In the last 10 days, the favorable factors of domestic propane market have been obviously supported, and the price has been rising continuously, with the main upward trend. According to the data of business agency, the average price of propane Market in Shandong Province was 4248.25 yuan / ton on June 8, and 4370.75 yuan / ton on June 17, with a period of 2.88% increase, up 50.46% compared with the same period last year.

As of June 17, the main prices of propane in domestic sub region are as follows:

region Specifications June 17th

East China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4000-4350 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4200-4270 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4300-4450 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4340-4440 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (v/v) not less than 95 4250-4600 yuan / ton

The current propane price is up 50.46% compared with the same period last year, and the price is still on the high side. Recently, propane market has many favorable factors, and the price has been up. First, it is the international crude oil market. The recent international crude oil trend has risen, and the news side is favorable for the market mentality. Secondly, the import gas aspect, the high import cost brings obvious support to the market. In addition, after the Dragon Boat Festival, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. The downstream market enthusiasm is mild, the favorable factors are superimposed, the mentality of the manufacturer is strong and the market behavior is the main. At present, the domestic propane market is in the upward trend in the north and south. After the saving, the northern market is mostly stable and pushed up. Because of the low price in the early stage, the price of the southern market is wide pushed up after the inventory is released after the saving, which is more obvious than that in the northern market. However, the market is still in the market, and the terminal demand is weak due to seasonal factors, which will bring some constraints to propane upstream.

International crude oil market, June 16, international oil prices closed up slightly, the settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $72.15/barrel, or 0.03 USD. Brent crude oil futures market main contract settlement price at $74.39/barrel, up $0.40 or 0.50%. The US gasoline inventory rose last week, limiting the power of oil prices, according to inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday.

Saudi Aramco announced in June that the butane was up regulated. Propane was 530 US dollars / ton, up 35 dollars / ton compared with last month; Butane was $525 / T, up $50 / T from last month.

At present, the international crude oil rise has brought a great support to the market, and the import cost increases, the propane Market follows the main behavior. However, in the traditional off-season of sales, the overall terminal demand is still weak. In the near future, the market supply will benefit the market for a short time due to the decrease of port to ship. It is expected that the propane market will be adjusted narrowly or there may be a weak possibility.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average market price of steam coal was about 931.25 yuan / ton on June 14, and 973.75 yuan / ton on June 18, with an increase of 4.56% and 70.68% over the same period last year. On June 17, the steam coal commodity index was 116.11, up 2.25 points from yesterday, down 7.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 159.75% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

In terms of origin: Sales of coal mines in origin still maintain a good situation in the early stage, there are still many coal pulling vehicles in coal mines, the overall supply of coal in Ordos is still limited due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, and the coal production in Shanxi is even more tight due to the impact of mining disaster.

Downstream power plants: Recently, due to the impact of summer peak, the daily consumption of power plants is high, and the coal inventory of power plants remains at a low level, so there is a strong desire to replenish. Data show that on June 16, the daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 2.06 million tons, at a high level, and the inventory was 25.017 million tons, at a low level.

On June 16, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that in May, raw coal production was 326.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, a decrease of 1.8% last month, an increase of 0.6% over the same period in 2019, an average increase of 0.3% in two years, and an average daily output of 10.53 million tons; The imported coal was 21.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. From January to may, 162.1 million tons of raw coal were produced, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, and an average growth of 4.8% in two years; The import of coal was 111.17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.2%.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the overall supply of thermal coal is still difficult to increase. In terms of downstream power plants, with the increase of temperature, power plants still have the demand for replenishment. However, recently, affected by the policy, the increase of steam coal is relatively low. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price is relatively strong in the later period, and the specific situation is the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel price of the business agency, on June 16, nickel price fell sharply, spot price was 130416.67 yuan / ton, down 3.25% compared with the previous day, up 1.78% from the beginning of the year, up 26.37% year on year.

The index hit a month high with the dollar strong as the PPI data released late on the 15th was higher than expected, and the nickel was down 4.82 percent overnight, leading other varieties. The market has strengthened regulation over concerns about rising commodities, and the market is also concerned about China’s demand performance, and the underlying metals have been hit down. In addition, the Philippine nickel mine export increased, Indonesia ferronickel was put into production steadily, the supply and demand of ferronickel gradually relaxed, and the nickel supply was loose. With the expansion of capacity and technical improvement, the supply surplus of nickel market is expected to be strong.

