On May 13, international oil prices fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was $63.82/barrel, down $2.26 or 3.4%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $67.05/barrel, down US $2.27 or 3.3%. On Thursday, the oil price plummeted by more than 3%. This was mainly due to the severe epidemic situation in India, which rekindled market worries, and the resumption of operation of the U.S. fuel pipeline, which was unable to operate due to the previous cyber attack, adding to the macro aspect, and the increase of U.S. inflation expectations, The market’s concern about the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates also pushed the pause button for the rise of oil prices.

At the macro level, with the release of the US inflation data, the global market’s inflation concerns have intensified, and the resulting concerns about the Fed’s interest rate increase have spread to the field of risk assets, and the decline of oil prices has also been affected to some extent. Specifically, CPI in the United States rose 4.2% year on year in April, setting a new high since September 2008, with the expectation of 3.6% and the previous value of 2.6%; Among them, core CPI rose 3% year on year, expected to be 2.3% and the previous value was 1.6%. After the data was released, the probability of the US money market believing that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2022 rose from 88% to 100%. On Thursday, the US will also release April PPI data, which is expected to rise 5.9% year on year.

Previously, the largest fuel pipeline system in the United States was closed after being attacked by hackers. Due to the importance of this fuel pipeline, nearly half of the fuel supply on the east coast of the United States was affected, resulting in a shortage of fuel and rising prices in the East Coast states. It resumed on Thursday after six days of closure, greatly easing the market’s previous tight supply sentiment and lowering oil prices. It is reported that at the initial stage of the system restart, the pipeline fuel supply in some areas may be unstable, and it will still take several days to fully recover to the normal level.

With the resumption of fuel pipeline operation in the United States, the bad supply has further strengthened the concern of demand, and the aggravation of the epidemic in India has made the market return to the expected variables of demand recovery.

In the past 24 hours, there have been 362727 new confirmed cases and 4120 new deaths in India, with a total of more than 23.7 million confirmed cases and 258317 deaths, according to statistics released by the Ministry of health on the 13th. On the surface of the data, the epidemic situation is still aggravating. The mutated virus complicates the epidemic situation in India and even Southeast Asia. India is the third largest oil importer in the world, which is bound to further damage oil demand.

According to the business news agency, the sharp drop in oil prices on Thursday is a release of accumulated risks in the early stage. In terms of fundamentals, oil prices still have strong support. From the data of US commercial crude oil inventory last week, crude oil inventory continued to decrease, US exports also declined, China’s data also showed a bright performance, and oil imports also showed a growth momentum, It shows that the recovery process of the world’s major economies is accelerating. It is expected that the short-term oil price will intensify the shock, and the medium and long-term oil price will still have upward momentum.

According to the price monitoring data of business news agency, as of May 14, the average reference average price of domestic n-propanol containing packaging in mainstream areas was around 8833 yuan / ton, which was 333 yuan / ton lower than that on May 1, a decrease of 3.57%.

In the first ten days of May, the domestic n-propanol market was slightly under pressure

After the May holiday, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole maintained a weak and stable operation in the first week. Affected by the inventory pressure, the dealers in some regions slightly reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by 100-200 yuan / ton. The price adjustment had little impact on the trading atmosphere, and the overall operation remained stable until the middle of the month.

Until the 13th, affected by the pressure of demand, the spot suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong Province reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by 300-600 yuan / ton. In Shandong Province, the ex factory price of n-propanol loose water is about 7500-8300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of n-propanol including package is about 8400-9500 yuan / ton. In Nanjing, the market of n-propanol is relatively stable. The factory price of n-propanol and n-propanol is about 7500-8500 yuan / ton. In Nanjing Rongxin chemical, the 30000 ton / year n-propanol plant is in normal operation, and the factory price of n-propanol is about 8500 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the recent external ethylene market as a whole showed a rising trend. On May 12, the price of ethylene in Asia was 1148-1154 USD / T in Northeast Asia and 1093-1099 USD / T in Southeast Asia. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 853-865 US dollars / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has been stable and the demand is poor. In the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1258-1271 / T, CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1277-1288 / T. generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene external market is acceptable in the near future, and the market continues to rise.

The demand is relatively stable, and the overall short-term market fluctuates little

At present, the downstream consumer market of n-propanol is mainly used for the production of n-Propyl Acetate, and the demand in this field accounts for about 65%. Business community propanol analysts believe that propanol contract users are mainly manufacturers, the demand is relatively stable, so the overall market volatility is small. However, I heard recently that the n-propanol production plant of Nanjing n-propanol production plant has a parking plan, and the inventory in the plant is reduced. In the short term, the domestic n-propanol market price may slightly callback. More attention should be paid to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods.

