight and rising. In the middle of the year, with the gradual resumption of construction in the market and the increase of supply, the market began to return to normal. At the same time, the downstream polypropylene market was general, the product price continued to hang upside down, and the propylene price gradually corrected. In the latter half of the year, the cost pressure of downstream polypropylene was slightly relieved, driving the improvement of downstream demand. In addition, some other favorable factors jointly boosted the trading of propylene market, and the price stopped falling and rising.

Upstream crude oil, propane and liquefied gas all rose to varying degrees. Among them, crude oil, which has a great impact on the price of propylene, rose by 8.41% in February, liquefied gas and propane rose by 8.3% and 5% respectively, and methanol fell by 0.45%. The cost of raw materials is high, the profitability of propylene industry is low, and the cost support is strong.

Downstream products, except propylene and phenol, rose in varying degrees. Polypropylene rose by 1.07%, which was relatively small. The polypropylene market did not improve significantly, and it was difficult for propylene prices to rise further in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: in general, the market of downstream products needs to be improved, especially polypropylene, and the overall demand side pull is limited. At present, the propylene price is on the high side, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the propylene price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the future under the support of cost.

In February, the domestic liquid ammonia market maintained a range shock, and the trading focus shifted slightly higher than that in January. According to the monitoring of business agency, the liquid ammonia rose by 1.35% this month. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia was 4100-4350 yuan / ton. On the one hand, during the Winter Olympics, the supply in the North was tightened, which led to the warming of the market and the general recovery of ammonia city after the festival. In addition, after the festival, the downstream preparation also pushed up the ammonia price. After the middle of the year, due to the increase of construction in Shandong, the amount of ammonia in the North increased, and the prices in Shanxi, Hebei and other places fell. The market shock continued until the end of the month.

On the supply side, the overall supply of this month is tight before loose. During the Winter Olympics, some factories in the north were shut down. In addition, transportation was subject to certain restrictions, which also led to a general rise in ammonia prices. The supply in the South was loose. In the middle of the month, the supply was tightened and the ammonia price rebounded due to the impact of export driven and Jiujiang parking. Generally speaking, the centralized maintenance devices in February were concentrated in Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia.

On the cost side, coal continued to decline in February. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 1167.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was about 900 yuan / ton, down 22.91% and up 56.05% year-on-year. On the one hand, after the Spring Festival, the mine resumed production one after another, which was affected by the increase of supply. In addition, affected by the policy, the coal price decreased significantly. Lower coal prices have eased the cost pressure of downstream methanol, liquid ammonia and other coal chemical industries.

From the demand side, the mainstream ex factory price of urea first rose and then fell this month: the quotation first rose from 2644.00 yuan / ton on February 1 to 2700.00 yuan / ton on February 11, up 56 yuan / ton, up 2.12%, and then fell to 2662.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 1.41%, up 21.55% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. There is still a downward trend at the end of the month. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is wait-and-see, and industrial demand is enhanced. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer use has entered the peak season, but the national development and Reform Commission emphasizes the work of ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of chemical fertilizer. The price of urea has fallen slightly recently. Affected by the rise or fall of buying, dealers are not active in taking goods, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. On the whole, urea is still weak, which has a negative impact on the ammonia Market to a certain extent.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since February, the range between them has narrowed slightly, and the trend of liquid ammonia is slightly stronger than that of urea.