Forecast: the decline of nickel price is mainly affected by macro factors. The stainless steel and new energy automobile industry have strong demand for nickel, and the basic level is still available. The falling space is limited, but it is necessary to avoid the drag of domestic consumption in off-season.

Aluminum fluoride price falls again

In June, the price of aluminum fluoride fell again, and the market of aluminum fluoride was weak. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on June 15 was 8533.33 yuan / ton, down 166.67 yuan / ton or 1.92% from 8700.00 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month.

Price fluctuation adjustment of electrolytic aluminum

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and fell from a high level, the consumption of aluminum market was not ideal, the purchase intention of the downstream was not high, the market supply exceeded the demand, the demand of aluminum fluoride was poor, and the rise support was insufficient.

Aluminum fluoride industry chain down

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the upstream of the aluminum fluoride industry chain has fallen sharply, the cost of aluminum fluoride has fallen, the rising power of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and there is a large space for decline. Since June, the price of hydrofluoric acid has stabilized, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and the future market is expected to be stable.

Market summary and forecast

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts of business news agency believe that: raw material prices are falling, aluminum fluoride costs are falling, aluminum fluoride has a large space to fall, aluminum ingot Market is cold, downstream demand for aluminum fluoride is limited, and aluminum fluoride rise is not supported enough. Overall, the upstream and downstream market weak adjustment, aluminum fluoride market is still weak.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated and fell this week. As of the end of the week, the spot copper price was 70781.67 yuan / ton, down 1.14% from 71595 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 22.13% from the beginning of the year, and up 49.294% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper in March was running in a narrow range, closing at US $9984, up 0.24% for the week; This week, the Shanghai copper index fluctuated at a low level, closing at 71930 yuan, up 1.24%. The international copper index closed at 63720 yuan, up 0.76%.

Copper prices fell in a weak position this week. According to news, it has been confirmed that the boots of the State Reserve Bureau have been put into operation. The varieties involved in this throwing are copper, aluminum and zinc, and the objects are downstream terminal enterprises. Moreover, the receiving quantity of each variety has low requirements. The launching time is at the end of each natural month and will last until the end of 2021. The rumors of throwing reserves brought certain pressure to the whole nonferrous plate, and the copper price also fell. However, the disturbance factors of copper still exist, and the supply has a certain support. However, in terms of demand, the heat of the air conditioning industry may be cooling down, and the automotive industry continues to be affected by the shortage of chips. Therefore, the overall performance of the consumer side is not strong. It is expected that the copper price will continue to fluctuate at a high level.

1、 Price trend

Toluene prices rose this week, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On May 30, the price of toluene was 5800 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (June 6) was 5841 yuan / ton, up 41 yuan / ton, or 0.7% compared with last week; It was up 59.59% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The peripheral news was positive, boosting toluene prices higher, but downstream demand followed up weak, limiting gains. In terms of external market, as of June 4, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was 761 USD / T, up 21 USD / T, or 2.84% in the week, compared with May 28 on the same month; The price of toluene imported from East China was US $773 / T, up $11 / T, or 1.44% in the week, on May 28.

On the crude oil side, the United States entered the peak driving travel season, and the demand for gasoline has obviously increased. And opec+ conference decided to maintain the gradual increase plan unchanged. The outlook for the crude oil market is good, with oil prices rocketing this week. Brent rose $1.175/barrel this week, or 1.69 percent, on May 28; WTI rose $3.29/barrel, or 4.98 percent.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell in shock, with domestic products of 13250 yuan / ton, down 6.69% compared with last week, up 16.91% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX price rose this week, with the price of 6500 yuan / ton, up 1.56% compared with last week, and 58.54% year on year. Asia closed at $830-832 / T FOB Korea and $848-850 / T CFR China as of June 4.

3、 Post market forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, supporting the price of toluene; The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. In general, the price of toluene in the short term is mainly consolidation. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of blending price of crude oil and gasoline, the maintenance of toluene plant, the arrival volume of toluene in the later period and the influence of downstream demand on the price of toluene.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 7, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 510 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on June 1, and increased by 30 yuan / ton, or 6.25%, compared with that on May 1 (480 yuan / ton).

