Aluminum price rose 9.11% in April

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market in March was 18850 yuan / ton, reaching a new high in nearly a decade.

Aluminum prices rose 9.11% in April, mainly in the second half of April. After the middle of April, the price of aluminum went up again, breaking the 18000 mark and reaching 19000 yuan / ton.

List of upstream and downstream output data of aluminum ingot in March

Raw material: alumina

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China’s total alumina output in March was 6.5366 million tons, an increase of 11.3% over the same period last year, and the output in the first quarter was 19.23 million tons, an increase of 13.7% over the same period last year.

Downstream: Aluminum

In March, the total output of aluminum products in China was 5.367 million tons, an increase of 17.6% over the same period last year. In the first quarter, the output was 13.89 million tons, an increase of 31.1% over the same period last year.

Fundamentals of aluminum ingot

The rise of the market in April is mainly based on two factors:

First, the supply side capacity “ceiling” is expected to be strengthened. Due to the impact of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the new capacity of aluminum industry has been restricted in recent years. The market expects that the policy requirements or strict control of electrolytic aluminum capacity of 45 million tons “ceiling” will be implemented. Recently, Guizhou, Shandong and other places have banned illegal new capacity projects in electrolytic aluminum industry, and the new capacity is limited.

Second, the demand side of aluminum consumer side support is strong, aluminum social inventory is relatively low year on year.

To sum up, under the high price and profit, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum plants are basically in the state of full production, and the operating rate growth space is limited. Under the domestic carbon neutral target, with the implementation of China’s aluminum industry to accelerate the carbon peak target and the promotion of the local government’s “double control” policy of energy consumption, as a high-energy consumption industry, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity and output will be limited. Recently, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory turned into a downward trend, and the traditional consumption peak season gradually appeared, which strongly supported the aluminum price.

Capital factors

The US FOMC announced the latest interest rate resolution, keeping the benchmark interest rate in the range of 0% – 0.25%, the excess reserve ratio in the range of 0.1%, the discount rate in the range of 0.25%, and the monthly bond purchase scale in the range of 120 billion US dollars. The world’s major economies are expected to maintain a recovery momentum. In the early stage, the central bank eased its operation. In addition, the market situation is guided by the macro sentiment of the policy side and strengthened by multiple emotions.