1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1428 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1490.75 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.39% and a year-on-year increase of 27.61%. On October 22, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 115.75, up 2.12 points compared with yesterday, 25.61% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), 73.05% higher than 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The main reason for the rise in the price of petroleum coke is the shortage of supply. The supply of low sulfur coke is less, and the market transaction is better. The supply of medium and high sulfur coke is insufficient, the downstream demand is acceptable, and there are many maintenance manufacturers, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke is rising.

Upstream: in the short term, the oil market will still be suppressed by demand, and the supply side will not be favorable. At present, OPEC + production reduction is still in accordance with the agreement reached before, and there is still no new policy trend. Moreover, the United States is in the middle of the general election, and there are great differences between the two parties in the implementation of the new fiscal stimulus policy. Considering comprehensively, oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the near future.

Downstream: in the near future, the carbon market shipment is OK, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum high-level shock has played a supporting role. However, the profits of carbon enterprises are not high, so it is expected to operate under pressure in the near future. Metal silicon market because of the strong sales sentiment of enterprises, the price may rise steadily. In terms of steam coal, the domestic power plant inventory is at a high level, and the demand for winter storage and replenishment of key power plants exists, and the inventory continues to rise. The power plant has a large inventory, but the winter heating season is coming, and the power plant still needs to replenish the storage of steam coal. It is estimated that the short-term steam coal price will still be dominated by the overall operation within the range.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 41 th week (10.12-10.16) of 2020, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities of increase are methanol (5.75%), liquefied natural gas (4.17%) and liquefied gas (1.62%). There were 5 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were asphalt (- 1.20%), MTBE (- 1.10%) and naphtha (- 0.37%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.77%.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: the current price of petroleum coke is rising due to tight supply of goods, and some manufacturers’ maintenance is good for the petroleum coke. It is predicted that the trend of Petroleum Coke will be better in the short term or continue. The specific situation depends on the demand of downstream market.