Future forecast: the business community believes that some ammonia enterprises have maintenance or load reduction plans in March, and the re contraction of supply will be good for the ammonia Market. At the same time, in the peak farming season, the production of compound fertilizer will speed up and the purchase of raw materials will be strengthened. However, considering the decline of upstream coal due to regulation, the market mentality may be negatively affected, which will limit the rebound of ammonia price. Overall, the ammonia market may continue to improve in March.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8450 yuan / ton on February 28, down 0.12% from 8460 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4.25% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the PVC market rose rapidly after the Spring Festival, but the rising market continued for a short time. It continued to decline from the middle of the year to the end of the month, showing a roller coaster market. The market was relatively volatile this month. During the Spring Festival, crude oil rose, and the macro atmosphere was good, which boosted market sentiment and raised the offer of enterprises. After the festival, although the downstream products industry has resumed work and production one after another, the resumption of work in North China has been delayed due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games, and the overall market demand has not improved as expected. In the middle of the year, with the weakening of the macro atmosphere, the current PVC market has declined. In addition, PVC manufacturers have started steadily recently, the market supply is loose, and the price of raw calcium carbide has fallen, which further exacerbated the downward trend of PVC, The atmosphere of market transaction has weakened. By the end of the month, the price of raw calcium carbide had fallen to around 4050-4150 yuan / ton. The quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8300-8800 yuan / ton. The price of pvc5 calcium carbide in Tianjin was 8520-8570 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou was 8600-8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Changzhou was 8650-8700 yuan / ton, Recently, market prices across the country have fallen steadily.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from December 6, 2021 to February 27, 2022, the domestic PVC cycle has been mixed, with the largest decrease of 2.54% in the week of December 13 and 3.84% in the week of February 7, 2022, and then continued to decline.

region . workmanship . 2 / 28 (yuan / ton) 2 / 7 (yuan / ton) . Rise and fall . remarks

East China . Calcium carbide method 8500-8750 . 9100-9250. – 600/-500 . Ex warehouse

south China . Calcium carbide method . 8550-8750 . 9100-9150 .- 600/-400 . Ex warehouse

North China . Calcium carbide method . 8500-8550 . 8900-8950. – 400/-400 . Deliver

southwest . Calcium carbide method . 8500-8750. 9000-9100 .- 400/-350 . Deliver

At present, the external price of CFR China is stable at US $1300 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia is up 10 at US $1320 / ton, and CFR India is up 20 at US $1560 / ton.

International crude oil, on February 25, the price of international crude oil futures fell. Us WTI crude oil futures contract settlement price in April was US $91.59/barrel, down US $1.22 or 1.31%; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract in April was US $95.42/barrel, down US $1.15 or 1.20%.

For ethylene, the external ethylene market showed an overall upward trend this week. Asian ethylene market prices rose. As of the 24th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1256-1266 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1226-1236 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 24th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1318-1328 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1197-1205 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated slightly. As of the 24th, the price was 805-823 yuan / ton. This week, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose, which was mainly affected by the upstream crude oil market. The price was chaotic. The decline of ethylene in Europe led to the decline of ethylene market.

Calcium carbide, in mid and early March, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The prices of upstream raw materials coke and blue carbon fell slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide was insufficient. The downstream 1,4 butanediol market rose slightly, the PVC market was mainly sorted out, and the downstream demand was general. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of March.

3、 Future forecast

According to PVC analysts of business society, the demand expectation of PVC market in February was insufficient, the supply side was slightly loose, the price of raw materials fell, and the fundamentals were weak. However, in March, the external market was strong and the downstream demand continued to improve. It is expected that the PVC market may pick up, and the specific information guidance needs to be paid attention to.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide is stable and small this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 20850 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 20800 yuan / ton. The price decreased slightly within the month, with a range of 0.24%.

2、 Market analysis

The titanium dioxide market was basically stable this month, with a slight decrease. At present, the titanium dioxide market is still dominated by export, and manufacturers mainly issue early orders. The trading situation in the domestic market is acceptable. Traders are more cautious in taking goods, wait-and-see, and purchase more on demand in the downstream. The price remains stable. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 20000-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 18200-19500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to single negotiation. Recently, international titanium dioxide enterprises fannengtuo and Connors sent a letter to raise the price of titanium dioxide on April 1, which will benefit the domestic titanium dioxide market.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area increased this month. The titanium ore market is acceptable, the downstream market demand is acceptable, and the purchase is mainly on demand. Manufacturers send more early orders, small and medium-sized miners are slightly nervous about the spot, and the reluctance to sell is obvious. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1550 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2400-2420 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2450-2550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate will continue to be high and firm, and the actual transaction price will be discussed.