In June, China’s phosphorus ore market as a whole was in a high and stable consolidation operation, and the turnover in some regions continued to move up, while the turnover at the low end of the market continued to decrease. As of June 7, the price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is around 430-460 yuan / ton, and the price of high-end phosphate ore is 480 yuan / ton. In Guangxi, the phosphorus ore market is stable for the time being. The quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore factory is 380-400 yuan / ton, and the quotation of high-end phosphate ore is 420 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. In Hubei Province, the quoted price of 30% grade phosphorus ore for mainstream ship plate is about 500-530 yuan / ton. In Sichuan Province, the delivery price of 30% phosphate concentrate is 360-390 yuan / ton. In Yunnan Province, the mainstream price of 28% grade phosphate ore is about 280-300 yuan / ton.

According to the business news agency, the following is the price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 380-420 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 420-480 yuan / ton Vehicle price

Phosphate rock Hubei 30% 500-530 yuan / ton Mainstream board price

Phosphate rock Sichuan 30% phosphate concentrate 360-390 yuan / ton County free price

Phosphate rock Yunnan 28% 280-300 yuan / ton Mainstream vehicle price

Forecast of future trend of phosphate rock

In the early stage, the price of yellow phosphorus products in the downstream of phosphate rock rose sharply. Under the high price, the cost pressure of terminal downstream increased, the operating rate decreased, the demand also decreased, and the wait-and-see mood of downstream procurement increased. In June, I heard that the price of yellow phosphorus Market was weakening, and the transaction volume also decreased relatively. According to the phosphorus ore analysts of business news agency, the reduction of short-term demand for yellow phosphorus will be an important factor affecting the market of phosphate rock. Therefore, in June, the domestic phosphorus ore market will decline slightly under the influence of the consolidation industry chain.

Commodity name: urea

Latest price (June 7): 2730.00 yuan / ton

On June 7, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose, 225 yuan / ton higher than that of June 4, up 8.98%, which was a big increase. The upstream natural gas and coal prices are recently high consolidation, with better cost support. From the aspect of demand: the agricultural demand of all regions is followed up in succession; Downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plant started higher, the new orders of the enterprise followed up well, melamine was produced again and demand increased. From the aspect of supply: the unit maintenance of urea enterprises is still in the near future, with an average operating rate of about 75%, a daily production of 15000 tons, the supply end tightening, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory also maintain a lower position. Overall, the cost of urea is well supported this week, downstream demand increases, urea supply is tight and supply is short of demand.

The market is expected to see a small increase in the factory price of urea in Shandong Province: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2750 yuan / ton.

The NBR market rebounded slightly this week (5.31-6.4). According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of NBR was 21066 yuan / ton as of June 4, up 1.28% compared with the price of 20800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, the domestic NBR rebounded slightly, and the factory price of Lanhua nitrile increased by 300 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of June 4, the factory report of n41e of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was 18200 yuan / ton; 3305e report: RMB 19300 / ton; 3308e reported 20200 yuan / ton. After the fall since mid March, the price of NBR has gradually returned to rationality. In addition, the environmental protection supervision has ended, the downstream load has slightly increased, the demand has some support in the face of NBR, the factory price of the manufacturer has been tentatively increased, and the price of traders without inventory pressure has been slightly increased. According to the business society, the mainstream market of Lanhua nitrile n41 is reported at around 19400 yuan / ton; Russia’s nitrile 3365 reported 18700 yuan / ton.

The price of butadiene raw materials continued to rise, and more support was provided. According to the business agency, the price of butadiene as of June 4 was 7608 yuan / ton, up 3.12% from 7378 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Post market forecast: the NBR analysts of business agency believe that the relative pressure on supply side is not large, and the price in the early stage has fallen sharply, and the NBR market is expected to be stable next week.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde this week is 5833 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable.

2、 Market analysis

On May 25, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 5700 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which was the same as last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 5600 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 6200 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Polyoxymethylene can be sold in the market.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic methanol manufacturers in Shandong was 2670 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 2685 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 0.56%.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene goods go smoothly, polyoxymethylene business analysts expect that polyoxymethylene or will run smoothly.