In the first half of 2018, China’s non-ferrous metals industry faced complicated domestic and international situations, adhered to the concept of innovation and development, actively promoted high-quality development, and earnestly implemented supply-side structural reforms. The non-ferrous metal industry’s production remained generally stable. The output of ten non-ferrous metals increased steadily. The output of major non-ferrous metal mines decreased year-on-year. The output of alumina decreased from negative growth to positive growth. The output of copper processed materials increased steadily, and the growth rate of aluminum processed materials declined significantly.

In the second half of the year, China’s non-ferrous metal industry production is expected to continue its stable operation in the first half of the year. Wang Siran, deputy director of Jinrui Futures Research Institute, believes that the impact of macroeconomics on non-ferrous metals in the second half of the year is more neutral. The strong and weak relationship of various colored varieties is nickel, copper, aluminum, lead, tin and zinc.

Industry production runs smoothly

In the first half of 2018, the output of ten non-ferrous metals in the country was 26.8463 million tons, an increase of 3.15% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 4 percentage points compared with the same period of last year, which was basically the same as that of January-May this year. Among them, the refined copper output was 4,406,100 tons, up 11.50% year-on-year, the original aluminum output was 16.648 million tons, up 1.57% year-on-year, down 7.2 percentage points; the lead output was 2,145,400 tons, up 9.48% year-on-year, up 4.5 percentage points; zinc production 288.01 Ten thousand tons, down 0.01% year-on-year, down 1.2% over the same period of last year; alumina output was 33.34 million tons, up 1.1%, down 18.6 percentage points.

From an international perspective, the recovery of the major economies in the first half of this year has continued to increase, the US economy has recovered strongly, the European economy has continued to rebound, the Japanese economy has continued to recover moderately, and the comparative advantages of emerging economies have gradually expanded. However, the world economy still faces three major uncertainties, such as the appreciation of the US dollar, structural problems of economic growth, and increased trade friction. The growth gap between the United States and Europe and Japan has expanded in developed economies.

From the domestic point of view, China’s economic growth has continued to develop steadily and steadily since the beginning of this year, with stable transformation and upgrading, and continuous improvement in quality. The supply-side structural reform continued to advance, the new kinetic energy continued to strengthen, and the Chinese economy continued to maintain a stable and positive trend. The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 6.8%. Judging from the performance of macroeconomic indicators such as comprehensive economic growth and urban unemployment rate, China’s economy will maintain a steady, steady and stable momentum in the coming period. However, it should be noted that some hidden worries still exist, and domestic structural contradictions are still prominent. The downward pressure on economic growth, the slower growth of residents’ income, and the continued high growth of total retail sales of consumer goods are under pressure.

From the perspective of the non-ferrous metals industry, the production and operation of China’s non-ferrous metals industry is generally stable. In the first half of 2018, the non-ferrous metals industry realized a total profit of 79.82 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year. Affected by the warming of consumption, stricter environmental protection and supply-side reforms, the supply of non-ferrous metals continued to maintain a stable operation. However, the profit of non-ferrous metal enterprises dropped significantly year-on-year, especially for aluminum smelting enterprises to reproduce losses or meager profits. As the Sino-US trade friction continues to heat up, the international trade environment of the whole industry, especially aluminum exports, is deteriorating, and exports are under great pressure. In addition, the continued decline in investment in the non-ferrous metals industry has not changed.

Non-ferrous listed companies make good profits

In the first half of 2018, due to the increase in product prices, many non-ferrous listed companies made good profits. In the semi-annual report released by Chinalco recently, the company achieved operating income of 82.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 10.24% year-on-year; total profit was 1.93 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year; asset-liability ratio was 66.72%, lower than the beginning of the year. 0.55 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the company achieved a net cash flow of 6.74 billion yuan, a record high in the past five years. According to industry analysts, as the country’s capacity and environmental protection policies become stricter, non-standard enterprises will gradually withdraw from the market, and supply-side limited production will further improve the market supply and demand relationship and promote the price of alumina and aluminum.

