According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and consolidated this week, rising slightly. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1176.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1187.75/t, up 0.98%. The current price rose by 5.55% month on month, and the current price rose by 66.35% year-on-year.

Recently, the external ethylene market as a whole showed a volatile upward trend. The price of ethylene in Asia is stable. As of the 3rd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1196-1206 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1111-1121 / T. European ethylene market prices rose. As of the 3rd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1226-1236 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1200-1208 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States is stable. As of the 3rd, the price is 806-824 yuan / ton. In the recent external ethylene market, the overall demand is OK, the shock is higher, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the transaction is positive.

Internationally: on November 3, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $80.86/barrel, down US $3.05 or 3.6%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.99/barrel, down US $2.73 or 3.2%. At the macro level, the Fed tightened monetary policy and reduced the scale of bond purchase. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week. Oil prices fluctuate, giving limited support to ethylene costs.

Recently, the styrene market continues to decline slightly. Crude oil and coal prices fell at the same time, bulk commodities followed the decline, raw material pure benzene continued to be reduced by a narrow margin, the current price difference in the market period was slightly smaller, the import cost and listing price cost were supported, and the overall negotiation atmosphere was light. The cost support of styrene was temporarily stable, some shipments were closed actively in the market price decline, and the selling price was allowed. The increase of bad news suppressed some bargain hunting replenishment transactions. It is expected that the styrene market will still open low and fall slightly in the short term.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that: at present, in terms of crude oil: the recent crude oil market has fallen, but the overall price of crude oil is still high, so the data analysts of the business agency expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 184800 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 192600 yuan / ton

Analysis: the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise steadily. At present, the manufacturer’s inventory is relatively low, and the market demand is still rising. Due to relatively few transactions at high prices, the price of lithium carbonate has a positive trend, but the upward trend is slightly slow. With the coming of winter, affected by the cooling and production reduction in Qinghai, the output will be reduced, or the market will be dominated by destocking.

Forecast: the decrease of future market output will make the relationship between supply and demand still tense. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may still rise in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea mixed price fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 3108.33 yuan / ton on October 25 to 3050.00 yuan / ton on October 29, a decrease of 1.88%, an increase of 73.62% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, and the urea commodity index was 143.26 on October 29.

The cost support weakened, the downstream demand was general, and the urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 3250 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 3050 yuan / ton this weekend, down 130 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Guangzhou Bangyi urea is quoted at 3000 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall fell slightly this week: the price of LNG increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 6810.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7293.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 7.10%, an increase of 102.59% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell sharply. The quotation fell from 2185.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1505.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 31.12%, up 147.95% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 5110.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5183.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.44%, a year-on-year increase of 61.14% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 19966.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 20333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.84%.

From the perspective of demand: the peak of agricultural demand has passed, sporadic fertilizer supplement in some areas, rising industrial demand, increased demand for urea in downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them follow up with the appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, and the supply decreases. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is insufficient.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the first ten days of November, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, and the supply is tight, but the peak of agricultural demand has passed, the follow-up of industrial demand is mainly bargain hunting, and the future market price may fluctuate or fall slightly.

Recent domestic sulfuric acid price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fluctuated and fell this month. The quotation fell from 871.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 860.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 11.67 yuan / ton, down 1.34%, up 116.35% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the sulfuric acid market fell this month, and the sulfuric acid commodity index was 133.85 on October 31.

The upstream support is good, the downstream market is boosted, and the purchase intention is general