In terms of sulfuric acid, according to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 726.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 790 yuan / ton. The price increased within the month, with a range of 8.72%. The price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers rose this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was small. The downstream market has ups and downs, mainly sorting, and the downstream has general enthusiasm for sulfuric acid procurement. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term sulfuric acid market, the sulfuric acid market may rise slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that the spot market of titanium ore continues to be tight, the price rises, the price of sulfuric acid also continues to rise, and the cost support performance is strong. At the same time, export orders performed well, and international titanium dioxide enterprises fannengtuo and Connors sent a letter to increase the price of titanium dioxide, which was superimposed by positive factors. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will run steadily and well in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be mainly discussed.

The price of propylene oxide rose 16.00% year-on-year to 24.00% in the three-month period ending on November 2, according to the data of the bulk chlorine agency.

In February, epichlorohydrin market rose first and then fell. After the festival, the price of raw material propylene rose, the glycerol market operated strongly, the cost support increased, the manufacturers had no pressure, the downstream terminals resumed work one after another, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement increased, the market mentality improved, and the market price of epichlorohydrin increased. As the downstream just needs replenishment after the festival, the enthusiasm of market inquiry and procurement is weakened, the consumption is about long and the inventory is dominated, the mentality of cargo holders is under pressure, the price of epichlorohydrin is lower, the downstream demand is not followed up in the latter ten days, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the market is weak.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of business society, the reference price of propylene was 7984.00 on February 23, up 3.01% compared with February 1 (7750.80). After another decline in the domestic propylene price, the market began to stop falling and rebound, of which propylene (Shandong) rose to 8000-8050 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the price of crude oil is rising and the cost pressure is increasing; On the other hand, the downstream returned to normal, the terminal procurement continued to follow up, and the price rose with the trend.

For downstream epoxy resin, on February 23, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was light, and the actual order fell negatively. The low offer fell 200-300 again, and the negotiation was 28000-28600 yuan / ton. Raw material bisphenol A fell, the market offer was 18200 yuan / ton, and cyclic chlorine fell. The cost side is weak and the actual single transaction is insufficient.

The epichlorohydrin analyst of business society believes that the current cost side has certain support. With the price falling to a low level, the market inquiry atmosphere is improved, and the downstream inventory and replenishment expectation, it is expected that the market of epichlorohydrin may stop falling and sort out in the short term. More attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14275 yuan / ton on February 14 and 13837 yuan / ton on February 21. The price of caprolactam fell 3.06% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam prices fell this week. The price of raw material pure benzene fell and the cost support was insufficient. There is a large spot supply of caprolactam, and the market focus continues to move downward. The downstream PA6 chip market is poor, and the demand for caprolactam is reduced. As of February 21, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 14500 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14500 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14500 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam quoted 13150 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The price of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam bulk water is 13800 yuan / ton, which is accepted and sent to East China, and the manufacturer’s unit capacity is 300000 tons / year.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene continued to decline, with an obvious decline. Affected by the rise of crude oil at the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene opened higher. However, due to the rapid rise in the early stage and insufficient support on the demand side, the uncertainty of the trend of superimposed crude oil increased, the guidance for pure benzene weakened, and the price of styrene fell, and pure benzene followed the downward trend. Local refining enterprises in Shandong Province generally ship goods, with inventory accumulation and mentality. This week, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 7750 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, the supply and demand side of caprolactam is under pressure, and the spot price has fallen. The price of raw material pure benzene was lowered, and the downstream PA6 chip market was depressed. Under various bad conditions, caprolactam is weak and the confidence in the field is insufficient. The caprolactam market is expected to be weak in the short term, mainly running downward.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of February 22, the average price of melamine enterprises was 13166.67 yuan / ton, down 13.15% compared with last Tuesday (February 15), up 27.83% compared with January 22, and down 24.90% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The melamine market has fallen recently. Recently, the price of raw material urea is weak, the cost support is general, the downstream demand is light, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, the focus of market negotiation is lower, the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the downstream is mainly cautious, the procurement enthusiasm is weakened, and the market trading atmosphere is not good.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market fell slightly on February 21. On February 21, the reference price of urea was 2664.00, up 0.76% compared with February 1 (2644.00).

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is limited, the demand performance is weak, coupled with the expectation of increased supply, and the market mentality is under pressure. It is expected that the melamine market may be weak in the short term.