The demand is still weak, BDO market “fell into the altar”, and the recent domestic BDO market continues to decline. According to the sample data monitored by the business society, as of May 12, the average price of BDO producers in China was 24900 yuan / ton, with the price falling 16.16% on a year-on-year basis, up 186.21% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream spot water negotiations in East China are 22800-23200 yuan / ton, while low and high-end water prices are down by 200-300 yuan / ton; The barrel negotiation is 25000-25500 yuan / ton (accepted to be delivered). The main stream of spot bulk water in South China was 22800-23200 yuan / ton, and the decrease was 200-300 yuan / ton; The barreled negotiation is 25000-25500 yuan / ton (accepted to be delivered), which is flat.

The focus of BDO market in China continues to explore, spot talks are light. There is no bid for extended oil, and there is little information about the offer. Although many factories at the supply end stop for maintenance or change catalyst, the current social inventory is relatively high. During the period of sharp rise in the early stage, traders hoard more goods, and the favorable support was not obvious. The middle and lower reaches avoid falling, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high; At present, the market of domestic trade traders low price quotation confusion, manufacturers shipping mentality, many narrow margin operation.

In terms of the device, Dongyuan Park and repair from May 8 to 20; Tianye parking and maintenance on May 10; Henan Kaixiang plans to overhaul for one month on May 11; The maintenance plan is kept at the end of the month of Shaanxi chemical industry.

At present, supply and demand end is not supported by good, and the industry is mostly bearish, and small orders just need to be traded. The game between the supply and demand sides continued, and the focus of negotiation continued to decline. Business agency BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market is in a downturn in the short term.

Aluminum price rose 9.11% in April

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market in March was 18850 yuan / ton, reaching a new high in nearly a decade.

Aluminum prices rose 9.11% in April, mainly in the second half of April. After the middle of April, the price of aluminum went up again, breaking the 18000 mark and reaching 19000 yuan / ton.

List of upstream and downstream output data of aluminum ingot in March

Raw material: alumina

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China’s total alumina output in March was 6.5366 million tons, an increase of 11.3% over the same period last year, and the output in the first quarter was 19.23 million tons, an increase of 13.7% over the same period last year.

Downstream: Aluminum

In March, the total output of aluminum products in China was 5.367 million tons, an increase of 17.6% over the same period last year. In the first quarter, the output was 13.89 million tons, an increase of 31.1% over the same period last year.

Fundamentals of aluminum ingot

The rise of the market in April is mainly based on two factors:

First, the supply side capacity “ceiling” is expected to be strengthened. Due to the impact of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the new capacity of aluminum industry has been restricted in recent years. The market expects that the policy requirements or strict control of electrolytic aluminum capacity of 45 million tons “ceiling” will be implemented. Recently, Guizhou, Shandong and other places have banned illegal new capacity projects in electrolytic aluminum industry, and the new capacity is limited.

Second, the demand side of aluminum consumer side support is strong, aluminum social inventory is relatively low year on year.

To sum up, under the high price and profit, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum plants are basically in the state of full production, and the operating rate growth space is limited. Under the domestic carbon neutral target, with the implementation of China’s aluminum industry to accelerate the carbon peak target and the promotion of the local government’s “double control” policy of energy consumption, as a high-energy consumption industry, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity and output will be limited. Recently, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory turned into a downward trend, and the traditional consumption peak season gradually appeared, which strongly supported the aluminum price.

Capital factors

The US FOMC announced the latest interest rate resolution, keeping the benchmark interest rate in the range of 0% – 0.25%, the excess reserve ratio in the range of 0.1%, the discount rate in the range of 0.25%, and the monthly bond purchase scale in the range of 120 billion US dollars. The world’s major economies are expected to maintain a recovery momentum. In the early stage, the central bank eased its operation. In addition, the market situation is guided by the macro sentiment of the policy side and strengthened by multiple emotions.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic EVA market was 19900.00 yuan / ton on April 27 and 19900.00 yuan / ton on April 28, which was the same as yesterday’s price and increased by 2.58% compared with March 30. Although the quotation of EVA manufacturers is not moving for the time being, the focus of market price quotation has risen, and the overall market is good.

As of April 28, EVA ex factory quotation is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 20000 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 21500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2045 21500 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 19900 yuan / ton

On the 28th, the domestic EVA factory quotation continued to move horizontally, and the manufacturer’s price did not change much. But the market price offer center rises, the transaction atmosphere is mild. The May Day holiday is coming. As the end of the month approaches, the supply of petrochemical products is relatively small, and the overall supply of the market is weak, so the attitude of the industry is good. In addition, the market demand for photovoltaic materials has been driven, and the overall market situation has improved.

International crude oil market: on April 28, the international oil price rose, and the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $63.86/barrel, up US $0.92 or 1.5%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 66.78 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.91 U.S. dollars or 1.4%, on Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that the U.S. distillate stocks fell sharply last week, refinery operating rate rose to the highest level in more than a year, boosting the market’s hope for the recovery of fuel demand in the world’s major economies.