Domestic sulfuric acid Market in October

manufactor October 1st October 19th October 31st

Heze river source 870 yuan / ton 950 yuan / ton 950 yuan / ton

Zou Ping Tianlu 720 yuan / ton 720 yuan / ton 700 yuan / ton

Liaocheng Huatong 660 yuan / ton 850 yuan / ton 850 yuan / ton

Changzhou Qinghong 1050 yuan / ton 1000 yuan / ton 950 yuan / ton

Changzhou Changjiang River 950 yuan / ton 850 yuan / ton 750 yuan / ton

Xiangcheng San’an 980 yuan / ton 980 yuan / ton 960 yuan / ton

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have increased and decreased this month, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is good. The quotation of Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid at the end of the month is 950 yuan / ton, which is 80 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month; Zouping Tianlu quoted 700 yuan / ton at the end of this month, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month; Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid quoted 850 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 190 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Changzhou Qinghong quoted 950 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of Changzhou Changjiang River at the end of the month is 750 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The quotation of Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid at the end of the month was 960 yuan / ton, which decreased by 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently. The quotation has increased from 1970.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2123.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 153.33 yuan / ton, or 7.78%, a year-on-year increase of 125.89% compared with the same period last year. The cost support is good, which has a positive impact on sulfuric acid. The downstream formic acid market rose slightly. The quotation increased from 8016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.42%, a year-on-year increase of 265.91% compared with the same period last year. The downstream bromine market rose sharply. The quotation increased from 48250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 69000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 20750 yuan / ton, or 43.01%, and a year-on-year increase of 116.38% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose sharply, and the downstream has high enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month.

Market outlook rose slightly

The domestic sulfuric acid Market in the middle and early ten days of November may rise slightly. The upstream sulfur price has risen slightly recently, with good cost support, the downstream bromine market has risen sharply, the downstream formic acid market has been consolidated at a high level, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has been strengthened, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in Shandong market in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6500 yuan / ton on October 1 and 8133 yuan / ton on October 29. The price of chlorinated paraffin rose by 25.19% this month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, due to the continuous increase in the prices of liquid chlorine and liquid wax, chlorinated paraffin rose sharply with the price of raw materials. Due to high cost pressure and poor terminal demand, chlorinated paraffin is in a state of price without market. After the sharp rise, the operating rate of domestic chlorinated paraffin decreased and the plant production of enterprises decreased. At the end of the month, the price of raw materials fell, the cost support weakened, and the price of chlorinated paraffin decreased accordingly. As of October 29, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui was about 7500 yuan / ton, that in South China was about 7400-8600 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 7200-8500 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the overall price of liquid wax rose this month due to the tight supply of liquid wax and the rise of crude oil. At the end of the month, due to the high price of liquid wax and strong resistance in the downstream, the rise was blocked in the short term. In terms of liquid chlorine as raw material, the price of liquid chlorine generally rose this month, and the trading in North China was good, and the enterprise quotation was 3500-4200 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the liquid chlorine Market weakened and the price callback. The enterprise’s quotation was 2000 yuan / ton. The price of liquid chlorine may continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business society believe that the price of chlorinated paraffin continues to rise due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials this month. After the cost price fell, chlorinated paraffin enterprises mostly reduced the price. At present, under the condition of weakened raw material support and poor market demand, the price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to be stable and downward in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was in a continuous upward trend in October 2021, but the rise rate slowed down significantly. As of October 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 180600 yuan / ton, which increased by 7.63% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 167800 yuan / ton on October 1). On October 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 188400 yuan / ton, which increased by 7.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 175200 yuan / ton on October 1). Until the 28th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 182000-188000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 192000-205000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate gradually stabilized after the National Day holiday. Due to the impact of the “dual control of energy consumption” policy, the production of downstream enterprises decreased significantly, so the demand decreased relatively, making the price of lithium carbonate rise slowly. In addition, the obvious delay in the expansion of iron lithium market and the lower than expected increase in demand are also one of the factors contributing to the slow rise in the price of lithium carbonate. Subsequently, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, and the upward range slowed down significantly. All enterprises showed a slight increase in the price quotation of lithium carbonate, and the slow upward trend continued until the end of the month.

