Commodity index: on October 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 18.10% from 107.13 (May 8, 2019), and increased by 5.85% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring data showed that the price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was stable in the last week of October. This month, the manufacturer’s production is normal, the price fluctuation is very small, the demand is not as good as polyaluminum chloride, and the transaction atmosphere is relatively peaceful. Domestic manufacturers of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) this week, the quotation range is about 13800-14300 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: upstream: at the end of August, the mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile was 8450 yuan / ton, at the end of September, it was about 8750 yuan / ton. In October, the quotation of acrylonitrile was raised several times, and the last week was about 9300 yuan / ton. At present, the main domestic manufacturers’ plant status: Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile plant was shut down for maintenance on October 17, and it was postponed to the end of the month for restart and recovery. In October, Sinopec implemented 9000 yuan / ton of acrylonitrile settlement price in East China and 9050 yuan / ton in North China. The 260000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Formosa Plastics Chemical Co., Ltd., located in Mailiao, will maintain full load operation in November. In addition, it is planned to shut down for maintenance for about four weeks from January 8, 2021. Japan Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. implemented the price of acrylonitrile CP in November at 1300 USD / T. Downstream: in terms of the characteristics of the traditional sales season, the demand for sewage treatment downstream of water treatment should be increased this month. Up to now, the price of polyacrylamide has only increased by about 2% at the end of September. After that, the price has been basically stable, with few increases. This shows that the downstream demand is not as good as expected, but as far as the market is concerned, there are still a few manufacturers due to sales and sales The inventory situation and price have increased to a certain extent, and the relative range is not very large. The market expects that the heating season will come, and the environmental protection requirements will stimulate the demand for polyacrylamide, which will improve in the future.

Industry situation: since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. In September, it remained stable after a small shock, and the amplitude of the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. Although the prosperity of the industry increased in October, the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuels. Although the price of polyacrylamide raw materials also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not rise as much as that of polyaluminum chloride.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, due to the influence of market demand and environment, the production and sales of water treatment industry last month were relatively stable, and the price fluctuation was very small, basically close to stable; this month, the traditional golden sales period of “Jinjiu” was undertaken, and the price of polyacrylamide was increased to a certain extent at the end of last month and the beginning of this month. The coming of the follow-up heating season and the requirements of environmental protection and other aspects will continue to affect the market of water treatment products The price of polyacrylamide may rise steadily with some improvement; meanwhile, we should be aware of the impact of strict environmental protection requirements on the market due to the requirement of stopping production and rectification for some manufacturers.