Acetic acid Market: on April 26, the average ex factory price of acetic acid in East China was 7595.00 yuan / ton, up 22.30% in April. In April, the price of acetic acid rose widely since the Qingming Festival. During the month, some acetic acid plants were shut down for maintenance, and the enterprises were short of inventory. The downstream demand remained strong, the spot supply on the floor continued to be tight, and the quotation of acetic acid went up at a high level. Driven by the favorable raw materials, the downstream products of acetic acid rose to varying degrees.

In general, the overall supply of goods in the current market is weak, which brings some support to the market. The trend of raw materials and products is good, and the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong. It is expected that the price of domestic EVA market may rise slightly in the short term, but the downstream factories are in conflict with the sentiment, so we still need to pay attention to the situation of downstream entering the market after the festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of bromine is running at a high level. At present, the average market price in Shandong is 37611.11 yuan / ton, up 24.91% over the same period last year. On April 26, the bromine commodity index was 131.97, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 123.98% from the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

At present, the mainstream price of domestic bromine enterprises is about 37000-38500 yuan / ton, and the price of bromine is relatively strong. The bromine market in Shandong Province is in short supply. The bromine enterprises in Dongying region may be faced with shutdown. The downstream flame retardants and intermediates are well started and the goods are prepared actively. Most bromine manufacturers have the intention to support the price, and the low price is hard to find.

Raw materials: the domestic sulfur market is on the rise, and most of the on-site trading is based on demand procurement. Domestic refineries in various regions maintain low inventory and good delivery performance. Downstream factories purchase on demand in the market. The market lacks substantive information guidance, and the operators are mainly on the lookout. During the week, refineries in various regions of China adjusted their prices according to their own shipment situation. In East China, the price of liquid sulfur was increased by 20 yuan / ton, and that of solid sulfur was increased by 20-50 yuan / ton; Solid and liquid sulfur in North China and Shandong increased by 40-50 yuan / ton at the same time, and sulfur market generally went up. In terms of market supply, the inventory of domestic refineries remains low, and the supply and demand performance is relatively stable. At present, the market lacks substantive information guidance, and the sulfur market is reorganized and operated in the short term, focusing on the downstream follow-up situation.

Business analysts believe that the bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry is now developing well, with more active goods preparation. The industry is also bullish on the future market, with the focus of transaction moving upward. It is expected that the bromine price will be high and firm in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

From the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride this week is 2500.00 yuan / ton. Overall, the market of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week, and the commodity index of potassium chloride on April 23 is 79.37.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride this week is temporarily stable: the factory offer of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is 2350 yuan / ton at the weekend, which is stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badu potassium chloride sales quotation at the weekend is 2650 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with the beginning of the week. The actual transaction of potassium chloride market this week is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that supply is greater than demand, the trading atmosphere is cold and clear, downstream procurement is just needed as the main part, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late April, the overall trend of KCl market or small amplitude of shocks was the main. The market of potassium chloride is facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock, weak demand and the downward trend of international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the market is that supply is greater than demand. The analysts of KCl in business agency think that the short-term potassium chloride market is mainly in the market of potassium chloride or high consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

April 22 is world earth day, and the “leaders’ climate summit” hosted by the United States is also on the stage here. “Low carbon” has become the key word in dealing with climate change. Russian President Vladimir Putin put forward ambitious emission reduction targets, and Chinese leaders also reiterated the “double carbon” target. The chairman of the board of directors of the Russian natural gas group (hereinafter referred to as “Gazprom”) said that Russia China natural gas cooperation has broad prospects.

President of “Gazprom”: China will become the most promising natural gas market

Victor Zubkov, chairman of the board of directors of Gazprom, is very concerned about China’s natural gas market. Recently, in an interview with TASS, he said, “China has become the world’s largest natural gas importer and the third largest energy consumer. China’s natural gas consumption is growing at a double-digit rate and may double in the next 15 years. China will become the most promising natural gas market. ”

China’s “people’s Daily” reported that in 2020, China’s natural gas imports will achieve steady growth, and the sources of natural gas imports will be diversified. China’s customs data show that in 2020, China’s natural gas imports will be 101.661 million tons, up 5.3% year on year; The import value was 231.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%.

China’s “two carbon” target promotes the growth of natural gas consumption

China’s strong natural gas demand is closely related to the national ecological policy. At the general debate of the 75th UN General Assembly in September 2020, China proposed for the first time that carbon dioxide emissions should strive to reach the peak by 2030 and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. On April 22, when attending the leaders’ climate summit, Chinese leaders once again reiterated the goal of “two carbon”, and said that China adheres to the development path of ecological priority, green and low carbon.