At present, all enterprises are in the state of tentative quotation, with strong market wait-and-see mood and relatively few transactions. Due to the impact of power rationing, some downstream cathode material plants reduced their purchase volume, the purchase demand weakened, and the market pricing was in a game state, which relaxed the tension of industrial carbon and electric carbon shipment.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the impact of power rationing and geological disasters in many places in China at the end of September had a slight impact on lithium salt production. The output of lithium carbonate extracted from spodumene also decreased, while the output of lithium mica and Salt Lake changed little. In October, the impact of film restrictions gradually eased, the output increased relatively, and the relationship between market supply and demand was alleviated. On October 26, Pilbara company, one of the largest spodumene concentrate producers in Australia, held the third spodumene concentrate auction. The final auction price was set at US $2350 / ton, up 5% from the last auction price. According to the ore price, the cost of lithium carbonate increased to 172500 yuan / ton.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide was stable at a high level in October, and the prices of upstream spodumene and lithium carbonate were high. There was some support on the cost side. On the supply side, most of the devices of mainstream production enterprises operated at a high level, the demand side was relatively stable, and the market operated smoothly. In the second half of the month, the cost side support was still strong, the tight supply situation was alleviated, and the focus of market negotiation was high and stable.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the market price was dominant in a narrow range in October, stable and strong, and the price continued to rise. Due to the strong upstream cost support, the rise did not decrease along the way. The downstream just needs procurement, and the transaction atmosphere is cautious. Due to the high focus of negotiation, the transaction atmosphere is strong.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, the supply of lithium carbonate market is still slightly tight, then the demand for lithium iron phosphate will begin to increase, and the domestic lithium salt production in Qinghai will decrease in winter. These factors will lead to a tight supply situation. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may continue to grow steadily.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, in October, hydrogen peroxide opened a sharp rise mode, and the price continued to hit a record high, with a maximum increase of more than 100%. After more than 20 days of sharp rise, there was a high platform diving, and the price fell rapidly, down more than 30%. At the beginning of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 880 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 1256 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 42.8%.

According to the annual comparison chart of hydrogen peroxide from 2018 to 2021, the highest price of hydrogen peroxide was 1816 yuan / ton on October 19, 2021, which has reached a four-year high. In the same period, the price of hydrogen peroxide was only 1338 yuan / ton in 2018, 1473 yuan / ton in 2019 and 1280 yuan / ton in 2020. In October this year, the hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply, mainly due to the impact of dual control policy, tight supply and increased terminal rigid demand. The market ushered in a crazy rise, with an increase of more than 100% for more than half a month.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide of business society from August 2, 2021 to October 18, 2021, it can be seen that the overall performance of the market in August and September is low. In mid September, the hydrogen peroxide Market improved, with a maximum weekly increase of 3.15%. After October 11, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a sharp rise, with a continuous rise. In the week of October 11, hydrogen peroxide rose by 29.57%. Hydrogen peroxide rose 3.5% in the week of October 18. At the end of October, after the hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply, the sharp decline mode was started.

Long short game hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply and then fell sharply

After the national day, the steam cost of hydrogen peroxide unit increased due to the rise of coal price. In addition to the terminal caprolactam, the rigid demand support of the paper printing industry, the increase in procurement, and the tight supply of some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers, supported by multiple favorable factors, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the rise of hydrogen peroxide is amazing.

The increase in the week of October 7 was average. In the week of October 15, hydrogen peroxide kept rising, and the ex factory price was raised for many times, with a daily increase of more than 100 yuan / ton, from 1003 yuan / ton on October 11 to 1300 yuan / ton on October 15, an increase of more than 30%. On October 18, the average price of hydrogen peroxide broke through 1700 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of more than 30%.

On October 18, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi, Shandong was 1740 yuan / ton, an increase of 420 yuan / ton in a single day; Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 1600 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 320 yuan / ton; Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1800 yuan / ton, an increase of 500 yuan / ton per day.

After several rounds of sharp rise in hydrogen peroxide Market, near the last week of the end of the month, due to the influence of power restriction policy, the demand of the terminal turned weak. The continuously rising hydrogen peroxide market was returned to its original shape, and the price plunged sharply. On October 25, the one-day decline was close to 20%. As of October 28, hydrogen peroxide fell by more than 30%.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business society, believes that: under the pressure of terminal demand, the hydrogen peroxide market has returned to the market before the rise, and the falling space in the future is limited.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners rose slightly this week. On October 24, the average price of Shandong market was 3268.00 yuan / ton, up 2.09% from 3201.00 yuan / ton on October 18.

