1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency, the price of steam coal rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 573 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 608.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 6.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.47%. On March 7, the steam coal commodity index was 73.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.35% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 64.00% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of producing areas, at the time of the two sessions, the overall production capacity has shrunk slightly. Due to the recovery of downstream industries, the demand for coal is increasing, and the number of coal hauling cars in coal mines is increasing significantly. The sales situation of mining areas in Shaanxi continued to improve, and the coal mines in the main producing areas increased.

In terms of downstream power plants: with the warming weather, the demand for civil power has dropped, but with the industrial enterprises in the downstream of steam coal gradually returning to normal production, the demand for steam coal has increased, the industrial power consumption is relatively strong, and the daily consumption of power plants has rebounded to a certain extent. The decline of thermal coal inventory drives the demand of power plants for thermal coal replenishment. Some data show that the inventory of power plants has fallen. Affected by the recent delay in purchasing and the rise of daily consumption, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces has dropped from 28 million tons to 27 million tons. But now traders are more wait-and-see attitude, price is very selling.

Macro: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on March 4, the national coal price fell in late February. The specific price changes of all kinds of coal are as follows: anthracite (washing block, volatile matter ≤ 8%) price is 950 yuan / ton, the same as the previous period. The price of ordinary blended coal (Shanxi pulverized coal and lump coal blended coal, calorific value 4500 kcal) was 461 yuan / ton, down 31.5 yuan / ton or 6.4% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahua (better quality blended coal with calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 514.5 yuan / ton, down 35.5 yuan / ton or 6.5% compared with the previous period. Shanxi Youhun (high quality blended coal, calorific value 5500 kcal) price was 585.5 yuan / ton, down 52 yuan / ton or 8.2% compared with the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (Datong blended coal, calorific value 5800 kcal) was 619 yuan / ton, down 48.5 yuan / ton or 7.3% compared with the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) is 1540 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous period. The above data show that the national anthracite and coking coal prices remained stable in late February, while the steam coal prices continued to fall. In addition, in late February, the national price of coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2646 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton or 2.9% from the previous period.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the daily consumption of power plants is rising, which drives the demand of power plants for steam coal replenishment, and traders mainly sell at low prices. The price of steam coal may have favorable support, and the price will rise. However, at this stage, the overall downstream demand has not been released, and the overall acceptance of the high price of steam coal is limited. On the whole, the price of steam coal may keep rising during the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited on the whole, and it depends on the downstream market demand.