China Petroleum Business Daily reported that carbon emissions are closely related to energy consumption, and more than 85% of carbon emissions come from energy activities. Therefore, the green and low-carbon transformation of energy structure is the key measure to achieve the goal of “double carbon”. China’s 14th five year plan clearly proposes to promote the energy revolution, build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, and further promote the low-carbon transformation in industries, construction, transportation and other fields.

As a clean fossil energy, natural gas emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are much smaller than coal and oil. There is no doubt that the positive effect of natural gas replacing coal on carbon emission reduction. In the future, China’s natural gas consumption will continue to grow, and natural gas will occupy a place in the future emerging energy system.

China Russia natural gas pipeline project “Siberian power-2″ is being planned

China’s natural gas imports come from a variety of sources. In terms of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas, Russia ranks in the top five. The natural gas project currently under cooperation between the two countries is the East China Russia natural gas pipeline (Russia called “Siberian power”), which is divided into north section, middle section and south section.

According to China National Petroleum and natural gas pipeline network group, the north section of the pipeline was officially ventilated on December 2, 2019 in the presence of leaders of the two countries, with a supply life of 30 years. The middle section will be completed by the end of 2020 to transport natural gas to Beijing and Beijing Tianjin Hebei region. After the completion of the whole line, 38 billion cubic meters of high-quality natural gas can be supplied every year.

After the project was put into operation, China and Russia announced the establishment of a working group to jointly explore another natural gas pipeline scheme, which will transport Russian gas to China through Mongolia《 Previously, the website of Russian daily reported that “Gazprom” has begun to design the “Siberian power-2″ natural gas pipeline, with an annual transportation capacity of 50 billion cubic meters.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the propane market has been going down since April 14, and the current price has fallen back to the level at the beginning of the month. The propane market has “gone up lonely” in April. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of propane market was 4843.25 yuan / ton on April 13 and 4508.25 yuan / ton on April 22, with a decrease of 6.92% during the period and 0.17% compared with April 1.

As of April 22, domestic mainstream propane prices by region are as follows:

region Specifications April 22nd

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4230-4400 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4500-4650 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4300-4600 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4350-4400 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4650-4706 yuan / ton

Shandong propane market began to fall all the way in the second half of the month, forming a clear contrast with the rising trend in the first half of the month. This time, the South and North markets were down simultaneously, but the decline in the north market was more obvious than that in the south market. The main reasons for the decline are as follows: firstly, affected by the low price of ports in East China market, refineries were forced to lower their prices. Secondly, in terms of crude oil, international crude oil began to fluctuate and fall on the 18th, giving weak support to the market. Finally, on the demand side, as the overall demand of the domestic market is at a weak level, when the supply side is sufficient, the downstream mostly maintains periodic replenishment, the refinery’s shipment situation is general, and the inventory continues to accumulate, resulting in a weak price.

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco announced in April that there was a downward trend in propane butane. Propane is 560 US dollars / ton, down 65 US dollars / ton compared with last month; Butane is 530 US dollars / ton, down 65 US dollars / ton compared with last month.

International crude oil market: on April 21, international oil prices continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $61.35/barrel, down by US $1.32 or 2.1%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at US $65.32/barrel, down US $1.25 or 1.9%. The market was worried that the surge of new crown infection in India would hurt energy demand, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on Wednesday showed that US crude oil stocks rose unexpectedly last week.

At present, the overall domestic propane markets in the north and South are in a weak position. Although individual refineries in Shandong have slightly increased their prices, the overall shipping atmosphere is still weak. Under the negative factors of the decline of international crude oil, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is poor. But there are also positive factors in the market. Near the May Day holiday, there is a demand for replenishment in the downstream market before the festival, and the market transaction atmosphere is expected to improve. It is expected that the propane market will stop falling and stabilize in the short term, but there is still a possibility of falling in the long term.

According to RT on April 20, the latest research of the Joint Petroleum statistics Initiative (Jodi) shows that in February this year, Russia still ranked second in global oil production, with a daily output of 9.398 million barrels / day.

Data show that the United States is the world’s largest oil producer, and Saudi Arabia ranks third. Russia has maintained its position as the world’s second largest oil producer for the 10th consecutive month, only falling to the third place in April 2020. Before that, Russia had been second for more than a year.

According to Jodi, compared with January, Russia’s oil production fell by 0.7% in February, while the United States cut production by 6.5% to 10.364 million B / D and Saudi Arabia by 10.5% to 8.147 million B / d.

Statistics also show that Russia’s export volume in January was 3.702 million B / D, down from 4.2 million B / D in December.

According to the report, Russia’s refining business in February increased by 5.3% over the previous month to 5.772 million barrels per day. At the same time, the refining capacity of the United States decreased by 13.3% from January to 12.67 million B / D, and the capacity of Saudi Arabia decreased by 2.6% to 2.281 million B / d.