According to China Securities Network, the western mining industry realized operating income of 14.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 5% from the same period of the previous year; realized a total profit of 992 million yuan, an increase of 111% over the same period of the previous year; and realized a net profit of 747 million yuan, compared with the previous year. The growth rate was 128% over the same period. In the evaluation of the first half of the year, Western Mining said that the acquisition of 82.96% equity of Dongdaliang was completed on January 4 this year. In the current period, it will be included in the consolidated financial statements of the company, which will contribute a lot to the company’s profits. The average selling price of lead concentrate, zinc concentrate and copper concentrate increased by 12%, 17% and 16% respectively over the same period of the previous year.

Mingtai Aluminum’s semi-annual report showed that the total operating income in the first half of the year was 5.96 billion yuan, an increase of 27.67% over the same period of the previous year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 254 million yuan, an increase of 41.26% over the same period of the previous year. Mintai Aluminum related people said that the performance growth was due to the success of resisting the external unfavorable factors, showing the company’s profitability and corporate vitality.

Non-ferrous industry analysts believe that the third quarter is the peak of the replenishment of various varieties such as cobalt and lithium, optimistic about the price of some small varieties. At the same time, the second half of the year can focus on the development trend of alumina, nickel and other varieties.

Industry boom may decline

Since 2018, China’s copper industry has faced new smelting capacity and production momentum, and the external pressure is facing the complicated and changing international situation of Sino-US trade friction. The overall performance of the copper industry is not as expected. The industrial operation is mainly as follows: Five characteristics: First, the overall decline in industrial investment, but smelting investment is hot, capacity will be further expanded. Second, the output still grows, but the consumption is flat and destocking is slow. Third, the increase in copper mines is limited, the import of scrap copper is limited, and the gap in raw material supply is widening. Fourth, the price is under pressure and the industry’s profitability has dropped. Fifth, Sino-US trade frictions have intensified, and there are many macro uncertainties. It is expected that in the third quarter of 2018, China’s copper industry will still face the imbalance of industrial selection and smelting, the expansion of raw material supply gap, and the upgrading of Sino-US trade. In the short term, the copper industry comprehensive prosperity index is still operating in the “normal” range, but the comprehensive prosperity index maybe Will decline.

In the first half of 2018, the average daily output of electrolytic aluminum was 90,000 tons, down 1.0% year-on-year; the average daily output of alumina was 190,000 tons, down 9.3% year-on-year. Although the overall performance of domestic aluminum major consumption sectors such as construction and transportation is relatively flat, aluminum consumption has continued to grow. At the same time, the company’s independent adjustment of the export market to reduce the impact of Sino-US trade friction, coupled with the sharp depreciation of the renminbi, aluminum exports performed better than expected. From the operating environment in the second half of 2018, the aluminum smelting industry will face many uncertain factors. The domestic aspects include: special treatment plan for coal-fired self-supplied power plants; implementation of air pollution prevention and control in autumn and winter in various regions; and speed of projecting of electrolytic aluminum compliance projects. International aspects include: Sino-US trade friction risk; the final US sanctions against Russian aluminum; the progress of the recovery of the Brazilian alumina plant in Hydro.

In 2018, the lead and zinc industry faced double pressure from environmental protection and raw material supply, and the output growth was limited; the intra-industry mining and metallurgical profit differentiation was intensified, and the consumption power was insufficient. The overall operation trend of the industry is mainly reflected in the hot investment in renewable lead production, which drives the growth of industrial investment; the pressure of environmentally-added raw materials supply, the output declines; the primary consumption of the industry declines year-on-year, the end consumption power is insufficient; the trend of lead and zinc prices is different, within the industry The differentiation of mining and metallurgical profits has intensified; the environmental protection requirements have been continuously improved, and the pressure of metal pollution prevention and control in lead and zinc industries has been highlighted. It is expected that environmental protection will remain the focus of lead and zinc industry operation in the third quarter. Production smelting enterprises will arrange production according to actual operation conditions. Consumers will enter lead consumption season or lead consumption. The future development trend of recycled lead industry remains to be seen. Observed. In the short term, the lead and zinc industry will still be in the “normal” range.

It is expected that in the second half of 2018, non-ferrous metal production will still be expected to maintain stable operation. The price of non-ferrous metals continues to fluctuate at the current price level, and production costs rise. However, non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises have achieved significant decline in profit growth, industry fixed asset investment and non-ferrous metal products exports. Still difficult to have obvious improvement.