Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea mixed price fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 3108.33 yuan / ton on October 25 to 3050.00 yuan / ton on October 29, a decrease of 1.88%, an increase of 73.62% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, and the urea commodity index was 143.26 on October 29.

The cost support weakened, the downstream demand was general, and the urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 3250 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 3050 yuan / ton this weekend, down 130 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Guangzhou Bangyi urea is quoted at 3000 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall fell slightly this week: the price of LNG increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 6810.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7293.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 7.10%, an increase of 102.59% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell sharply. The quotation fell from 2185.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1505.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 31.12%, up 147.95% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 5110.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5183.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.44%, a year-on-year increase of 61.14% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 19966.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 20333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.84%.

From the perspective of demand: the peak of agricultural demand has passed, sporadic fertilizer supplement in some areas, rising industrial demand, increased demand for urea in downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them follow up with the appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, and the supply decreases. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is insufficient.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the first ten days of November, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, and the supply is tight, but the peak of agricultural demand has passed, the follow-up of industrial demand is mainly bargain hunting, and the future market price may fluctuate or fall slightly.