On October 24, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 254.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.06% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 280.00% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The refinery shipped well this week, the refinery actively shipped to inventory, the refinery inventory was low, and the local refined petroleum coke price rose slightly.

Upstream: since October, international crude oil prices have risen, the economies of major economies around the world have continued to recover, and fuel demand has rebounded, but U.S. inventories have continued to decline, and oil and gas recovery in the Gulf of Mexico has been slow. In addition to the supply restriction policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +), the supply-demand gap is expected to give strong support to oil prices, and the impact of natural gas shortage in Europe, oil prices will still rise due to demand in the medium and short term.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; Metal silicon market has declined; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell. As of October 24, the price was 21913.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 42nd week of 2021 (10.18-10.22), there are 11 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 4 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were MTBE (10.50%), liquefied gas (9.48%) and naphtha (8.59%). There are 4 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 1 kind of commodity with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were methanol (- 10.53%), liquefied natural gas (- 1.47%) and power coal (- 0.42%). The average rise and fall this week was 2.41%.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that the price of petroleum coke in refineries has fallen recently. Refineries actively ship to inventory, with good trading and low inventory. The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell, and the price of calcined coke remained basically stable. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may decline slightly in the near future.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell. On the 1st, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1676.67 yuan / ton, on the 25th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1850.00 yuan / ton, up 10.34%, and the highest point was on the 13th, the average price was 2267.67 yuan / ton. The current price rose 16.11% month on month, and the current price rose 73.44% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

In October, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose first and then fell. As can be seen from the above figure, formaldehyde rose for more than two consecutive months and fell for two weeks, which can be described as ups and downs. As of October 25, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1700-1800 yuan / ton. Linyi jinyimeng formaldehyde production line with an annual production capacity of 100000 tons has resumed normal production. Recently, formaldehyde enterprises started well, with sufficient inventory, general market trading atmosphere, and the formaldehyde market fell.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of October 25:

Region, price

East China 1930-1940 yuan / ton

North China 1880 yuan / ton

Central China 1950 yuan / ton

Northwest China 2070 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: Recently, the domestic methanol spot market has plummeted and is still at a high level. After the sharp reduction of the factories in the main production area, the transaction was general, the local second adjustment soon appeared, and the terminal receiving price in northern Shandong was also reduced as scheduled. With the sharp decline of futures, mainland regions also began to follow the downward trend. This is mainly because the northwest takes out methanol, but the sales are general, the enterprise inventory increases, the Underground Tour in Shandong and so on, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high. Methanol market fell sharply, unable to support the formaldehyde market, and formaldehyde fell.

At present, the operation of the downstream plate factory is general, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the formaldehyde market. The bargaining mood is strong. The formaldehyde manufacturer maintains the shipment at a low price, the market inventory digestion is poor, and the formaldehyde market falls.

Recently, with the sharp decline of futures, the spot market of domestic methanol has plummeted, which can not form a cost support for formaldehyde. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of business society expect that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall by shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine market price remained stable this week, and the average price of industrial glycine remained stable at 27333 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of business society, the glycine market is currently closed, and the supply of goods in the site is tight. According to the news, the price of industrial glycine exceeded 35000 yuan / ton. Glycine enterprises in Hebei began to stop reporting this week and mainly completed the orders of old customers. It is difficult to find one product in the market and the price is chaotic. A single negotiation is implemented. Glycine in Shandong continued to stop reporting, the start of enterprises was unstable, and the shortage of supply was exacerbated.

Downstream products: the price of glyphosate technical drug is close to 80000 yuan / ton. Most technical drug enterprises do not accept new orders or quote. The demand continues to improve and the supply of goods continues to be tight. The prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus, acetic acid and glycine have soared, and glyphosate still has room to rise in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the supply of glyphosate in the lower reaches remained in short supply in the fourth quarter. With the rise of raw materials and demand support, the rise of glycine price has become inevitable. How much can it be? Pay close attention to the driving situation of enterprises and the changes of downstream demand.